Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS St. Louis, MO

219 
WWUS53 KLSX 212249
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
549 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

MOC055-073-212258-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-190521T2300Z/
Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-
549 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3814 9100 3881 9127 3890 9111 3887 9110
      3887 9096 3889 9095 3864 9073 3820 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 270DEG 38KT 3891 9120 3839 9100 

$$

MOC071-183-219-221-212300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-190521T2300Z/
St. Charles MO-Washington MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
549 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EASTERN
FRANKLIN AND WARREN COUNTIES...

At 548 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hawk Point to near St. Clair, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Wentzville, Washington, Union, Warrenton, Pacific, St. Clair, Wright
City, Gray Summit, Villa Ridge, Marthasville, Truesdale, Innsbrook,
New Melle, Parkway, Augusta, Defiance, Treloar, Dutzow, Lonedell and
Foristell.

This also includes Robertsville State Park.
 
This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 239 and 257.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 193 and 203.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 9100 3881 9127 3890 9111 3887 9110
      3887 9096 3889 9095 3864 9073 3820 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 270DEG 38KT 3891 9120 3839 9100 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
441 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Line of thunderstorms is expected to move northeast across the CWA
late this afternoon and early this evening. Atmosphere has rapidly
destabilized ahead of it as 60s and lower 70 dewpoints have surged
north into the southern CWA allowing for MLCAPES to jump into the
1000-1500+ J/kg range. This is further evidenced by the appearance
of a well developed cumulus field that is moving northward into
the CWA. Latest RAP low level convergence fields supports CAMS
simulated reflectivity which depicts the current line progressing
eastward across the CWA through the evening. Deep layer and low
layer shear supports the line producing damaging winds with
embedded tornadoes and perhaps some hail given the steep lapse
rates. In addition any discrete storms that do develop ahead of
the line will also be capable of producing all hazards.

Will continue the flash flood watch until midnight. While the line
will be progressive, it will have very heavy rainfall rates.
Therefore cannot rule out a flash flood threat given the already
wet ground over the area. This line will move east of the CWA
after midnight with dry conditions expect by 12Z.

Wednesday looks like about one of the only dry days as the there
will be no upper systems moving across the area. By Wednesday
night however, both the NAM/GFS are showing another weak shortwave
moving over the area at the some time that a front will be aligned
over Missouri and Illinois. Will go with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms as there may be some chance for a few strong storms.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The extended part of the forecast will be highlighted by warm
temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms through the Memorial
Day weekend. The GEFS and deterministic models are in reasonable
agreement into early next week that east-west front set up
underneath quasi-zonal upper flow. This will be between a large
upper high over the southeastern CONUS and trough over the
southwest. Coverage of thunderstorms over our area will be
determined by the ultimate location of the front and how much
upper ridging will be over the CWA. For now will keep with above
normal temperatures given forecast 850mb temperatures between
15-20C and a persistent chance of thunderstorms.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Line of thunderstorms over southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas will continue to develop and move northeast this
afternoon. These storms will move into the St. Louis area
terminals late this afternoon and early this evening with the
potential to produce wind gusts 45KTS. Otherwise, extensive MVFR
and low VFR ceilings are expected until the thunderstorms move
through during the evening hours. Then dry and VFR conditions are
expected.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected through this evening. A line of
thunderstorms will move through the terminal between 23-01Z this
evening with the potential for up to 45KT or greater winds and IFR
ceilings and visibilites. Once the storms move through this
evening, then dry and VFR conditions are expected after 06Z.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-222100-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening. Damaging wind is the
primary threat, with isolated tornadoes and large hail also
possible.

A flash flood watch is in effect until midnight tonight. Locally
heavy rain from last night combined with expected heavy rain from
thunderstorms this evening may produce dangerous flash flooding.

Major river flooding is ongoing along portions of the Illinois
River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Major river flooding is expected over the next week along the
Mississippi, Missouri, and Illinois Rivers. Crests at some locations
will be close to or greater than what were seen earlier this year.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue from Wednesday night
through Monday across parts of our area. A few strong to severe
storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday over central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening across much of
the area.

Britt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
451 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAKE MYKEE              38.68N 92.10W
05/21/2019  M58 MPH          CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TORNADO          5 SE AUXVASSE           38.97N 91.83W
05/21/2019                   CALLAWAY           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE STATION CALLED TO REPORT TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND.

&&

MRM