Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.Short Term...Tonight thru Friday...
Shaping up to be an active evening of severe weather and heavy
rainfall across the forecast area. As per yesterday, the closed low
that was over Colorado has moved northeast into the eastern Plains,
while an upper level ridge remained in place across the southeastern
US. The result was a southwesterly flow aloft, with several
shortwaves moving through the flow.

Here across Arkansas, a fairly deep moist layer was in place across
the area with a southerly/southwesterly flow, and a frontal boundary
was advancing southeastward across the southern Plains.

The 12Z LIT sounding showed an unstable airmass in place early in
the day, with no cap in place. As the morning progressed, quite a
bit of scattered, weak convection had freely developed across the
southwestern and western portions of the state. Existing flash flood
watch that is in place looks good. A special 18Z sounding was
conducted, and shows that the layer below 700 mb has moistened up
further, and the atmosphere has continued to destabilize. Surface
based CAPE from the 18Z LIT sounding indicated uncapped values in
excess of 6000 j/kg. Interpreting the skew-T, I would say that mean
mixed layer values were probably more in the range of 4000 j/kg,
still impressive to say the least.

Shear values across the area were relatively weak, which is
fortunate considering how unstable the airmass is. Ongoing
convection across the northwest portions of the state is presently
showing relatively little rotation.

Overall the impressive convective parameters this afternoon coupled
with the low-shear environment point to multicellular convection
with a very heavy rainfall threat, along with the potential for
microbursts and large hail. Tornadoes will be a threat this evening
if convection develops along any old outflow boundaries, and along
the leading edge of storms if/when the event evolves into a QLCS
overnight.

By tomorrow, the cold front will finally move into the state and
usher in drier weather in its wake.

In regards to the ongoing flooding along the Arkansas river, the
flood crest is gradually making its way down the river from western
Arkansas. Any additional rainfall that occurs within the basin
tonight will probably have little, if any, effect on the crest,
unless excessive rainfall over the upstream Oklahoma basins cause
additional strain on the flood storage capacities of reservoirs in
those areas. Most likely, the primary result will be an extension of
the length of flooding.

&&

.Long Term...Friday night thru Wednesday...
Model guidance continues to indicate a return of northwesterly
flow to the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley by
this weekend into early next week. H500 ridging will extend
northward across Texas, with a deep low near New England, and
another low across the Pacific Southwest.

With this pattern in place, as occasional pieces of shortwave energy
pass over the state some rain chances will be seen at times. A cold
front will likely move through late Sunday into Monday, which will
bring increased rain chances to the area.

While widespread heavy rainfall isn't currently anticipated, given
the setup, some MCS activity could pose a localized heavy
rain/thunderstorm threat.

High temperatures through the period will be in the 80s and 90s,
with lows overnight in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  82  61  83 /  90  20  10   0
Camden AR         70  86  62  87 /  40  30   0  10
Harrison AR       60  76  58  81 /  80  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    67  83  61  85 /  90  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  69  85  64  86 /  70  30   0   0
Monticello AR     71  86  65  87 /  10  30  10  10
Mount Ida AR      65  82  59  83 /  90  20   0  10
Mountain Home AR  62  79  59  82 /  90  20   0  10
Newport AR        66  83  62  84 /  90  30  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  85  64  86 /  40  30  10   0
Russellville AR   65  82  60  84 /  90  20   0  10
Searcy AR         67  84  62  85 /  80  30  10   0
Stuttgart AR      71  85  63  85 /  40  30  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Pike-Polk-Pope-Scott-
Searcy-Yell.

&&

Short Term...53 / Long Term...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
438 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
438 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
morning across portions of northern Arkansas. Another round or two
of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening across a good portion of the state. Some
storms could be strong to severe. Damaging winds and large hail
would be the main concerns with any severe storms. An isolated
tornado can not be ruled out as well.

Localized flash flooding will be a concern over the northwestern
half of the state where two to four inches of rainfall will be
possible through tonight. Localized higher amounts will be
possible.

The Arkansas River will continue to rise. Major flooding is
expected through tonight west of Conway. This includes water over
roads, many acres of land, and engulfing some homes and
businesses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Major flooding is expected at most forecast points along the
Arkansas River. This will be an historic event, with record or near
record crests in some cases. Crests will begin to occur at points
upstream of Morrilton by Friday, with areas downstream expected to
crest this weekend through next week. Arkansas River levels will
remain high for several days, perhaps into mid-June.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across
northern and western Arkansas.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

230

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
424 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             1 NW CLINTON            35.59N  92.46W
05/29/2019  E1.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          AR   LOCAL OFFICIAL

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN CLINTON, AR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1900101

CROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
437 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ022-023-031-038-039-292230-
Pope AR-Perry AR-Van Buren AR-Yell AR-Conway AR-
437 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN VAN
BUREN...CONWAY...EAST CENTRAL YELL AND SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms from
near Broomfield to Atkins to 10 miles southwest of Adona. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Morrilton...
Perryville...                     Atkins...
Pottsville...                     Dover...
Oppelo...                         Hector...
Menifee...                        Perry...
Adona...                          Houston...
Bethlehem...                      Sequoya Park...
Hill Creek...                     Happy Bend...
Hattieville...                    Jerusalem...
Toad Suck...                      Blick...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central and
north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 9249 3527 9249 3526 9251 3524 9250
      3523 9253 3519 9253 3518 9250 3515 9250
      3511 9252 3513 9254 3512 9255 3506 9254
      3500 9260 3498 9259 3496 9257 3486 9307
      3524 9308 3548 9312 3563 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 255DEG 24KT 3543 9303 3526 9300 3491 9299

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
447 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ023-024-032-292230-
Van Buren AR-Faulkner AR-Cleburne AR-
447 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE AND NORTH CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Guy, or 16 miles south of Fairfield Bay, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Heber Springs...                  Fairfield Bay...
Greers Ferry...                   Quitman...
Damascus...                       Higden...
Fairbanks...                      Sugar Loaf Recreation Area...
Edgemont...                       Southside in Van Buren County...
Morganton...                      Eden Isle...
Pearson...                        Narrows Marina...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3532 9229 3536 9247 3562 9223 3547 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 229DEG 16KT 3538 9229

65

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
453 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 35.58N 92.45W
05/29/2019                   VAN BUREN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES WERE DOWN NEAR HWY. 65 AND OLD HWY. 9. NO
            POWER AT THE SHERIFF OFFICE.

&&

51

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
456 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ007-008-017-292245-
Lawrence AR-Randolph AR-Sharp AR-
456 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE
AND NORTHEASTERN SHARP COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Alton to near Ravenden Springs
to 7 miles west of Annieville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas...                     Imboden...
Ravenden...                       Maynard...
Ravenden Springs...               Annieville...
Dalton...                         Attica...
Williford...                      Armstrong...
Middlebrook...                    Ingram...
Shannon...                        Wirth...
Birdell...                        Elnora...
Elkins Park...                    Brakebill...
Warm Springs...                   Eleven Point...

LAT...LON 3638 9083 3618 9088 3607 9143 3631 9136
      3650 9144 3650 9088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 257DEG 25KT 3656 9137 3633 9128 3612 9136

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     REHMS CORNER            35.08N  92.80W
05/29/2019  E60 MPH          CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ABOVE 60 MPH NEAR TIMBER LAKE
            RESERVOIR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1900102

CROSS