Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Far heavier rain event acrs SW/S LA than anticipated with rain
amounts from 4 to nearly 8 inches south of I-10, with the highest
totals acrs SE Calcasieu/NE Cameron/SW Jeff Davis Parishes. This
activity developed more rapidly overnight than model guidance
indicated, then continued to train along a boundary/convergence
zone that extended ESE just inland of the coast with lift aided
by an impulse embedded within the base of a shortwave over OK.

Fcst update this morning to adjust more closely to observation and
fcst trends. Heaviest/strongest convection has transitioned toward
the Acadiana region and coastal LA but additional activity (not
quite as intense or heavy) continues to develop acrs SE TX.
Guidance continues to suggest another band of convection
developing acrs the lakes region and W LA (where sctd convection
is already seen) and move acrs at least the northern zones later
this aftn so kept highest PoPs in this area.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019/

AVIATION...

VCTS with MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to continue at all area
TAF sites through 15Z with +TSRA possible at KARA/KLFT/KLCH.
Another period of VCTS will then be possible at all area TAF sites
through 21Z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end at that
time, but ceilings are expected to remain MVFR/IFR and drop to
IFR/LIFR after sunset. Away from the vicinity of thunderstorms,
winds are expected to be out of the S/SE at 10-15 knots.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and variable
winds of 20 knots with gusts above 30 possible.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather warnings in effect earlier this morning, primary
for hail and wind. The first significant upper level disturbance
has ignited an area of strong to severe thunderstorms across SE
TX/W LA this morning, moving northeast between 35-45 mph. Most
model guidance did not show this forming this rapidly, except for
the NAM12 which was depicting increased convection much earlier
than the blended guidance. Thus, leaned on this solution for early
updated forecast this morning, including the mention of severe
thunderstorms areawide. SPC has entire area in slight risk of
severe thunderstorms in the Day 1 outlook that officially starts
at 12z. Due to the faster development of thunderstorms, will
consider this starting now.

Strong to severe thunderstorms expected primarily over C and SC LA
after daybreak this morning into the afternoon hours as the
shortwave axis moves further east. Convection expected to diminish
by sunset when the disturbance is expected east of the forecast
area. For the severe weather threat, hail and damaging winds the
primary threat, along with possible tornadoes with the supercell
development. By tonight and Friday, lower pops with the exiting
disturbance to the east.

The second upper level storm system to affect the region is
expected to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday
night into Sunday. The 00z GFS/ECMWF solutions show the greatest
lift moving north of the area, but still shows some training
possible, thus the heavy rain potential. Due to the model run to
run differences, too early to talk storm totals just yet.

The upper level disturbance expected to move east of the area
Monday, bringing a weak front and the end of the precipitation by
Monday afternoon.

DML

MARINE...
Elevated onshore flow will continue through this afternoon as low
pressure deepens over the Plains. Periods of moderate to
occasionally strong southerly winds will continue through the
weekend. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms expected today,
and again Saturday as two distinct upper level disturbances affect
the region. A weak cold front expected to bring offshore flow and
an end to the showers and thunderstorms by Monday night.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  65  80  65 /  80  40  20  20
LCH  72  68  79  67 /  80  20  20  20
LFT  72  68  80  67 /  90  30  20  20
BPT  73  68  79  67 /  80  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
051200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area today, with
some severe thunderstorms possible. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning possible across any given area. Any severe storms that
develop will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds as well
as a few isolated tornadoes. There is also a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall over Central and Southern Louisiana due to
repetitive development of thunderstorms over the same area. The
showers and thunderstorms is expected to diminish after sunset
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Low chances of precipitation for Friday. The next significant
upper level disturbance expected to bring a prolonged chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A
slight risk of severe thunderstorms is also outlooked by the Storm
Prediction Center for severe thunderstorms. Any severe storms
that develop on Thursday will be capable of producing hail,
damaging winds as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation requested for today, and possibly Saturday.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-051200-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area today, with
some severe thunderstorms possible. Frequent cloud to water lightning
possible across any given area. Any severe storms that develop
will be capable of producing hail, high winds as well as a few
isolated waterspouts. The showers and thunderstorms is expected
to diminish after sunset this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Low chances of precipitation for Friday. The next significant
upper level disturbance expected to bring a prolonged chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A
slight risk of severe thunderstorms is also outlooked by the Storm
Prediction Center for severe thunderstorms. Frequent cloud to
water lightning possible across any given area. Any severe storms
that develop will be capable of producing hail, high winds as well
as a few isolated waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation requested for today, and possibly Saturday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
848 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KAPLAN                  30.00N 92.28W
04/04/2019                   VERMILION          LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT FROM BROADCAST MEDIA OF MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN
            ON SOME ELECTRICAL LINES.

&&

RMEGNIA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
911 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

LAZ041>044-052-074-041515-
Calcasieu LA-Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Lafayette LA-Vermilion LA-
East Cameron LA-
911 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN CAMERON...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHERN
ACADIA...SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU AND NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISHES
UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 911 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Arthur, moving east at 55 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crowley, Jennings, Rayne, Lake Arthur, Gueydan, Mermentau, Lacassine
National Wildlife Refuge, Hayes, Klondike, Morse, Riceville, Indian
Bayou, Egan, Thornwell, Lowry, Lyons Point, Estherwood, Bell City and
Midland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9304 3015 9298 3033 9223 3008 9218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1411Z 253DEG 46KT 3008 9269

K. Kuyper

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
954 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LYDIA                   29.92N 91.78W
04/04/2019                   IBERIA             LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLC SENT PICTURE OF POWER POLLS DOWN AND LEANING IN
            LYDIA ALONG US90

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAKE CHARLES            30.21N 93.20W
04/04/2019                   CALCASIEU          LA   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWED DEEP WATER ON RYAN ST OFF
            THE I210 WESTBOUND RAMP.

&&

RMEGNIA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

LAZ033-041>045-052>055-074-041615-
Calcasieu LA-Lower St. Martin LA-Acadia LA-Iberia LA-
Jefferson Davis LA-Lafayette LA-St. Landry LA-Vermilion LA-
Upper St. Martin LA-St. Mary LA-East Cameron LA-
1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1024 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
across coastal Louisiana parishes of Cameron... Vermilion...
Iberia... St Mary... St Martin... southern Lafayette... Acadia and
Jefferson Davis. These storms were moving east around 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Lake Charles, New Iberia, Crowley, Morgan City, Abbeville,
Catahoula, Jennings, Scott, Breaux Bridge, Rayne, Franklin, Carencro,
St. Martinville, Patterson, Jeanerette, Berwick, Kaplan, Welsh and
Lake Arthur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2953 9129 2957 9154 2963 9166 2976 9162
      2962 9184 2963 9193 2983 9183 2984 9188
      2975 9221 2973 9220 2966 9213 2979 9302
      3016 9327 3047 9167 3026 9159 3023 9147
      3011 9147 3006 9133 2960 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 081DEG 4KT 3002 9303

K. Kuyper