Flood Watch 3, NWS St. Louis, MO

715 
WGUS63 KLSX 290956 CCA
FFALSX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
456 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

MOZ041-047>050-059-072-292030-
/O.COR.KLSX.FA.A.0003.190329T1800Z-190330T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Boone MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Gasconade MO-
Crawford MO-
Including the cities of Columbia, Jefferson City, and Fulton
456 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Saint Louis has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of central Missouri and east central 
  Missouri...including the following counties...in central 
  Missouri...Boone MO...Callaway MO...Cole MO...Moniteau MO and 
  Osage MO. In east central Missouri...Crawford MO and Gasconade 
  MO. 

* from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across
  parts of central and east central Missouri today and tonight.
  Around two inches of rainfall is expected over the watch area.

* The heavy rainfall could result in flooding of low lying or poor
  drainage areas...and flooding on smaller creeks and streams.
  Additional rises and flooding on larger streams and rivers will
  also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are favorable
that may lead to flooding. People in the Watch area, especially
in flood prone areas, should use this time to check on
preparedness requirements. Stay informed, and be ready for action
if flooding is observed or if a Flood Warning is issued.

&&

$$

Britt

190 
WGUS63 KLSX 292104
FFALSX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
404 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019


MOZ041-047>050-059-072-300900-
/O.CON.KLSX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190330T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Boone MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Gasconade MO-
Crawford MO-
Including the cities of Columbia, Jefferson City, and Fulton
404 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* portions of central Missouri and east central Missouri... 
  including the following counties...in central Missouri...Boone 
  MO...Callaway MO...Cole MO...Moniteau MO and Osage MO. In east 
  central Missouri...Crawford MO and Gasconade MO. 

* through Saturday morning

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across
  parts of central and east central Missouri tonight. Around two 
  inches of rainfall is expected over the watch area. 

* The heavy rainfall could result in flooding of low lying or 
  poor drainage areas...and flooding on smaller creeks and 
  streams. Additional rises and flooding on larger streams and 
  rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are favorable
that may lead to flooding. People in the Watch area, especially
in flood prone areas, should use this time to check on
preparedness requirements. Stay informed, and be ready for action
if flooding is observed or if a Flood Warning is issued.

&&

$$

GKS

303 
WGUS63 KLSX 300835
FFALSX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
335 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

MOZ041-047>050-059-072-300945-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190330T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Boone MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Gasconade MO-
Crawford MO-
Including the cities of Columbia, Jefferson City, and Fulton
335 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of central Missouri and east central
Missouri has been cancelled. Rain is moving out of the the flood
watch early this morning, ending the flood threat.

$$

Britt

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Weakening MCS over northwestern MO will shift eastward through
northern and central MO and west central IL this evening with more
scattered activity further south.  It appears that most of the
showers/storms late tonight will be across central and southeast MO
and southwest IL and will be more scattered in nature on the nose of
a veering southwesterly low level jet. A cold front across northern
MO will sag slowly southward into central MO on Friday with most of
the showers along and south of this front where better low level
moisture and instability will exist.  Despite low level cloud cover
and precipitation highs on Friday south of the front will be at or
slightly above normal for the end of March. Cooler highs can be
expected across northeast MO and west central IL.  More widespread
showers along with a few storms can be expected Friday night as a
surface low develops along the nearly stationary front as a
positively tilted upper level trough approaches from the northern
Plains.  Colder temperatures are forecast for Friday night due to
low level cold air advection behind the cold front that will
progress southeastward into southeast MO and southwest IL by 12Z
Saturday.  These rounds of rain, possibly heavy at times may
exacerbate some of the river flooding across parts of our area and
possibly create new flooding issues on some of the smaller creaks
and streams.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Focus remains the precip chances this weekend.

Models are in good agreement through the period. There are some
differences that appear, but are generally minimal and in some
cases, have little if any impact on the region. A cold front will
pass through much of the CWA early Sat morning and should be on the
southeast CWA border at 12z Sat. Expect some minor temp recovery
during the day, but for the most part, the morning temperature will
be the high for the day. Models are lagging the upper trof a bit
which should help precip linger into the afternoon hours across
southeast portions of the CWA. While CAA will continue in low
levels, do not currently anticipate enough cold air to turn the rain
over to snow.

Behind this front, a fairly large surface ridge will build into the
region. This ridge will help keep temps some 10 degrees below
seasonal average through Mon. This results in overnight lows below
freezing. Again.

These cooler temps should be short lived with temperatures
rebounding into the low 60s by Tues. There is some uncertainty that
temps will warm this quickly, but think the going forecast is within
reason for now given the strong insolation potential. The next
approaching system brings another chance for rain mid to late next
week.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Large area of showers and a few thunderstorms have moved out of
the forecast area as of 0430z Friday, though patchy fog and scattered
showers remain, so kept vicinity shower mention at all TAF sites
through daybreak. Will see another round of activity develop over
western Missouri and track east along and north of frontal
boundary Friday morning. The showers and storms will move into
central Missouri after 11z Friday, then spread eastward,
increasing in coverage through the late morning/early afternoon
hours and persist through Friday evening. Otherwise, the main
forecast issue will be the ceilings and visibilities which will
gradually lower north of the front that is still progged to slide
south and stall out along the I-70 corridor by 12z Friday. Winds
will remain light and variable then eventually become southerly
for St. Louis metro area as front begins to move back to the north
Friday afternoon. As for KCOU and KUIN, winds will remain light
and from the east to northeast through the forecast period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Large area of showers and a few thunderstorms have moved out of
the forecast area as of 0430z Friday, though patchy fog and
scattered showers are possible, so kept vicinity shower mention in
metro area through daybreak. Will see another round of activity
develop over western Missouri and track east along and north of
frontal boundary Friday morning. The showers and storms will move
into the metro area after 17z Friday and persist through Friday
night. Otherwise, the cold front is still progged to slide south
and stall out along the I-70 corridor by 12z Friday, with ceilings
lowering to IFR by 20z Friday. Winds will remain light and
variable then eventually become southerly as front begins to
move back to the north Friday afternoon.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
400 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-292100-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
400 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across much of the area.

Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing at points on the
Mississippi, Illinois, and Missouri Rivers. See the appropriate
Flood Statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Major river flooding is expected to continue at Saverton Lock and
Dam on the Mississippi River. Otherwise, moderate flooding will
continue at points on the Mississippi, Illinois, and Missouri
Rivers. See the appropriate Flood Statements for specific details.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday through Saturday morning
across parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

GKS