Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 142, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 21, 2019Lewis County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at May 21, 2019, 8:10 AM CDT for Lewis County, Missouri. It took effect at May 21, 2019, 2:24 PM CDT. It was in force for 66 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2019, 8:10 AM CDT (13:10 UTC)
In effect from: May 21, 2019, 2:24 PM CDT
Expired: May 24, 2019, 8:19 AM CDT
In force: 66 hr
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Moderate

County Lewis County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 172 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point North Fabius River near Ewing (EWNM7). The gauge peaked at 15.88 ft at May 23, 2019, 7:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 9 ft
Minor stage: 11 ft
Moderate stage: 17 ft
Major stage: 20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05497150, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

099 
WGUS43 KLSX 211310
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
810 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Missouri... 

  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  North River at Palmyra

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-221310-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0142.190522T0100Z-190525T1800Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190522T0100Z.190523T0600Z.190524T1800Z.NO/
810 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* from this evening to Saturday afternoon.
* At  7:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  crest near 16.0 feet by early Thursday morning. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 16.5 feet...Crop damage begins near Monticello.
* Impact:  At 16.0 feet...Lewis County Road 532 (or 230th Street) will
  be flooded at this height.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Left bank begins to flood near Monticello.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0    8.80      13.9   15.8   12.0    8.1    6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-221310-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0143.190522T0400Z-190525T2020Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190522T0400Z.190523T1800Z.190524T2020Z.NO/
810 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* from this evening to Saturday afternoon.
* At  7:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and 
  crest near 16.9 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 16.6 feet...Left bank overflows downstream of bridge 
  near the gage.
* Impact:  At 15.7 feet...Right bank overflows upstream of bridge near
  the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0    9.69      15.1   16.7   15.0    8.5    6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-221310-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0144.190522T0632Z-190525T1513Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.190522T0632Z.190523T0600Z.190524T1513Z.NO/
810 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* from late tonight to Saturday morning.
* At  7:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tonight and crest near 14.3 feet by early Thursday morning. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 9.5 feet...Flood Stage.  Minor flooding begins.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5    7.97      12.5   13.8   10.2    4.9    3.4


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC127-221310-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0145.190522T0846Z-190524T0205Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.190522T0846Z.190522T1800Z.190523T0205Z.NO/
810 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the North River at Palmyra
* from late tonight to Thursday evening.
* At  7:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  and crest near 15.5 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact:  At 16.0 feet...Left bank begins to flood near the gage.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Marion County Rd 341 north of Palmyra 
  inundated. Significant agricultural land flooding...right bank.
* Impact:  At 13.5 feet...County Road 333, east of Palmyra, begins to 
  flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

North River
  Palmyra         13.0    7.07      14.4   10.1    6.3    5.0    4.7


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

MOC137-221310-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0146.190521T1608Z-190524T1840Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190521T1608Z.190522T1800Z.190523T1640Z.NO/
810 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this 
  morning and crest near 19.9 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage by late Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 14.7 feet...Water begins leaving the banks at the State 
  Highway A bridge north of Holliday.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   15.32      19.7   17.7   10.3    7.7    5.8


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

7 follow-up statements

735 
WGUS83 KLSX 211926
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  North River at Palmyra

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-221925-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.190521T1924Z-190525T1048Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T0600Z.190524T1048Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* from this afternoon to late Friday night.
* At  1:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.3 feet by early Thursday 
  morning, then fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Left bank begins to flood near Monticello.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   11.57      13.2   15.0   10.8    7.5    6.0


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC127-221925-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.190522T0130Z-190525T1224Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.190522T0130Z.190523T0000Z.190524T1224Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* from this evening to Saturday morning.
* At  1:31 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  to crest near 14.0 feet by tomorrow evening. The river is forecast 
  to fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 13.7 feet...County Road 319 just north of the gage 
  begins to flood.
* Impact:  At 13.6 feet...Missouri State Route M west of Route D 
  begins flooding near this height.  This road closed during South 
  Fabius River flood of September 11, 2014.
* Impact:  At 13.0 feet...Marion County Road 301 will be flooded north
  of County Road 150 near this height.
* Impact:  At 12.5 feet...Marion County Road 150 will be flooded near 
  this height.
* Impact:  At 11.0 feet...Both banks begin to overflow low level 
  farmlands.
* Impact:  At 10.5 feet...County Road 117 northwest of Philadelphia 
  floods.
* Impact:  At 10.2 feet...The river begins flooding the right bank 
  just downstream of the County Road 319 bridge at the gage.
* Impact:  At 10.1 feet...Marion County Road 310 begins flooding just 
  west of the east end of the road, the intersection with County Road
  365.
* Impact:  At 9.5 feet...Flood Stage.  Minor flooding begins.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5    8.60      12.6   13.5    9.6    4.7    3.5


