River Flood Warning 87, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
654 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Line of storms continues to move into south central Louisiana
this morning. The greatest impacts will be LFT and ARA this
morning with ongoing convection and TEMPO groups. Strong winds
...frequent lightning and reduced visibility can be expected this
morning. In addition...heavy rain will also occur at times. MVFR
ceilings expected across ARA/LFT terminals all morning with vfr
expected in the afternoon. The rest of the terminals are expected
to be going improvements with AEX looking better already VFR and
BPT/LCH MVFR this morning but VFR this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

UPDATE...Just updated ZFP to include severe weather verbiage
within text.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

UPDATE...Convection beginning to sag somewhat south and have
seen development of a fairly strong cell over Jeff Davis parish
where a warning may be required shortly. Have expanded Tornado
Watch 191 to include Jeff Davis and Vermilion and all our
remaining parishes to the east. Watch in effect until 10 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...An active morning ongoing with strong to severe
thunderstorms advancing across central Louisiana where a Tornado
Watch is in effect until 10 AM CDT. Earlier activity over interior
southeast Texas has weakened and the Tornado Watch was allowed to
expire at 4 AM CDT.

Convection associated with a sharp and negatively tilted
mid/upper level trof now approaching the Mississippi valley,
CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg and favorable shear. Activity
has been very limited along and south of the Interstate 10
corridor and where lift has been limited. Will see a west to
east ending of the convection through the day as aforementioned
trof advances further east and northeast and flow aloft trends dry
west to northwest.

Pattern through the remainder of the week looks overall dry. Did
have to include a low end chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon for the northeast portion of the
forecast area. This associated with some weak energy incoming as
flow aloft comes back around to the southwest as another vigorous
low advances into the plains then advances north. This is
followed by a second cyclone culminating into a deep trof for the
western CONUS and an amplifying and retrograding ridge for the
east CONUS. Dry pattern thus expected.

MARINE...A moderate early morning southeast flow will gradually
relax as strong low pressure advances northeast through the
eastern plains. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system will be ending west to east through the day. An overall dry
pattern is expected to prevail through the week, but winds will
strengthen going into Tuesday and Wednesday as another strong
storm system advances across the plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  73  88  73 /  60  10  20  10
LCH  85  75  86  76 /  50  10  10  10
LFT  84  74  87  75 /  70  10  20  10
BPT  86  76  86  76 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
540 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
201045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
540 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a potential through
much of the morning over central, southwest and south central
Louisiana. Tornado Watch 191 is in effect for much of this area
through 10 AM CDT. Tornadoes as well as damaging straight-line
winds and hail will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No significant weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-201045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
540 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A moderate early morning southeast flow will gradually
relax as strong low pressure advances northeast through the
eastern plains. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system will be ending west to east through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A dry weather pattern is expected through the week with an onshore
flow continuing. There will be an strengthening of winds moving
through Tuesday and Wednesday as strong low pressure develops over
the plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
739 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

LAZ041-042-191330-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-
739 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS AND
NORTHEASTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

At 739 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Topsy, or 7 miles northeast of Moss Bluff, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Welsh, Iowa, Fenton, Pine Island, Buller, Topsy, Lebleu
Settlement, Lacassine and Roanoke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for southwestern
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3030 9320 3040 9318 3040 9313 3042 9313
      3042 9307 3044 9306 3044 9293 3043 9269
      3016 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1239Z 280DEG 19KT 3037 9311

MM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
918 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE CADE              30.03N 91.88W
05/19/2019  M56 MPH          IBERIA             LA   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KARA NEW IBERIA.

&&