Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Convective initiation began early again this afternoon as soon as
low stratus cleared out in eastern New Mexico. This activity will
continue to move to the northeast within high CAPE but capped air.
This cap is still expected to slowly erode through the rest of the
afternoon as low stratus continues to clear. Low level shear
remains weak but very low cloud bases will allow isolated
tornadoes to continue to be possible with any storm. Additional
development is possible in the southwestern South Plains into
southeastern New Mexico later this afternoon with mixed layer CAPE
around 2500 J/kg in mostly uncapped air. It is unclear on how much
eastward movement will occur with any convection that has already
developed or any future development.

Much stronger lift will move overhead Sunday afternoon. A strong
short wave trough will move out over New Mexico along with a 110kt
jet streak at 250mb. Although most of the large scale lift will
move out over the central Plains, isolated dryline convection is
expected from the South Plains southward into the Permian Basin.
Mid and upper level flow will be increasing so shear and
instability will continue to promote severe rotating supercells
for Sunday afternoon with any storm that does develop. However,
models do show stronger capping on Sunday afternoon which may
delay the onset of initiation until very late afternoon. A long
shot possibility is that the cap holds and prevents any
convection from developing.

We will retain southwest flow aloft on Monday as the center of the
upper level low moves across the central Rockies. This will act to
push the dryline off the caprock. There will be sufficient
instability for thunderstorms and possibly even severe
thunderstorms in the eastern Rolling Plains on Monday. However,
strong capping may be an issue again preventing any convective
initiation. Drier air will sweep into the area on Tuesday putting
a brief kibosh on any potential thunderstorm development. A cold
front will follow Wednesday morning bringing an increase to low
level moisture. A little later on Wednesday, a short wave will
move overhead with lift favoring the Rolling Plains. Elevated
instability will exist above the frontal air mass with little
chances of severe thunderstorms. Low level moisture will begin to
surge back on Thursday in advance of the next upper level trough
moving into the western CONUS. Quality low level moisture will not
return until Friday. Models are depicting a short wave moving
overhead on Friday out ahead of the parent trough in the western
CONUS. With better moisture in the area, this will bring severe
thunderstorm chances back to West Texas. Southwest flow aloft
looks to remain through the weekend but details are unclear at
the moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ024>026-028>037-
039>041.

&&

01

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

TXZ021>044-260415-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop early
to mid afternoon across eastern New Mexico and push into the
western South Plains and the extreme southwestern Panhandle. Very
heavy rainfall, hail to the size of golf balls, and wind gusts to
70 mph are the main threats. Isolated tornadoes will also be
possible. There remains some uncertainty on how far east severe
thunderstorms will push later this evening. A Flood Watch is in
effect for the South Plains, northern Rolling Plains, and extreme
southeastern Panhandle through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across the western South
Plains early this afternoon and into the central South Plains late
this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             SILVERTON               34.47N 101.30W
05/25/2019  E1.00 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WINDS 40-50 MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900478

JDV