Tornado Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

499 
WWUS54 KLUB 052351
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
651 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXC169-305-060015-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190506T0015Z/
Lynn TX-Garza TX-
651 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LYNN AND SOUTHWESTERN GARZA COUNTIES...
    
At 650 PM CDT, a tornado was located 4 miles southwest of Grassland, 
or 9 miles southeast of Tahoka, and is nearly stationary.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grassland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid 
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, 
move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from 
flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3314 10180 3324 10161 3296 10128 3296 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 307DEG 3KT 3309 10165 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

55

382 
WWUS54 KLUB 052356
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
656 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXC169-305-060015-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190506T0015Z/
Lynn TX-Garza TX-
656 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LYNN AND SOUTHWESTERN GARZA COUNTIES...
    
At 655 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm likely producing a tornado was 
located 5 miles southeast of Tahoka, moving west at 15 mph. This 
tornado is likely hidden in rain and cannot be seen.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Grassland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3314 10180 3324 10161 3296 10128 3296 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 087DEG 12KT 3311 10173 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

55

978 
WWUS54 KLUB 060007
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
707 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXC169-060015-
/O.CAN.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190506T0015Z/
Garza TX-
707 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GARZA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning will 
not reach Garza County. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3314 10180 3324 10161 3320 10156 3296 10156
      3296 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 307DEG 3KT 3310 10172 

$$

TXC305-060015-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190506T0015Z/
Lynn TX-
707 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LYNN COUNTY...
    
At 705 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles southeast of Tahoka, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Grassland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3314 10180 3324 10161 3320 10156 3296 10156
      3296 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 307DEG 3KT 3310 10172 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

55

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
228 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Severe storms are once again in the hopper for later this afternoon
and evening, but compared to yesterday's event the setup today
involves a much broader and stronger area of both CAPE and wind
shear. Observations at 2 PM showed a thermal low near western
Cochran County coincident with an axis of strong heating and
superadiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. This has already yielded a
pocket of towering cumulus along a N-S dryline and should become
the primary focus for storm initiation in the coming hour(s) as
vertical mixing remains maximized in this vicinity. Aside from
the dryline poised just east of TX and NM border, a residual
boundary of weakly convergent flow was aligned roughly along
Highway 84 and this could serve as a railway for a few supercells
to anchor to later today. Otherwise, the environment is more
unstable than yesterday with SBCAPEs already over 3000 J/kg
spanning much of the Caprock. Around 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk
shear will again prove more than sufficient for supercell modes,
likely more robust and longer lasting than yesterday's abbreviated
supercells. A few tornadoes are again possible mainly near the
aforementioned NW-SE boundary and also as 0-1 km shear improves
this evening with a 30-40 knot southeasterly LLJ. We expect
scattered supercells (some splitting given largely straight line
hodographs) to transition off the Caprock by early evening under
mostly zonal flow and perhaps grow upscale into small lines at
times provided outflows can consolidate.

Following another round of overnight and early morning stratus
over much of the region, the dryline on Monday is progged to be
more diffuse locally underneath shortwave ridging, rising height
fields, and more importantly less veered surface flow to its west.
Complete with 700 mb temps warming a few degrees, this setup could
prove more hostile for deep convection. However, this forecaster
and many of my colleagues have lived here long enough to know
that you should rarely dismiss the dryline in such marginal
setups. Stronger heating will likely breed some attempts at moist
convection which could easily skyrocket into isolated supercells
given still favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles. The
HREF and TTU WRF appear quite optimistic in this scenario and the
subsequent upscale growth of storms in the evening, but we're a
bit skeptical of this broad coverage of storms given no discernible
background triggers within weak anticyclonic flow aloft. As such,
we'll keep PoPs tomorrow afternoon just at slight chance in
expectation of spottier storms.

Tuesday still has the makings of a potentially significant severe
event anywhere from the TX South Plains north to southwest KS as
a dryline sharpens considerably in response to deeper SW flow
ahead of a robust upper trough. The usual concern in these
situations is antecedent convection and its effects on boundaries
which is at odds among some models. Concern is that the NAM may
very well be correct with its accelerated cold front into the
Panhandle Mon night via convective outflows. The blended models
still account for this time at this time, so we've left this
scenario intact which favors a synoptic front or merely outflow
boundary in our northern zones Tue afternoon. The intersection of
these boundaries and the dryline would be the main focus for
significant severe storms, but nearly the whole length of the
dryline appears fair game for storms especially by the evening as
the peak height falls and a Pacific front arrive. A quick inspection
of the broader environmental data says some significant tornadoes
could be in the offing anywhere east of the dryline Tue afternoon
and evening which will obviously bear watch in later forecasts.

Storms should quickly clear the region by daybreak Wed ahead of
breezy west winds and deepening subsidence aloft. Thereafter, a
modified Canadian front sweeps south Wed night ahead of a slow
moving low in the Desert SW that should not impact the region
until next weekend at the earliest. GFS and ECMWF favor a lead
trough ejecting from this low o/a Friday which could easily spur
rounds of elevated showers atop the cool dome. High temps may
need to be curbed considerably Friday and Saturday. Additional
precip seems plausible Sun into Mon as the aforementioned low
finally lifts across Texas and much closer to our domain than
prior models and ensembles suggested.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1123 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ021>044-060430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1123 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening especially along and east of US Highway 385.
Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will also be
possible across the Rolling Plains and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle. Hail to 3 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph
will be possible along with isolated tornadoes. In addition, slow
moving storms may cause local flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. More widespread coverage of severe
thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE TAHOKA            33.21N 101.78W
05/05/2019  M62 MPH          LYNN               TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900317

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
601 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             TULIA                   34.54N 101.77W
05/05/2019  E1.00 INCH       SWISHER            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL, FEW AS LARGE AS QUARTERS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900318

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             TULIA                   34.54N 101.77W
05/05/2019  E1.75 INCH       SWISHER            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900319

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE TAHOKA            33.21N 101.78W
05/05/2019  M65 MPH          LYNN               TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900320

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E TAHOKA              33.16N 101.77W
05/05/2019                   LYNN               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES FALLING AS CHASER DRIVING DOWN HWY 380 EAST
            OF TAHOKA IN RFD WINDS..SEEN ON CHASER VIDEO LIVE ON TV

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900321

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TORNADO          4 WNW GRASSLAND         33.16N 101.66W
05/05/2019                   LYNN               TX   STORM CHASER

            FM1054 AND FM2956

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900322

JGD