River Flood Warning 33, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
939 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 930 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue tracking NE across central
KY at this time. The heaviest rain continues to be across south-
central KY where Flash Flood Warnings exist for the next couple/few
hours. High rain rates exist in the strongest cells. Be vigilant if
driving - Turn Around, Don't Drown if flooded roads are encountered.

Steady rain will end after this current shield moves out over the
next hour or two. Nevertheless, areal flooding will continue for a
time after the rain ends. Thus, will keep the current Flood Watch as
is for the time being, with its expiration at 06z. Also, with the
cold front still several hours to our west, there could be isolated
additional showers develop behind this rain shield. There are
several showers now just east of STL, but the latest HRRR keeps
these to our north over the next couple hours. So, any new cells
in our area should be isolated.

...VERY WINDY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...

Want to take this time to again reiterate the real wind hazard for
very late tonight and especially Sunday. Behind the cold frontal
passage toward morning, surface winds first from the SW then from
the W on Sunday will really increase. Our current Wind Advisory
begins at 09z. We expect sustained winds of 20-30 mph with frequent
gusts of 40-50 mph. Could see isolated gusts over 50 mph. Also of
acute interest is that these winds will have numerous hours of
longevity, i.e., all day Sunday. This will create a real and
impactful hazard. With grounds saturated, these winds could uproot
some trees and at least bring limbs down. Some power outages are
likely as well. People driving on north-south-oriented interstates
should use much caution on Sunday due to a stiff cross-wind. Be
aware of the wind on Sunday and exercise caution and good judgment!

&&

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 820 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Area of rain continues to propagate NE across central KY, with
additional numerous shower development on west side of the steady
rain, as high res models have indicated this evening. Latest KLVX
and KOHX radar showing some stronger cores/cells entering or moving
toward our SW counties (around and SW of BWG). Latest meso
environment continues to show very strong low-level shear across the
area, but effective shear values are a little less given slight
elevated nature of the stronger cores. There is a narrow axis of
weak CAPE on the western side of the rain, which will move east
through the evening, albeit diminish. Any chance for an isolated
severe cell would be mainly across our southern counties this
evening.

Continue to be more worried about flash flooding this evening,
particularly over south-central KY given prior rains earlier this
evening and afternoon, and the increasing trend in reflectivity
values over our SW as the low-level jet and lifting increase ahead
of the cold front. Expect brief but intense rainfall rates with
these cores, which could easily lead to local flash flooding.

Use caution if driving! Remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...Flash Flooding and Severe Storm Risk through Late Evening...
...Windy Sunday...

A complex of showers and storms over western KY and central and
western portions of TN will continue to spread northeast over
central KY/southern Indiana late this afternoon.  Soundings indicate
an elevated environment ahead of this complex due to the presence of
a strong LLJ.  Because of this, not expecting any immediate severe
risk through early evening.  However, an isolated t-storm may
produce small hail ahead of the main storm complex.  The main threat
with this afternoon/early evening round of convection will be heavy
rain and flooding.  With excellent upper/lower jet support and
higher precipitable water values entering the region, expect
efficient rain producers and moderate to heavy rainfall rates
especially in t-storms.  While the Flash Flood Watch still looks to
be in good shape highlighting the area at most risk, south central
KY is especially a concern as they received up to an 1" of rain
already this morning.

The next round of showers/storms will come mid to late evening
primarily between 0-6Z tonight.  We'll enter a more sfc based
environment after the first storm complex moves northeast through
portions of the region.  A line or broken line of showers/storms is
expected to develop just ahead of the cold front and push through
mid to late evening. High-res models still show a thin line of
SBCAPE mainly crossing south central KY later this evening. Also,
favorable wind fields will support rotating cellular structures.
southern KY will be the focus for strong to severe storms containing
damaging winds and potentially an isolated tornado.  In addition,
the flash flood threat will continue area wide.  All of the
showers/storms should exit the region by around midnight.

Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the west-southwest and
become very gusty in a tight pressure gradient on the back side of
the low pressure system.  Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will be
likely late tonight through Sunday area-wide.  Wind gusts of 40-45
mph will be most likely over southern Indiana and portions of north
central KY so a Wind Advisory will be issued for that area.

Temperatures will fall into the 40s tonight behind the cold front
and top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s for Sunday highs.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Expansive surface high pressure will center of the northern Plains
and then into the Great Lakes region during the early to mid week
time frame. Meanwhile, dry and zonal flow will dominate the upper
pattern into mid week. The combination of these two features will
keep us dry at least through the first part of Wednesday. High
temperatures should run mostly in the mid and upper 40s for highs
across southern IN and central KY. Southern KY will likely reach the
low 50s each day. Lows are expected to be in the 20s Sunday/Monday
night, and then warm to the low and mid 30s for Tuesday night. These
temperatures are at or just below normal for this time of year.

Wednesday Night - Saturday...

Zonal flow is expected to persist over the area through the late
week and into the weekend time frame. However, there will be several
weak disturbances passing through the upper flow that could bring
some precipitation chances. See no reason to change this statement
from the previous forecast...

Low-confidence forecast for the late week and early weekend time
frame as the models diverge. Zonal pattern makes it difficult to
time the weak ripples crossing the area, so for now will go with a
fairly broad-brush 20-30 POP for the latter half of the week.
Whenever precip does fall, it will be scattered and light. Temp
forecast is near normal, which could result in precip type
questions. However it's worth noting that the colder Euro solution
is also a dry solution, while the GFS has warmer temps to go with
its precip chances. In light of that, the chances for wintry weather
are actually quite low.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 700 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Large shield of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to
move NE across central KY early this evening, producing MVFR vsbys
and at times IFR vsbys in heavy rain. Additional showers and a few
storms are expected behind this main area of rain through late this
evening before coming to an end. Ceilings have varied from VFR to
MVFR so far, and model cross-sections suggest some IFR ceilings
could occur at times for the next several hours before a cold front
pushes across the region later tonight.

Current surface winds are from the SE and will slowly increase and
switch to S this evening. Winds 2-3 kft above the ground will
increase to around 50-55 kts, so have included low-level wind shear
for a few hours this evening at the TAF sites.

Late tonight and on Sunday, surface winds will become very gusty,
first from the SW then from the W on Sunday. Expect sustained winds
of 20-25 kts with gusts of 35-40 kts on the back side of strong low
pressure pushing into the Great Lakes area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Wind Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.

     Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
     KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Mesoscale....TWF
Update.......TWF
Short Term...AMS
Long Term....BJS
Aviation.....TWF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1012 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE REDHOUSE          37.78N 84.24W
02/23/2019                   MADISON            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ALONG HUNTER LN AND UNION CITY ROAD IS
            MOVING SWIFTLY ALONG THESE ROADS...ALSO OVER
            TATES CREEK RD. ALSO ON CATALPA LOOP IN THE
            CITY OF RICHMOND.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE GRADYVILLE        37.13N 85.40W
02/23/2019                   ADAIR              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS AFFECTED BY FLOODING: RUSSELL CREEK AT
            MILLTOWN RD IN MILLTOWN, WHITE OAK CHURCH
            ROAD AT COFFEY HOLE, AND ABRELL ROAD.

&&

SSC

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