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC111-221925-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0143.190521T2304Z-190525T1500Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190521T2304Z.190523T1800Z.190524T1500Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* from this evening to Saturday morning.
* At  1:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  to crest near 15.8 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 15.7 feet...Right bank overflows upstream of bridge near
  the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   11.51      14.3   15.7   12.9    7.7    5.9


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-221925-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0145.190522T0600Z-190523T1821Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.190522T0600Z.190522T1200Z.190522T1821Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North River at Palmyra
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon.
* At  2:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tonight and to crest near 14.8 feet by tomorrow morning. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Marion County Rd 341 north of Palmyra 
  inundated. Significant agricultural land flooding...right bank.
* Impact:  At 13.5 feet...County Road 333, east of Palmyra, begins to 
  flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

North River
  Palmyra         13.0    9.66      14.8    9.0    5.9    4.9    4.6


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

MOC137-221925-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-190524T1320Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190522T0145Z.190522T1800Z.190523T1120Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Friday morning.
* At  2:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  to crest near 19.5 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.0 feet...Wastewater lift station begins flooding at 
  about this height.  Water was 16 ft deep in July 2008.
* Impact:  At 18.1 feet...Water exits the left bank downstream of the 
  State Highway A bridge.  Adjacent fields begin to flood.
* Impact:  At 17.5 feet...Water exits the right bank downstream of the
  State Highway A bridge.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   16.25      19.2   16.9    9.9    7.5    6.3


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

513 
WGUS83 KLSX 220234
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
934 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-230233-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190525T1200Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T0000Z.190524T1200Z.NO/
934 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Saturday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 16.0 feet tomorrow evening, 
  then fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 16.5 feet...Crop damage begins near Monticello.
* Impact:  At 16.0 feet...Lewis County Road 532 (or 230th Street) will
  be flooded at this height.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Left bank begins to flood near Monticello.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.31      15.2   15.3   11.0    7.7    6.2


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-230233-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-190525T1024Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190521T2215Z.190522T1800Z.190524T1024Z.NO/
934 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Friday night.
* At  8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.8 feet tomorrow 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 15.7 feet...Right bank overflows upstream of bridge near
  the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   13.76      15.5   14.5   11.6    7.2    5.8


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-230233-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.000000T0000Z-190525T0325Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190522T0700Z.190523T0000Z.190524T0325Z.NO/
934 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Friday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage after midnight 
  tonight and crest near 11.5 feet tomorrow evening. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage Thursday night.
* Impact:  At 11.0 feet...Both banks begin to overflow low level 
  farmlands.
* Impact:  At 10.5 feet...County Road 117 northwest of Philadelphia 
  floods.
* Impact:  At 10.2 feet...The river begins flooding the right bank 
  just downstream of the County Road 319 bridge at the gage.
* Impact:  At 10.1 feet...Marion County Road 310 begins flooding just 
  west of the east end of the road, the intersection with County Road
  365.
* Impact:  At 9.5 feet...Flood Stage.  Minor flooding begins.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5    9.02      10.5   11.0    7.8    4.5    3.4


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

965 
WGUS83 KLSX 221449
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-231449-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190525T1930Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T0000Z.190524T1930Z.NO/
949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 14.8 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage Friday early afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.55      14.7   12.1    8.9    7.0    6.0


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-231449-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-190525T1600Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190521T2215Z.190523T1800Z.190524T1600Z.NO/
949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Saturday morning.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.2 feet by this afternoon, 
  then fall below flood stage late Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   15.05      15.5   13.2    8.2    6.5    5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-231449-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.000000T0000Z-190525T1851Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.190523T1800Z.190524T1851Z.NO/
949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 12.0 feet by early tomorrow
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage early Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 11.0 feet...Both banks begin to overflow low level 
  farmlands.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   10.78      11.7   10.7    6.1    4.1    3.5


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-231449-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-190524T0200Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190522T0058Z.190522T0800Z.190523T0000Z.NO/
949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Thursday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  this evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   17.73      16.5   14.6    9.8    7.7    6.6


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

212 
WGUS83 KLSX 230207
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

  Cuivre River at Old Monroe

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-240206-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.3.ER.190319T1215Z.190507T0130Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 28.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 29.9 feet by Friday evening.
* Impact:  At 30.0 feet...Major flooding begins.  Residential flooding
  in Old Monroe.
* Impact:  At 29.1 feet...Streets in Old Monroe begin flooding.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   28.45      29.2   29.8   29.9   29.6   28.7


