Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Southern Indiana and most of central Kentucky were under a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch as of 315pm as a line of strong to severe storms
was moving east into the area.  Mesoanalysis shows an axis of 1000
j/kg DCAPE and 3000-4000 j/kg of SBCAPE over the area supportive of
a damaging wind threat.  While overall 0-6 km bulk shear (20-25 kts)
is lacking attm, that number will increase to 30-40 kt this evening
as an upper level trough pushes northeast through the region.
Overall think that damaging winds will be the main threat with
storms this evening now through around 10-11pm.  However, as better
wind support arrives this evening with robust CAPE values, hail
might reach severe levels. In addition, SRH will increase this
evening as well possibly bringing an isld tornado threat especially
to west central KY.  The severe threat east of I-65 is still in
question as loss of diurnal instability later this evening combined
with weak upper level ridging may limit storm strength. Isolated
flooding issues may present themselves in any areas that see
repeated storms tonight.

After evening storms end, the overnight period should be relatively
quiet with a relative lull in convection.  Closer to sunrise though,
another convective complex is expected to develop on the nose of a
strong LLJ with an upper level shortwave accompanying.  The complex
should develop over northern TN/southern KY and move northeast
through the day on Mon.  While storms may initially be elevated, a
severe threat may materialize for east central KY Mon afternoon
especially ahead of a weak cool front and upper trough.  Again the
main threat will be damaging winds but some hail and isolated
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Monday evening an area of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
will push through the region associated with the last shortwave in
the large upper level trough.  This should end precipitation Monday
night.

Temperatures will remain muggy in the low 70s for lows tonight and
lower/mid 80s for highs Mon.  Mon night lows should dip into the 60s.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Updated at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Quasi-zonal flow will move in behind the departing trough on
Tuesday, with a ridge beginning to form over the Central US that
will continue to intensify through the end of the week. This pattern
suggests a drier and less active period of weather for the area,
with temperatures around or slightly above normal (upper 80s into
lowers 90s) and dewpoints in the mid 60s. The GFS hints at some
disturbances moving through the flow mid-week, so have added some
chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon in south-central KY and Wednesday
evening along and north of the Ohio River. In addition, with the
warm and moist airmass in place all week, cannot rule out isolated
to scattered diurnally driven storms.

Toward the end of the week, flow from the Gulf will open up with
more upper level shortwave activity arriving in the Ohio Valley.
This will result in better chances for showers/storms for the
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A complex of storms moving northeast through southwest Indiana will
impact HNB within the next hour causing IFR conditions and wind
gusts up to 45-50kts. If this storm complex maintains itself and
develops a bit more on the southern edge, SDF could be impacted as
early as 20Z.  However, the best time period for a line of
convection moving through all TAF sites will be this evening between
23-6Z.  MVFR-IFR conditions and gusty winds will likely accompany
these evening storms. Overnight expect mainly showers behind the
line of storms with a more notable complex of showers/storms
potentially developing around sunrise through the morning hours.

Outside of storms, expect mainly VFR conditions through tonight.
MVFR cigs may become more dominant at SDF/HNB tomorrow morning after
sunrise.

Winds through the TAF period will be SSW.  Higher gusts can be
expected in convection throughout the TAF period.  Winds may be
breezy tomorrow afternoon outside of storms as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...JMB
Aviation...AMS

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