Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
228 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Severe storms are once again in the hopper for later this afternoon
and evening, but compared to yesterday's event the setup today
involves a much broader and stronger area of both CAPE and wind
shear. Observations at 2 PM showed a thermal low near western
Cochran County coincident with an axis of strong heating and
superadiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. This has already yielded a
pocket of towering cumulus along a N-S dryline and should become
the primary focus for storm initiation in the coming hour(s) as
vertical mixing remains maximized in this vicinity. Aside from
the dryline poised just east of TX and NM border, a residual
boundary of weakly convergent flow was aligned roughly along
Highway 84 and this could serve as a railway for a few supercells
to anchor to later today. Otherwise, the environment is more
unstable than yesterday with SBCAPEs already over 3000 J/kg
spanning much of the Caprock. Around 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk
shear will again prove more than sufficient for supercell modes,
likely more robust and longer lasting than yesterday's abbreviated
supercells. A few tornadoes are again possible mainly near the
aforementioned NW-SE boundary and also as 0-1 km shear improves
this evening with a 30-40 knot southeasterly LLJ. We expect
scattered supercells (some splitting given largely straight line
hodographs) to transition off the Caprock by early evening under
mostly zonal flow and perhaps grow upscale into small lines at
times provided outflows can consolidate.

Following another round of overnight and early morning stratus
over much of the region, the dryline on Monday is progged to be
more diffuse locally underneath shortwave ridging, rising height
fields, and more importantly less veered surface flow to its west.
Complete with 700 mb temps warming a few degrees, this setup could
prove more hostile for deep convection. However, this forecaster
and many of my colleagues have lived here long enough to know
that you should rarely dismiss the dryline in such marginal
setups. Stronger heating will likely breed some attempts at moist
convection which could easily skyrocket into isolated supercells
given still favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles. The
HREF and TTU WRF appear quite optimistic in this scenario and the
subsequent upscale growth of storms in the evening, but we're a
bit skeptical of this broad coverage of storms given no discernible
background triggers within weak anticyclonic flow aloft. As such,
we'll keep PoPs tomorrow afternoon just at slight chance in
expectation of spottier storms.

Tuesday still has the makings of a potentially significant severe
event anywhere from the TX South Plains north to southwest KS as
a dryline sharpens considerably in response to deeper SW flow
ahead of a robust upper trough. The usual concern in these
situations is antecedent convection and its effects on boundaries
which is at odds among some models. Concern is that the NAM may
very well be correct with its accelerated cold front into the
Panhandle Mon night via convective outflows. The blended models
still account for this time at this time, so we've left this
scenario intact which favors a synoptic front or merely outflow
boundary in our northern zones Tue afternoon. The intersection of
these boundaries and the dryline would be the main focus for
significant severe storms, but nearly the whole length of the
dryline appears fair game for storms especially by the evening as
the peak height falls and a Pacific front arrive. A quick inspection
of the broader environmental data says some significant tornadoes
could be in the offing anywhere east of the dryline Tue afternoon
and evening which will obviously bear watch in later forecasts.

Storms should quickly clear the region by daybreak Wed ahead of
breezy west winds and deepening subsidence aloft. Thereafter, a
modified Canadian front sweeps south Wed night ahead of a slow
moving low in the Desert SW that should not impact the region
until next weekend at the earliest. GFS and ECMWF favor a lead
trough ejecting from this low o/a Friday which could easily spur
rounds of elevated showers atop the cool dome. High temps may
need to be curbed considerably Friday and Saturday. Additional
precip seems plausible Sun into Mon as the aforementioned low
finally lifts across Texas and much closer to our domain than
prior models and ensembles suggested.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1123 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ021>044-060430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1123 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening especially along and east of US Highway 385.
Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will also be
possible across the Rolling Plains and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle. Hail to 3 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph
will be possible along with isolated tornadoes. In addition, slow
moving storms may cause local flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. More widespread coverage of severe
thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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