&&


LAT...LON 3892 9081 3894 9070 3892 9070 3890 9080




$$

MOC111-240206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190525T2100Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T0600Z.190524T2100Z.NO/
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.4 feet by after midnight 
  tonight, then fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   15.28      15.2   12.3    9.1    7.1    6.1


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-240206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-190525T1606Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190521T2215Z.190523T1800Z.190524T1606Z.NO/
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Saturday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 16.0 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 15.7 feet...Right bank overflows upstream of bridge near
  the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   14.85      15.5   13.3    8.1    6.4    5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-240206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.000000T0000Z-190525T1700Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.190523T1800Z.190524T1700Z.NO/
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 11.3 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Friday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 11.0 feet...Both banks begin to overflow low level 
  farmlands.
* Impact:  At 10.5 feet...County Road 117 northwest of Philadelphia 
  floods.
* Impact:  At 10.2 feet...The river begins flooding the right bank 
  just downstream of the County Road 319 bridge at the gage.



&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   10.13      11.2   10.0    6.5    4.3    3.4


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-240206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-190524T2000Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190522T0058Z.190522T0800Z.190523T1800Z.NO/
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river is expected to rise to near flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 17.5 feet...Water exits the right bank downstream of the
  State Highway A bridge.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   16.78      17.0   14.4    9.7    7.5    6.4


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

655 
WGUS83 KLSX 231714
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1214 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
 
              ...North Fabius River near Ewing
              ...Middle Fabius River near Ewing
              ...South Fabius River near Taylor
              

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-241713-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190526T0524Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T1030Z.190525T0524Z.NO/
1214 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Saturday night.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 15.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage early 
  Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   15.66      13.9   10.0    7.2    6.0    5.5

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154


$$

MOC111-241713-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-190526T0536Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190521T2215Z.190524T0000Z.190525T0536Z.NO/
1214 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Saturday night.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 16.9 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 16.6 feet...Left bank overflows downstream of bridge 
  near the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   16.43      16.4   10.8    8.1    6.3    5.1

&&

LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162


$$

MOC127-241713-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.000000T0000Z-190526T0100Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.190524T0000Z.190525T0100Z.NO/
1214 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Saturday evening.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 11.5 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   11.15      11.3    7.2    4.5    3.5    3.1

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       


$$

302 
WGUS83 KLSX 240122
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
822 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-240152-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0157.000000T0000Z-190524T2100Z/
/TRYM7.1.ER.190523T1636Z.190523T2000Z.190523T2351Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cuivre River near Troy.
* At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  6:51 PM Thursday.
* The river will continue falling to 9.4 feet by Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   20.35      15.6    9.4    8.0    7.5    7.2

&&

LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090

$$

MOC111-250122-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190525T0720Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T1030Z.190524T0720Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Friday night.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   12.14      10.3    8.5    8.0    7.5    6.4

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154

$$

MOC111-250122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-190526T0536Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190521T2215Z.190523T2245Z.190525T0536Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Saturday night.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 16.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   16.66      16.0   10.8    8.9    7.5    5.7

&&

LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162

$$

MOC127-250122-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.000000T0000Z-190525T1400Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.190523T1830Z.190524T1400Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Friday late morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   10.71       9.7    6.6    4.5    3.6    3.2

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       

$$

MOC137-250122-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-190525T2200Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190522T0058Z.190522T0800Z.190524T2000Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Friday afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   17.93      17.7   13.5    9.4    7.4    6.5

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       

$$

944 
WGUS83 KLSX 241319
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
819 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-241349-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190525T0720Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190521T1731Z.190523T1030Z.190524T0315Z.NO/
819 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing.
* At  7:30 AM Friday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 10:15 PM Thursday.
* The river will continue falling to 8.5 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28  05/29

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0    9.01       8.5    8.0    7.5    6.4    5.5


