Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1208 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.AVIATION...
Low confidence TAF forecast for the next 24 hours due to
uncertainties on thunderstorm timing and ceiling heights. IFR
conditions remain at KLBB/KPVW with MVFR ceilings at KCDS. Models
have forecasted ceilings to increase into MVFR and eventually VFR
at all three TAF sites but timing appears to be too early based on
current observations and trends. If we remain IFR through much of
the afternoon, chances for storms at all three TAF sites is
overdone. If we clear out, storms could form over the TAFs at any
time. Best time for MVFR to IFR will be late this afternoon
through early evening before another round of IFR to LIFR
conditions develops Sunday morning at all three TAF sites. Because
of the low confidence, expect amendments through the afternoon as
conditions evolve.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1125 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019/

UPDATE...
Only minor changes were made to the forecast for the rest of
today. Conditions are similar to yesterday in regards to the fact
that convective initiation is likely but location is highly
uncertain. However, recent signs point towards eastern New Mexico
into the western South Plains.

A weak short wave aloft will continue to move northeast out of
northern Mexico into eastern New Mexico. CAMs do not offer a clear
picture of how today is going to evolve. Several number of
scenarios could play out today given the complexity of the lower
atmosphere this morning. So, confidence in any scenario is low. A
low level theta-e axis oriented from south to north will spread
northward into the western South Plains this afternoon, east of
the dryline. Areas across the Rolling Plains cannot be discounted
this afternoon with nearly as much instability as the western
South Plains. A cap is currently in place across much of the area
where widespread low stratus has kept surface temperatures cool.
However, this may also give the atmosphere more time to build up
instability for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Overall
instability values are perhaps slightly less than observed in
previous days with mixed layer CAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg.
Atmospheric shear is roughly unchanged from yesterday with 0-3
helicity values around 100-200 this afternoon. Lower level
helicity will not increase until the early evening as the low
level jet increases again. Therefore, isolated tornadoes will
still be possible with any convection that develops but is not
expected to be the main threat. Deep layer shear of 45-50kt will
continue to support rotating supercells and large hail as the
primary threat. Last but not least, flooding will also be a major
concern. Precipitable water values range from 1.0 inches in the
western South Plains to 1.6 inches in the Rolling Plains which is
about 150-175 percent of normal. Heavy rain on an already
saturated ground will only lead to additional flooding issues.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ024>026-028>037-
039>041.

&&

14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

TXZ021>044-260415-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop early
to mid afternoon across eastern New Mexico and push into the
western South Plains and the extreme southwestern Panhandle. Very
heavy rainfall, hail to the size of golf balls, and wind gusts to
70 mph are the main threats. Isolated tornadoes will also be
possible. There remains some uncertainty on how far east severe
thunderstorms will push later this evening. A Flood Watch is in
effect for the South Plains, northern Rolling Plains, and extreme
southeastern Panhandle through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across the western South
Plains early this afternoon and into the central South Plains late
this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
830 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             9 SE FLOYDADA           33.89N 101.23W
05/24/2019  E1.50 INCH       FLOYD              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900477

JDV