River Flood Warning 35, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
639 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...Strong and Gusty West Winds Today into Tonight...

Main story today is the gusty west winds that will develop behind a
departing cold front, as a deepening 975mb low near the east end of
Lake Superior and a 1044mb high over the Canadian Prairie create a
ridiculously strong pressure gradient. Very strong wind fields aloft
with 500mb winds touching 100kt, as well as a mixy boundary layer,
all support strong gusts. Look for frequent 40 mph gusts over most,
if not all of the area, with occasionaly 50 mph gusts not out of the
question from the I-64 corridor northward. In coordination with JKL,
will expand the advisory southward to the Tennessee border. Gusts
will be marginal across the south, but with the soils even more
saturated there compared to our northern counties, impacts may not
be much different.

Temps will be nearly flat through the day given the cold advection
pattern, and a profile that goes dry adiabatic before sunrise. Still
a substantial bust potential depending on the timing of the front,
which we are counting on for about a 10 degree drop before daybreak.

Tonight is also tricky given that breezy conditions will persist
well after sunset. If the winds slack off just before sunrise on
Monday, we could see a sharp drop at that time. Otherwise guidance
temps are almost certainly too cold.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

Sunday Night - Wednesday

A weakly amplified upper trough will sit over New England and slowly
move off shore. This will provide shallow ridging for most of the
United States. A surface high will dominate keeping skies mostly
clear and temperatures close to average for this time of year.

Thursday - Sunday

Early on Thursday, the westerly upper flow becomes the slightest bit
more southerly as the ridge axis passes the CWA. At the surface
along the Ohio River Valley, a weak low forms as a shortwave passes
through Indiana. This will help the precipitation chances over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. By the second half of the day
when precipitation looks most likely, any precipitation will fall as
rain as temperatures will be in the mid 40s in southern Indiana to
mid 50s in central Kentucky.

Thursday night, rain chances drop to around 20-40 percent in south
central Kentucky. Overhead the mild westerly flow is about to get
much more amplified, and by Friday afternoon, the CWA is sitting in
front of an upper trough centered over New Mexico. The trough is co-
located with a cold front that will race towards the CWA.

Friday evening into night, a quick moving line of showers with
possible thunderstorms will move through the area. Behind this front
winds will become northwest, skies will clear, and temperatures will
drop. By Sunday, high temperatures will be in the low 30s.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 625 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

Cold front has pushed through HNB and is now poised to move through
SDF and BWG around the valid time of these TAFs. Stratus deck will
lower ceilings to MVFR, but now looks to stay above fuel-alternate.
Main operational impact will be from very gusty west winds, with
prevailing gusts near 35 kt but occasional peaks over 40 kt. Don't
expect quite as much wind at BWG but still should hit gusts near or
just above 30 kt.

Stratus will clear out early afternoon but the winds stay up until
sunset. Even then we'll only lose some of the gustiness, with 25 kt
gusts likely well into the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...KDW
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
354 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-250900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
354 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 /254 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong, very gusty west winds will occur today behind a cold front.
Frequent gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected with isolated gusts over
50 mph. This will cause limbs and some trees to fall, and could cause
some power outages.

Area rivers will remain high from recent rainfall. See our webpage
for the most recent updates to river flood advisories and flood
warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report strong wind gusts and any downed trees or
limbs today.

RAS/KDW

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