Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Southern Indiana and most of central Kentucky were under a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch as of 315pm as a line of strong to severe storms
was moving east into the area.  Mesoanalysis shows an axis of 1000
j/kg DCAPE and 3000-4000 j/kg of SBCAPE over the area supportive of
a damaging wind threat.  While overall 0-6 km bulk shear (20-25 kts)
is lacking attm, that number will increase to 30-40 kt this evening
as an upper level trough pushes northeast through the region.
Overall think that damaging winds will be the main threat with
storms this evening now through around 10-11pm.  However, as better
wind support arrives this evening with robust CAPE values, hail
might reach severe levels. In addition, SRH will increase this
evening as well possibly bringing an isld tornado threat especially
to west central KY.  The severe threat east of I-65 is still in
question as loss of diurnal instability later this evening combined
with weak upper level ridging may limit storm strength. Isolated
flooding issues may present themselves in any areas that see
repeated storms tonight.

After evening storms end, the overnight period should be relatively
quiet with a relative lull in convection.  Closer to sunrise though,
another convective complex is expected to develop on the nose of a
strong LLJ with an upper level shortwave accompanying.  The complex
should develop over northern TN/southern KY and move northeast
through the day on Mon.  While storms may initially be elevated, a
severe threat may materialize for east central KY Mon afternoon
especially ahead of a weak cool front and upper trough.  Again the
main threat will be damaging winds but some hail and isolated
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Monday evening an area of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
will push through the region associated with the last shortwave in
the large upper level trough.  This should end precipitation Monday
night.

Temperatures will remain muggy in the low 70s for lows tonight and
lower/mid 80s for highs Mon.  Mon night lows should dip into the 60s.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Updated at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Quasi-zonal flow will move in behind the departing trough on
Tuesday, with a ridge beginning to form over the Central US that
will continue to intensify through the end of the week. This pattern
suggests a drier and less active period of weather for the area,
with temperatures around or slightly above normal (upper 80s into
lowers 90s) and dewpoints in the mid 60s. The GFS hints at some
disturbances moving through the flow mid-week, so have added some
chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon in south-central KY and Wednesday
evening along and north of the Ohio River. In addition, with the
warm and moist airmass in place all week, cannot rule out isolated
to scattered diurnally driven storms.

Toward the end of the week, flow from the Gulf will open up with
more upper level shortwave activity arriving in the Ohio Valley.
This will result in better chances for showers/storms for the
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A complex of storms moving northeast through southwest Indiana will
impact HNB within the next hour causing IFR conditions and wind
gusts up to 45-50kts. If this storm complex maintains itself and
develops a bit more on the southern edge, SDF could be impacted as
early as 20Z.  However, the best time period for a line of
convection moving through all TAF sites will be this evening between
23-6Z.  MVFR-IFR conditions and gusty winds will likely accompany
these evening storms. Overnight expect mainly showers behind the
line of storms with a more notable complex of showers/storms
potentially developing around sunrise through the morning hours.

Outside of storms, expect mainly VFR conditions through tonight.
MVFR cigs may become more dominant at SDF/HNB tomorrow morning after
sunrise.

Winds through the TAF period will be SSW.  Higher gusts can be
expected in convection throughout the TAF period.  Winds may be
breezy tomorrow afternoon outside of storms as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...JMB
Aviation...AMS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KYZ061-062-070>075-232030-
Monroe-Warren-Logan-Simpson-Allen-Edmonson-Barren-Butler-
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...
WEST CENTRAL MONROE...NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...ALLEN...SOUTHEASTERN
BUTLER...WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN BARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN EDMONSON
COUNTIES...

At 239 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 12 miles east of Dunmor to near Three
Springs to Westmoreland. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Scottsville, Plum Springs, Memphis Junction, Mount
Victor, Crestmoor, Anderson, Smiths Grove, Woodburn and Oakland.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3665 8642 3680 8655 3704 8689 3728 8648
      3712 8616 3671 8585 3663 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 224DEG 25KT 3705 8678 3687 8647 3658 8626

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
405 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

INZ077-084-090-091-232030-
Crawford-Washington-Floyd-Harrison-
405 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HARRISON...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 405 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles north of
Corydon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Galena, New Pekin, Palmyra, Greenville, Fredericksburg, Shorts
Corner, Martinsburg, Bradford, Fairdale and Hancock Chapel.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3845 8599 3841 8600 3841 8597 3836 8594
      3830 8621 3839 8630 3854 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 235DEG 22KT 3838 8618

EBW

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