Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
417 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...
PW values will remain high today providing conditions that promote
heavy rainfall. As some of these sh/ts move over a location, the
rainfall could be heavy enough to cause some nuisance flooding.
But all activity should be moving at a fast enough pace as to not
remain over the same areas for very long keeping any large scale
flooding from occurring. Environmental conditions are conducive
for waterspout activity although very weak.

Daily sh/ts at slightly above normal coverage will ease back to a
more normal scattering over the next few days. The very thing
causing this to occur also causes a few of these thunderstorms to
become stronger and/or severe. PW values will be 2+" today but
will begin to fall back overnight into Wed morning and slowly fall
to 1.5-1.9" by Thursday. The dry air causing precip numbers to
fall will be found between 700-800mb. This will also cause
downburst numbers to slowly creep upward Wed and Thursday. Numbers
are in the lower 20s for Wed, so not as much of an issue although
there could still be a strong thunderstorm with this. Thursday,
is a little different. Numbers for Thursday are showing up in the
upper 20s and even as high as 36 for MCB. With numbers this high,
it will not be surprising at all for one or two thunderstorms to
have damaging wind speeds with it. This would be the main issue
with any severe thunderstorms Thursday. Accumulated severe wx
totals start out at 7 for most locations Thursday. BTR MCB and GPT
actually move up to an 8 during the afternoon and early evening.
MCB even goes to a 9 during the early evening Thursday. An 8 is
not common by no stretch, but a 9 is rare. The scale only goes to
10, which has never been seen so far. This shows that the
environment will be fully capable of producing a few severe
thunderstorms during that time frame. And ofcourse, this is
conditional. SPC does not have the area in any risk areas at the
moment, but it would not be surprising to see this occur over the
next 24 to 36 hours if these numbers continue to present. But we
will word this mornings products to show the possibility of a
severe thunderstorm occurring Thursday. Moisture begins to creep
back into these dry air layers by the end of the week causing
these downburst numbers to lower after Thursday. The heat and
humidity will remain with us through this fcast pack with a few
days bringing sh/ts while others are somewhat dry with respect to
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions expected to bounce back and forth between VFR and
MVFR/IFR as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
onshore through the morning hours.  Conditions expected to improve
by late morning and early afternoon. However...isolated showers and
storms could redevelop later in the afternoon.  Winds expected to be
south..southwesterly at 5 to 10 mph outside of thunderstorms
throughout most of the day for all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will continue through the period as surface
high pressure remains off the southeast US coast and eastern Gulf.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this morning but chances
will decrease by the weekend as upper ridging becomes more
pronounced over our area.  Winds will remain light today but
expected to increase Wednesday and Thursday as gradient becomes a
bit tighter with a surface low swinging through the Ohio Valley
along with a substantial surface high remaining over the eastern
Gulf. Winds will begin to relax by the weekend...remaining onshore
as a stacked ridge builds in overhead and to our east.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flood warnings continue along the Mississippi River.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green  = No weather
impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or
excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; Events of National
Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  71  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
BTR  89  74  91  76 /  50  10  20  10
ASD  89  73  91  76 /  70  30  20  10
MSY  89  77  91  79 /  60  30  20  10
GPT  86  75  89  78 /  70  30  30  10
PQL  86  73  91  76 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
419 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-182130-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
419 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms could become strong and produce strong gusty
winds up to 35 mph, cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy
downpours.

Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters today
mainly during the morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm will be possible
Wednesday with the best chances for a severe thunderstorm coming
Thursday. The main hazard expected with any severe weather will be
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

LAZ058>064-068>070-181245-
Orleans-Lower Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-St. Charles-Lower
Jefferson-Lower St. Bernard-St. John The Baptist-Upper
Lafourche-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Jefferson-
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...SOUTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD...ST. CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN
ORLEANS...NORTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
PLAQUEMINES PARISHES...

At 651 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Bayou Gauche to near
Lafitte to 7 miles southwest of Port Sulphur. Movement was north at
25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Avondale, Metairie, Hahnville, Marrero,
Harvey, East New Orleans, Timberlane, Belle Chasse, Port Sulphur,
Jefferson, Gretna, Harahan, Westwego, Jean Lafitte, Luling, Poydras,
River Ridge and Boutte.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2942 8978 2941 8988 2948 8984 2943 8991
      2944 8993 2946 8989 2966 9045 3029 9040
      3026 9033 3006 9038 3002 9011 3009 8993
      2994 8984 2984 8956 2975 8965 2962 8963
      2961 8973 2951 8966 2930 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 188DEG 23KT 2972 9034 2962 9007 2941 8978

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
706 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

MSZ077-080-181245-
Hancock-Pearl River-
706 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HANCOCK AND
CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 706 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mcneil, or 8
miles northeast of Picayune, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Poplarville and Mcneil.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3073 8934 3064 8934 3050 8957 3063 8972
      3087 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 225DEG 11KT 3062 8959

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
713 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

LAZ060>062-181300-
Orleans-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-
713 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. CHARLES...WEST
CENTRAL ORLEANS AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISHES...

At 713 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Luling, or near
Avondale, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Metairie, Avondale, Marrero, Jefferson, Harahan,
Westwego, Elmwood, Luling, Bridge City, River Ridge, Ama, Destrehan,
Waggaman, New Sarpy, St. Rose, Boutte, Norco, Bayou Gauche and New
Orleans Armstrong Airport.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2977 9039 3007 9039 3006 9037 3005 9026
      3002 9018 3003 9009 2975 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 188DEG 16KT 2984 9028

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