Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
654 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Line of storms continues to move into south central Louisiana
this morning. The greatest impacts will be LFT and ARA this
morning with ongoing convection and TEMPO groups. Strong winds
...frequent lightning and reduced visibility can be expected this
morning. In addition...heavy rain will also occur at times. MVFR
ceilings expected across ARA/LFT terminals all morning with vfr
expected in the afternoon. The rest of the terminals are expected
to be going improvements with AEX looking better already VFR and
BPT/LCH MVFR this morning but VFR this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

UPDATE...Just updated ZFP to include severe weather verbiage
within text.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

UPDATE...Convection beginning to sag somewhat south and have
seen development of a fairly strong cell over Jeff Davis parish
where a warning may be required shortly. Have expanded Tornado
Watch 191 to include Jeff Davis and Vermilion and all our
remaining parishes to the east. Watch in effect until 10 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...An active morning ongoing with strong to severe
thunderstorms advancing across central Louisiana where a Tornado
Watch is in effect until 10 AM CDT. Earlier activity over interior
southeast Texas has weakened and the Tornado Watch was allowed to
expire at 4 AM CDT.

Convection associated with a sharp and negatively tilted
mid/upper level trof now approaching the Mississippi valley,
CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg and favorable shear. Activity
has been very limited along and south of the Interstate 10
corridor and where lift has been limited. Will see a west to
east ending of the convection through the day as aforementioned
trof advances further east and northeast and flow aloft trends dry
west to northwest.

Pattern through the remainder of the week looks overall dry. Did
have to include a low end chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon for the northeast portion of the
forecast area. This associated with some weak energy incoming as
flow aloft comes back around to the southwest as another vigorous
low advances into the plains then advances north. This is
followed by a second cyclone culminating into a deep trof for the
western CONUS and an amplifying and retrograding ridge for the
east CONUS. Dry pattern thus expected.

MARINE...A moderate early morning southeast flow will gradually
relax as strong low pressure advances northeast through the
eastern plains. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system will be ending west to east through the day. An overall dry
pattern is expected to prevail through the week, but winds will
strengthen going into Tuesday and Wednesday as another strong
storm system advances across the plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  73  88  73 /  60  10  20  10
LCH  85  75  86  76 /  50  10  10  10
LFT  84  74  87  75 /  70  10  20  10
BPT  86  76  86  76 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
540 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
201045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
540 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a potential through
much of the morning over central, southwest and south central
Louisiana. Tornado Watch 191 is in effect for much of this area
through 10 AM CDT. Tornadoes as well as damaging straight-line
winds and hail will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No significant weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-201045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
540 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A moderate early morning southeast flow will gradually
relax as strong low pressure advances northeast through the
eastern plains. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system will be ending west to east through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A dry weather pattern is expected through the week with an onshore
flow continuing. There will be an strengthening of winds moving
through Tuesday and Wednesday as strong low pressure develops over
the plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
418 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     TORNADO          7 NNE SINGER            30.75N 93.37W
05/19/2019                   BEAUREGARD         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOTS OF TREES DOWN ON JIM WEST ROAD. RADAR INDICATED WELL
            DEFINED DEBRIS BALL SIGNATURE.

0317 AM     TORNADO          4 NNE SINGER            30.71N 93.39W
05/19/2019                   BEAUREGARD         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AT MITCHELL LOOP. RESIDENT THERE HAS A TREE
            FALLEN INSIDE HER HOME WITH WATER IN THE HOME. RADAR
            DETECTED A WELL DEFINED DEBRIS BALL SIGNATURE AT THAT
            LOCATION.

&&

FNAVEJAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
438 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE TOWN BLUFF        30.81N 94.13W
05/19/2019                   JASPER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOTS OF TREES DOWN AND LOTS OF DEBRIS JUST INSIDE OF
            JASPER COUNTY. TREE ON A HOUSE. FIRE

            DEPARTMENT...ELECTRIC COMPANY...LAW ENFORCEMENT AT SCENE.

&&

FNAVEJAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
509 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 AM     TSTM WND DMG     12 ENE ROCKLAND         31.07N 94.19W
05/19/2019                   JASPER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN EITHER SIDE OF RECREATION ROAD 255 AT STATE
            HIGHWAY 63.

&&

FNAVEJAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

LAZ031-042-043-191115-
Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Allen LA-
529 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHERN ACADIA
AND SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 529 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elton to near Fenton to Buller to
Dequincy. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crowley, Jennings, Church Point, Welsh, Kinder, Iota, Elton,
Mermentau, Fenton, Evangeline, Mowata, Buller, Topsy, Maxie, Egan,
Pine Island, Branch, Leblanc, Estherwood and Roanoke.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for central and
southwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3033 9303 3038 9303 3038 9310 3041 9313
      3042 9313 3044 9303 3057 9290 3050 9262
      3049 9262 3048 9263 3048 9255 3039 9220
      3021 9234 3017 9250 3016 9282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 293DEG 33KT 3051 9277 3041 9293 3039 9305 3048
9344

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE VILLE PLATTE      30.70N 92.26W
05/19/2019                   EVANGELINE         LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OEP REPORTING GAS PUMPS DEMOLISHED AT THE GAS STATION
            LOCATED AT THE CORNER OF WHITEVILLE RD. AND TATE COVE RD.
            WITH NUMEROUS OTHER DAMAGE REPORTS AROUND THE CITY.
            TORNADO POSSIBLE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

SWARTHEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
700 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

LAZ052-074-191300-
Vermilion LA-East Cameron LA-
700 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CAMERON AND
VERMILION PARISHES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

At 659 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wright to 9 miles south of Gueydan to 11
miles north of Rockefeller Wildlife Range. Movement was southeast at
25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Intracoastal City, Forked Island, Pecan Island, Freshwater City,
Esther and Florence Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for south central
and southwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 2957 9253 2986 9282 2993 9253 3001 9244
      2984 9197 2979 9198 2972 9215 2973 9215
      2976 9213 2974 9217 2975 9221 2971 9218
      2969 9210 2969 9211 2967 9213 2961 9210
      2962 9207 2958 9211 2953 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1159Z 297DEG 20KT 2997 9239 2990 9246 2985 9273

MM