Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
618 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

.AVIATION...

VCTS with MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to continue at all area
TAF sites through 15Z with +TSRA possible at KARA/KLFT/KLCH.
Another period of VCTS will then be possible at all area TAF sites
through 21Z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end at that
time, but ceilings are expected to remain MVFR/IFR and drop to
IFR/LIFR after sunset. Away from the vicinity of thunderstorms,
winds are expected to be out of the S/SE at 10-15 knots.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and variable
winds of 20 knots with gusts above 30 possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather warnings in effect earlier this morning, primary
for hail and wind. The first significant upper level disturbance
has ignited an area of strong to severe thunderstorms across SE
TX/W LA this morning, moving northeast between 35-45 mph. Most
model guidance did not show this forming this rapidly, except for
the NAM12 which was depicting increased convection much earlier
than the blended guidance. Thus, leaned on this solution for early
updated forecast this morning, including the mention of severe
thunderstorms areawide. SPC has entire area in slight risk of
severe thunderstorms in the Day 1 outlook that officially starts
at 12z. Due to the faster development of thunderstorms, will
consider this starting now.

Strong to severe thunderstorms expected primarily over C and SC LA
after daybreak this morning into the afternoon hours as the
shortwave axis moves further east. Convection expected to diminish
by sunset when the disturbance is expected east of the forecast
area. For the severe weather threat, hail and damaging winds the
primary threat, along with possible tornadoes with the supercell
development. By tonight and Friday, lower pops with the exiting
disturbance to the east.

The second upper level storm system to affect the region is
expected to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday
night into Sunday. The 00z GFS/ECMWF solutions show the greatest
lift moving north of the area, but still shows some training
possible, thus the heavy rain potential. Due to the model run to
run differences, too early to talk storm totals just yet.

The upper level disturbance expected to move east of the area
Monday, bringing a weak front and the end of the precipitation by
Monday afternoon.

DML

MARINE...
Elevated onshore flow will continue through this afternoon as low
pressure deepens over the Plains. Periods of moderate to
occasionally strong southerly winds will continue through the
weekend. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms expected today,
and again Saturday as two distinct upper level disturbances affect
the region. A weak cold front expected to bring offshore flow and
an end to the showers and thunderstorms by Monday night.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  65  80  65 /  80  40  20  20
LCH  72  68  79  67 /  80  20  20  20
LFT  72  68  80  67 /  80  30  20  20
BPT  73  68  79  67 /  80  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
051200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area today, with
some severe thunderstorms possible. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning possible across any given area. Any severe storms that
develop will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds as well
as a few isolated tornadoes. There is also a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall over Central and Southern Louisiana due to
repetitive development of thunderstorms over the same area. The
showers and thunderstorms is expected to diminish after sunset
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Low chances of precipitation for Friday. The next significant
upper level disturbance expected to bring a prolonged chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A
slight risk of severe thunderstorms is also outlooked by the Storm
Prediction Center for severe thunderstorms. Any severe storms
that develop on Thursday will be capable of producing hail,
damaging winds as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation requested for today, and possibly Saturday.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-051200-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area today, with
some severe thunderstorms possible. Frequent cloud to water lightning
possible across any given area. Any severe storms that develop
will be capable of producing hail, high winds as well as a few
isolated waterspouts. The showers and thunderstorms is expected
to diminish after sunset this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Low chances of precipitation for Friday. The next significant
upper level disturbance expected to bring a prolonged chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A
slight risk of severe thunderstorms is also outlooked by the Storm
Prediction Center for severe thunderstorms. Frequent cloud to
water lightning possible across any given area. Any severe storms
that develop will be capable of producing hail, high winds as well
as a few isolated waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation requested for today, and possibly Saturday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     HAIL             3 SSW DE RIDDER         30.80N 93.31W
04/04/2019  E1.75 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL SOUTH OF DERIDDER.

&&

MEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW CAMERON            29.77N 93.34W
04/04/2019  M46 MPH          CAMERON            LA   C-MAN STATION

            C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 40 KNOT GUST.

&&

MEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 AM     HAIL             3 SSW CANEY HEAD        30.46N 94.19W
04/04/2019  E1.75 INCH       HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC POSTED PHOTO OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

MEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     HAIL             3 N SILSBEE             30.39N 94.19W
04/04/2019  E1.00 INCH       HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC POSTED PHOTO OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL TO SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
713 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 AM     HAIL             1 N MAMOU               30.65N 92.42W
04/04/2019  E1.00 INCH       EVANGELINE         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA POSTED PHOTOS OF MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL NEAR MAMOU.

&&

MEGNIA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
725 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

LAZ031-041-042-041315-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Allen LA-
725 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 725 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westlake, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Jennings, Westlake, Welsh, Iowa, Kinder, Fenton, Moss
Bluff, Buller, Lebleu Settlement, Pine Island, Roanoke, Lacassine and
Hathaway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9329 3054 9273 3032 9263 3032 9262
      3031 9262 3030 9263 3028 9262 3025 9263
      3012 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1225Z 249DEG 31KT 3021 9326

RM12