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 21, 7:42 AM CDT, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 7:42 AM CDT, 28 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
742 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A deep upper level trough is making its way through the southwestern
Great Plains this morning resulting in strong lee-side cyclogenesis.
The low level circulation is forecast to move from Oklahoma
northward into Kansas and Nebraska by this afternoon as the
positively tilted trof aloft swings north through the central and
northern Plains. Short range models bring the warm front which is
connected to the surface low up into northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois by 23-00Z this evening. The GFS and RAP are
fairly consistent with the position of the warm front today, and
are very close on the amount of instability that builds up ahead
of the dry line--widespread 1500-2000 J/Kg SBCAPE, and 2500+ near
the triple point between the dry line and the warm front and out
just south of the warm front due to dew point pooling. Models show
60-80kts of 0- 6km and ~50kts of 0-3km bulk shear ahead of the
dry line. Both shear vectors are nearly normal to the front which
strongly favors a linear mode of convection. Indeed...all of the
convection allowing models push a squall line through the area
starting in central and northeast Missouri between 21-22Z,
reaching east central Missouri and southwest Illinois between
00-02Z, and then exiting the area into southeast Illinois between
05-07Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornadoes continue to be the
primary severe weather threat. As if the severe weather threat
wasn't enough, have hoisted a flash flood watch until midnight
tonight. 12 hour radar estimated precipitation shows amounts
between 1-2 inches across parts of central and northeast Missouri.
QPF forecast calls for an additional 1-2 inches across much of
the area as well. With The watch may be overkill across parts of
southeast and south central Illinois where there hasn't been as
much rain, but with P-wats between 1.5-2 inches the storms this
afternoon and tonight should be very efficient rain- producers.

Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A southwest flow pattern remains in place for Wednesday behind the
dry line.  Consequently, temperatures will likely be several degrees
warmer on Wednesday with highs likely pushing the mid and upper 80s.
It does look dry though, with dew point temperatures in the 50s and
60s for most of the day, so afternoon convection looks unlikely.
However, the persistent low level southwest flow will inevitably
moisten up the atmosphere enough to promote convection.  The low
level jet increases to 40-50kts Wednesday night, and the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF collective all show moderate to strong low level
moisture convergence over Missouri and into Illinois overnight with
corresponding QPF output.  The NAM and ECMWF keep the majority of
the QPF along and north of I-70 while the GFS is further south. This
is likely due to a buckle in the strengthening upper level ridge
shown in the GFS...which I'm not so sure isn't grid-scale convective
feedback.  For the moment I prefer the more northern solutions,
closer to the greatest 850mb baroclinicity.

Models continue to sharpen the upper level ridge over the
Mississippi Valley on Thursday.  The GFS forecasts some very high
dew point temperatures on Thursday (>80F)...which look anomalously
high when compared to the ECMWF and NAM.  Therefore, I think the
convection advertised by the GFS over central and eastern Missouri
is likely overblown.  The EC and NAM look much more reasonable with
precip nearer the Missouri/Iowa border for Thursday...and for
Thursday night and friday for that matter.

The upper ridge axis moves east away from our region on Saturday
allowing a more zonal flow pattern to develop aloft with the upper
high over the Gulf Coast and a persistent low over Canada.  The
resulting low level boundary between cool air over the Upper Midwest
and warm moist air over the mid and lower Mississippi Valley is
forecast to stall over northern Missouri or southern Iowa.  The
front is forecast to wave north and south Saturday through Monday by
the GFS and ECMWF most likely driven by convection rather than
dynamic forcing.  Can't rule out precip along and north of I-70
nearly every period from Saturday through Monday in the vicinity of
the boundary.  Temperatures through the period look to be well above
normal...mainly in the 80s.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

MVFR and some IFR cigs are spread across the area. How far east
and eventually north these low cigs spread is less certain.
However, believe these low cigs will continue north as the warm
front pushes north through the morning and impact KUIN. A few
showers or thunderstorms may arrive at KCOU around Noon today.
These storms are not expected to be severe. Expect a line of
thunderstorms to move east across the region, likely producing
severe or near severe wind gusts as it does. The exception is KUIN
that should remain north of the warm front and therefore may not
receive as high wind gusts. This may change as the event unfolds.
Behind the storms, expect winds to become more southerly, keeping
VFR conditions.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: MVFR cigs remain just SW of
terminals this morning. Model guidance suggests these MVFR cigs
will move north into the area shortly and persist through this
morning. A line of thunderstorms producing, severe or near severe
wind gusts, is expected to move east through the area this
evening. Winds may be a little more light tonight behind the line
of thunderstorms. If so, will need to monitor for fog/stratus
potential, but confidence is too low for now.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     76  61  86  69 /  30  90   5  30
Quincy          63  56  81  62 /  50 100   5  50
Columbia        73  55  83  65 / 100  80   5  50
Jefferson City  74  56  85  66 / 100  70   5  40
Salem           78  61  84  68 /  30  90   5  20
Farmington      80  59  84  68 /  60  80   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 4:10 AM CDT, 4 hours before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
410 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-220915-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
410 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. Damaging
wind is the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible.

A flash flood watch is in effect until midnight tonight. Locally
heavy rain from last night combined with expected heavy rain from
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may produce dangerous flash
flooding.

