Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
730 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.UPDATE...
Have updated for Flash Flood Watch to now include parishes in
south-central Louisiana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019/

UPDATE...
Storms around se Tx and srn Louisiana will be the focus of issues
through the evening into the overnight hours. Ceilings... vsby...
and tstms will develop and move acrs these taf lctns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019/

SYNOPSIS...
Set up is shaping up for periods of heavy rainfall with potential
strong to severe storms through Saturday.

Flash flood is currently out through Saturday afternoon for all of
the forecast area with the exception of the lower Atchafalaya
area. Storm total rainfall amounts will average 3 to 8 inches
with some locally higher amounts to 12 inches or more. WPC also
has the forecast area under a Moderate to Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall that will lead to flooding through Saturday.

Slight risk for severe storms for the remainder of the afternoon
into tonight. A marginal risk for severe storms for Friday into
Saturday. Main hazard will be damaging straight line winds from
wet microburst or a quick spin-up short lived tornado. Although
with some dry air entrained in the mid levels according to the
09/17Z upper air sounding, some hail to quarter size can not be
ruled out into this evening.

Frontal system will begin to shift to the east and south during
Sunday with lowering rain chances and reduction in heavy rainfall
and severe risk.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
A slow moving surface boundary, numerous local mesoscale
boundaries, a series of upper level disturbances, and a moist
unstable air mass will all combine to bring rounds of showers and
storms.

With alot of the activity being driven by mesoscale boundaries,
there is some uncertainty in the exact placement/location of the
heavy rainfall. Also, with upper level disturbances in the
southwest flow, guidance is also off a little with the timing and
strength of each, so there is a little uncertainty for the exact
timing when the best coverage and intensity of the activity will
be.

In the short term, it looks like warm moist air will override an
outflow boundary that is nearing the coast. So bands of showers
and storms will continue from roughly the intracoastal waterway to
around highway 190 into the early evening, when activity should
tend to decrease. Due to some of the heavier rainfall reaching
parts of lower Acadiana this afternoon, had to extend the Flash
Flood Watch to include Vermilion, Lafayette, and Upper Saint
Martin Parishes. This also goes along with the placement of a
slight risk of excessive rainfall for that area from WPC.

After what could be a brief break later this evening, short term
guidance has a rather impressive MCS developing during the
overnight in east Texas as the surface cold front moves down into
the forecast area. This MCS will move east to west along the
boundary from southeast Texas into west central and southwest
Louisiana by Friday morning. If this system does as expected, then
some stabilization of the air mass could take place, and portions
of the forecast area could see a reduction in activity on Friday
afternoon, especially over southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana.

The process then repeats on Friday night into Saturday, with
another nocturnal MCS developing where the surface
boundary/mesoscale boundary is situated.

Still looks like decent agreement that the upper level trough gets
kicked off to the east during Sunday, and this gives us a little
more of a west to northwest flow aloft that pushes the boundary to
the east and south and allows some more stable and drier air to
move in from west to east during the day.

Still some differences in the medium range guidance as to how far
south the boundary moves and when it attempts to come back
bringing in the moist and unstable air early next week. At this
point will start bringing pops back in on Tuesday which is close
to national blend guidance.

Rua

MARINE...
Mainly light onshore flow will occur through Saturday as a weak
frontal boundary nears the coastal waters. A series of upper level
disturbances will combine with the frontal boundary to produce
periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be
strong producing locally higher winds and seas, along with
frequent cloud to water lightning, and greatly reduced
visibilitiesfrom heavy rainfall through Saturday night.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  77  67  78 /  80  90  70  90
LCH  71  79  72  81 /  80  90  70  90
LFT  72  82  72  82 /  60  90  70  80
BPT  71  79  71  80 /  90  90  80  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
722 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
110030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
722 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Slight to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch
is in effect for all counties and parishes and this will now
include Iberia, St. Mary, and lower St. Martin Parishes in south
central Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Through Saturday night, Slight to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the area except for
Iberia, St. Mary, and lower St. Martin Parishes. The watch may
have to be extended into these parishes. Marginal Risk of Severe
Storms for potential damaging straight line winds and even a
quick spin up brief lived tornado.

Drier and more stable air is expected to move in during Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-110030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
722 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few storms may move into the coastal waters with locally higher
winds and seas along with frequent cloud to water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periods of showers and storms will be possible through Saturday
night. These storms will produce locally higher winds and seas,
frequent cloud to water lightning, along with greatly reduced
visibilities due to heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
715 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

LAZ045-053-055-100030-
Lower St. Martin LA-Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-
715 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Catahoula to 10 miles northeast of
Charenton. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Catahoula.

LAT...LON 3001 9123 3000 9126 2995 9125 2992 9144
      2996 9149 3024 9173 3030 9161 3024 9157
      3023 9148 3020 9149 3019 9147 3014 9147
      3013 9146 3011 9147 3010 9146 3010 9139
      3006 9137 3006 9127 3003 9124 3004 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 251DEG 18KT 3021 9162 3001 9144

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHURCH POINT            30.40N 92.21W
05/09/2019                   ACADIA             LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED WITH LA 35 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
740 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ201-100130-
Hardin TX-
740 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thicket, moving north at 5 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sour Lake, Saratoga, Thicket, Batson and Votaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3053 9455 3053 9452 3012 9434
      3010 9442 3011 9443 3011 9460 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 167DEG 5KT 3034 9460

K. Kuyper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
744 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

LAZ045-100100-
Upper St. Martin LA-
744 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 744 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Catahoula, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Catahoula, Breaux Bridge, St. Martinville, Butte La Rose, Lake Pelba
and Parks.

LAT...LON 3020 9149 3011 9168 3012 9170 3012 9173
      3011 9177 3009 9177 3021 9188 3043 9164
      3039 9162 3036 9165 3035 9163 3031 9162
      3028 9159 3026 9159 3024 9156 3024 9151
      3023 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 231DEG 22KT 3020 9175

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
809 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

LAZ045-053-054-100145-
Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-St. Mary LA-
809 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
over Butte La Rose, or near Catahoula, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Catahoula, Breaux Bridge, St. Martinville, Jeanerette,
Loreauville, Butte La Rose, Lake Fausse Pointe, Sorrel and Parks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 9167 3014 9192 3015 9191 3018 9192
      3018 9196 3020 9197 3039 9163 3036 9165
      3035 9163 3031 9162 3026 9159 3024 9156
      3023 9147 3020 9149 3019 9147 3013 9146
      3011 9147 3010 9139 3006 9137 3005 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 229DEG 23KT 3026 9171

K. Kuyper

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             SARATOGA                30.28N 94.53W
05/09/2019  E2.75 INCH       HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF PERSON HOLDING HAIL SEEMINGLY
            AROUND BASEBALL SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

SWARTHEN