Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS St. Louis, MO

219 
WWUS53 KLSX 210916
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
416 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

MOC123-186-187-210925-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-191021T0930Z/
Ste. Genevieve MO-Madison MO-St. Francois MO-
416 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STE. GENEVIEVE...MADISON AND
ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois...and southeastern and east central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3795 8960 3781 8968 3791 8984 3788 8994
      3793 8998 3796 8992 3797 9000 3813 9025
      3801 9056 3820 9078 3848 9072 3845 9067
      3850 9041 3846 9042 3839 9034 3852 9026
      3831 9004 3830 8991 3822 8990 3822 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 270DEG 65KT 3843 9043 3821 9007 3780 8982 

$$

ILC133-157-MOC099-210930-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-191021T0930Z/
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Jefferson MO-
416 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR MONROE...RANDOLPH AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 415 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Arnold to near Red Bud to 6 miles northeast of
Perryville, moving east at 75 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Arnold, Festus, Waterloo, Columbia, Chester, De Soto, Pevely, Crystal
City, Sparta, Red Bud, Herculaneum, Hillsboro, Byrnes Mill, High
Ridge, Antonia, Barnhart, Cedar Hill, Oakville, Murphy and Mehlville.

This also includes Mastodon Historic Site, Sandy Creek Covered Bridge
Historic Site, and Gov. Dunklin's Grave Historic Site.
 
This includes Interstate 55 in Missouri between exits 170 and 190.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois...and southeastern and east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 8960 3781 8968 3791 8984 3788 8994
      3793 8998 3796 8992 3797 9000 3813 9025
      3801 9056 3820 9078 3848 9072 3845 9067
      3850 9041 3846 9042 3839 9034 3852 9026
      3831 9004 3830 8991 3822 8990 3822 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 270DEG 65KT 3843 9043 3821 9007 3780 8982 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BSH

236 
WWUS53 KLSX 210927
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
427 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

ILC133-157-MOC099-210936-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-191021T0930Z/
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Jefferson MO-
427 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONROE...RANDOLPH AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits, or have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois...and southeastern and east central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3795 8960 3781 8968 3791 8984 3788 8994
      3793 8998 3796 8992 3797 9000 3813 9025
      3801 9056 3820 9078 3848 9072 3845 9067
      3850 9041 3846 9042 3839 9034 3852 9026
      3831 9004 3830 8991 3822 8990 3822 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 270DEG 65KT 3855 9026 3833 8990 3792 8965 

$$

BSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
300 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Early this morning, a solid N-S oriented band of showers and
thunderstorms was making its way steadily east across Missouri, now
over the central third of the state.  Severe thunderstorms, some
tornadic, are ongoing across south-central MO.  Immediately behind
this area of rain was a front--one that was occluded in northwest MO
and a more traditional cold front in southwest MO.  Extending E-SE
from the front in western MO, through southeast MO and western TN,
was a warm front.  Some convection has recently begun to develop
near this warm front.  Skies were cloudy across our region with
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in northeast MO to the mid
60s in southeast MO.  60F dewpoints have surged north into much of
south-central MO and should have no issues moving into southeast MO
and southern IL in the wake of warm FROPA.  This warm sector looks
to be the primary area of concern for where severe storms will
propagate and threaten.

The cold/occluded front is expected to push east through our region
this morning, exiting the far eastern portions of the forecast area
in southern IL by early afternoon.  The main severe weather threat
area should be in much of southeast MO, possibly edging the southern
STL metro area and extending east into southern IL.  Low level shear
and instability favor continued QLCS propagation with damaging winds
and brief tornadoes as the threats, with this likely to exit the
forecast area by 12z.

In the wake of this front, it really will not be much cooler with a
mild Pacific airmass building in instead.  Thanks to what should be
deep mixing from strong and gusty SW winds and associated mechanical
mixing from the wound up storm system to our north, temperatures
should rebound into the lower 70s for the STL metro area, southern
IL and southeast MO, and into the 60s for areas further N and W.

The strong and gusty winds should top out between 30mph and 40mph
this afternoon as the sun emerges and mixing deepens.  The highest
gusts should be for areas N and W of the STL metro area and may need
to be watched for the need for a Wind Advisory but models prefer to
cap off the low level jet strength at H925 below 40kts.

Some wind diminishment is expected tonight but not too much--with
gusts through the night between 20mph and 30mph, and winds should
ramp up again on Tuesday thanks to deep mixing being maintained with
westerly winds, but the magnitude should be somewhat less than
today, with gusts between 30mph and 35mph.

Preferred the high side of max temps on Tuesday thanks to the deep
mixing, with readings expected to peak in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

An upper longwave TROF is expected to prevail over the central and
eastern CONUS until Thursday with the models in reasonable agreement
on ending this pattern by Friday--either dislodging the upper TROF
and replacing it with a new TROF digging into the western CONUS or
by creating a split flow.

Wednesday is still expected to be dry ahead of the next cold front
approaching from the northwest.  Southwest flow will promote a warm
day as well, with temperatures returning into the upper 60s and
lower 70s for much of the area.

More active weather returns Wednesday night and Thursday with
passage of the next surface cold front.

There continues to be a large model spread on how to handle the
changing of the overall upper pattern.  The operational EC and CMC
camp continues to prefer an earlier change of pattern, causing the
next storm system for late week to become severed from the main flow
while it is still west of our region and then drift back into our
region in time for next weekend, resulting in rainy weather.  The
GFS delays the pattern change and therefore keeps the next storm
system entrained within the main flow, progressively sliding through
by late Thursday with the cold front and favoring a dry weekend.
Given this disparity is not going away, will continue to favor CLIMO
PoPs for this weekend, which are low mentionable values.

Beginning Thursday, behind the cold front, a chillier airmass will
begin to take hold and continue into Friday.  Confidence is enough
for the cold temperatures that it may result in a hard freeze in
favored valley areas.  Some temp moderation then looks on tap for
next weekend.  Temperatures could be warmer than this forecast if
the weekend is dry, or cooler if we end up getting rain for much of
it.  With an increase in confidence in PoPs, temperatures will also
be adjusted.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Thunderstorms now entering western Missouri will move eastward
across the area, affecting KCOU between 07-10Z and KUIN and the
St. Louis are terminals between 09-13Z. These storms will likely
reduce visibilities and ceilings to IFR as the move through. In
addition, there may be wind gusts at or above 35 knots at KCOU and
the St. Louis area terminals, most likely from the west to
southwest as the storms move through. Thereafter, ceilings will
improve to VFR early on Monday morning at the same time that winds
veer to the southwest and gusts into the 20 to 30 knot range.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Dry and VFR conditions are expected until around 09Z. Then a line
of thunderstorms is expected to move through the terminal between
09-12Z. This line will likely reduce visibilities and ceilings to
IFR as the move through. In addition, there may be wind gusts at
or above 35 knots, most likely from the west to southwest.
Thereafter, ceilings will improve to VFR early on Monday morning
at the same time that winds veer to the southwest with gusts above
20 knots.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-212030-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across the entire area after midnight
tonight. Severe storms are possible from east central Missouri
through portions of southeast Missouri. Damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes are the severe threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will continue into early Monday morning for portions
of southwest and south-central Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after midnight tonight, especially
across southeast Missouri.

Maples

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     HAIL             FESTUS                  38.22N 90.41W
10/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MAB