Major river flooding is ongoing along portions of the Illinois
River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Major river flooding will continue along portions of the Illinois
River, and is forecast to reach near major at Saverton on the
Mississippi River.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue through Monday across
parts of our area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Carney

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 21, 2:14 AM CDT, 5 hours 56 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
214 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILZ079-100>102-MOZ061-063-064-074-075-210815-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-St. Louis MO-
St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-
214 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE...MADISON...RANDOLPH AND
ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...NORTHEASTERN ST.
CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND ST. LOUIS
CITY UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 214 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bridgeton to near Fountain to 6 miles
southwest of Weingarten. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Florissant, Berkeley, Bel-Ridge, Kinloch, Calverton Park and
  Bellerive around 220 AM CDT.
  Ferguson, Jennings, Waterloo, Dellwood, Normandy, Cool Valley,
  Moline Acres, Country Club Hills, Norwood Court and Pasadena Hills
  around 225 AM CDT.
  Bellefontaine Neighbors, Black Jack, Millstadt, Riverview, Spanish
  Lake and Glasgow Village around 230 AM CDT.
  St. Louis, Granite City, Alton, Godfrey, Ste. Genevieve, Madison,
  East Alton and Smithton around 235 AM CDT.
  Wood River, Pontoon Beach, Freeburg, South Roxana, Roxana,
  Hartford, St. Mary and Rosewood Heights around 240 AM CDT.
  Bethalto and New Athens around 245 AM CDT.
  Edwardsville, Chester, Mascoutah and Dorsey around 250 AM CDT.
  Glen Carbon, Bremen, Carpenter and Prairietown around 255 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Sauget, Roots,
Prairie, Eden, New Palestine, Fults, New Hanover, Minnith, Burksville
and Ruma.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 21 and 30.
 Interstate 55 in Illinois between exits 23 and 37.
 Interstate 64 in Illinois between exits 9 and 27.
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 276 and 277.
 Interstate 55 in Missouri between exits 141 and 162.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 228 and 231.

This also includes Scott Joplin Historic Site, Hawn State Park, Felix
Valle House State Park, Confluence State Park, First Missouri State
Capitol Historic Site, and Horseshoe Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 8960 3781 8968 3791 8984 3778 9003
      3775 9041 3806 9038 3812 9025 3824 9036
      3845 9034 3846 9041 3885 9054 3894 9034
      3892 9028 3896 9027 3900 9019 3900 8964
      3866 8959 3865 8971 3824 8971 3822 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 258DEG 39KT 3880 9044 3833 9028 3784 9032

Tilly

Local storm report, May 21, 2:34 AM CDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
234 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E MARYLAND HEIGHTS    38.72N 90.44W
05/21/2019  E35 MPH          ST. LOUIS          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KTVI.

&&

TILLY

Local storm report, May 21, 3:00 AM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE SAINT PETERS       38.79N 90.59W
05/21/2019  E35 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   PUBLIC

&&

TILLY

Local storm report, May 21, 3:01 AM CDT, 5 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     TSTM WND GST     UNION                   38.45N 91.01W
05/21/2019  E40 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   PUBLIC

&&

TILLY

Local storm report, May 21, 7:28 AM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
728 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N COLUMBIA            39.03N 92.33W
05/21/2019  M1.60 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PW

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 11:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Cole, Osage	42 min
May 21, 12:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Washington	65 min
May 21, 1:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Francois, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	43 min
May 21, 2:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Sainte Genevieve, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	61 min
May 21, 3:40 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LSX	Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin and 23 more	20 hr
May 21, 8:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	4 days
May 21, 8:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	4 days
May 21, 8:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	61 hr
May 21, 8:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Monroe	4 days
May 21, 10:01 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Cole	61 hr
May 21, 11:18 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Saint Louis	42 days
May 21, 11:18 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Saint Louis	41 days
May 21, 12:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Crawford, Washington	4 days
May 21, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Boone, Callaway, Cole, Osage	46 min
May 21, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Gasconade, Montgomery, Osage	50 min
May 21, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade	63 min
May 21, 4:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Callaway, Gasconade, Montgomery, Osage	27 min
May 21, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Iron, Reynolds, Washington	54 min
May 21, 5:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	LSX	Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Montgomery, Pike, Warren	48 min
May 21, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Saint Charles, Warren, Washington	38 min
May 21, 5:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Washington	26 min
May 21, 5:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Franklin, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren	50 min
May 21, 5:54 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Cole	41 hr
May 21, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Saint Charles, Warren	33 min
May 21, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson, Madison, Reynolds and 3 more	76 min
May 21, 6:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	41 min
May 21, 6:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Jefferson, Madison, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois, Saint Louis and 2 more	88 min
May 21, 6:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	42 min
May 21, 6:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	50 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2019 Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.