Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1141 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
10/06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sctd storms near the Acadiana terminals are beginning to weaken
and move NE, while a band of strong to svr storms over SE TX is
beginning to organize and should begin accelerating east over the
next hour or so (which seems to correspond well to recent HRRR
runs). In between some sctd storms have developed near the lower
Sabine River between BPT and LCH. Given the consistency in recent
HRRR runs and general agreement with current convective scenario,
trended toward its solution for overnight into Friday. Adjusted
TEMPO groups to reflect general timing of convective complex and
it moves east acrs the area overnight, between 06-09Z at BPT,
07-11Z at LCH and 09-13Z at LFT/ARA. The line could bring strong
wind gusts to BPT/LCH. Once the complex moves through, HRRR
guidance suggests minimal activity during the day Friday, although
am not inclined to rule out convection entirely as atmosphere
will remain moist and unstable so retained VC mention at all
sites. Cigs will initially be a mix of VFR/MVFR with lower
cigs/vsbys expected with convective band overnight. Winds will be
generally easterly, bcmg vrbl around SHRA/TSRA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  77  67  78 /  80  90  70  90
LCH  71  79  72  81 /  80  90  70  90
LFT  72  82  72  82 /  60  90  70  80
BPT  71  79  71  80 /  90  90  80  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
722 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
110030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
722 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Slight to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch
is in effect for all counties and parishes and this will now
include Iberia, St. Mary, and lower St. Martin Parishes in south
central Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Through Saturday night, Slight to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the area except for
Iberia, St. Mary, and lower St. Martin Parishes. The watch may
have to be extended into these parishes. Marginal Risk of Severe
Storms for potential damaging straight line winds and even a
quick spin up brief lived tornado.

Drier and more stable air is expected to move in during Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-110030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
722 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few storms may move into the coastal waters with locally higher
winds and seas along with frequent cloud to water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periods of showers and storms will be possible through Saturday
night. These storms will produce locally higher winds and seas,
frequent cloud to water lightning, along with greatly reduced
visibilities due to heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
140 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             3 E SAM RAYBURN DAM     31.06N 94.06W
05/09/2019  E2.50 INCH       JASPER             TX   PUBLIC

            VIDEO OF HAIL FALLING IN A PARKING LOT NEAR SAM RAYBURN.
            HAIL APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZED.

&&

SWARTHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW CENTRAL GARDENS    30.04N 94.07W
05/10/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT THAT WATER HAS MADE UNDERPASSES ALONG MLK
            JR. PKWY IMPASSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF LAMAR.

&&

SWARTHEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
202 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019

LAZ028-030>032-100745-
Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Rapides LA-
202 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RAPIDES...EAST
CENTRAL BEAUREGARD...WEST CENTRAL EVANGELINE AND NORTHEASTERN ALLEN
PARISHES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 202 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mittie, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oakdale, Oberlin, Elizabeth, Mittie, Grant, Allen Parish Airport,
Harmony, Beaver, Bond and Union Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
southwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3070 9241 3058 9292 3076 9308 3088 9292
      3088 9283 3095 9282 3103 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 240DEG 22KT 3071 9287

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S GROVES              29.93N 93.92W
05/10/2019  M60 MPH          JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION MEASURED WIND GUST TO 60 MPH IN
            GROVES.

&&

SWARTHEN

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