Gale Warning 6, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Severe threat will continue east of the gust front for the next
few hours with system taking on a qlcs feature, meaning bow
segments and notches that could produce wind damage or quick spin
up tornadoes. Still a brief time for some discrete cells to have
rotation coming off the Gulf into lower Acadiana through the early
afternoon. Also, with storms with high rainfall rates beginning to
train along the slowing gust front, there is a potential for flash
flooding until the upper level trough picks up speed during the
early afternoon to begins to dry slot the forecast area by mid
afternoon that will end the flood and severe threat.

Rua

&&

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 751 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

UPDATE...
With the last storm moving across the Sabine into w-cntl LA, have
canceled the last two sern TX counties from WW#81.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Our big weather story for the day continues to unfold to our west
as our expected squall line remains on a beeline for extreme sern
TX. Warnings with this line have been a little more common over
its nrn portion (primarily nrn HGX and SHV forecast areas) where
the line has interacted with less dry air entrainment/capping
aloft. The line is being fed by an area of strong low/mid-level
convergence ahead of an advancing shortwave crossing wrn TX, along
with a good divergent flow aloft. As was stated this time
yesterday morning, forecast soundings show good to excellent
severe parameters across our area for later this morning...primary
question remains how long capping around 875 mb will hold. Recent
radar trends show the srn end of the line becoming a bit more
ragged, although short-range high res guidance indicates a
secondary stronger line could develop across the swrn zones by
late morning before pushing ewd across the remainder of the
forecast area through the afternoon...regardless, rain chances
remain high for today with the potential remaining solid for
severe weather which has been inserted into the grids/zones for
now. Will also have to watch for potential flooding issued,
primarily across the nrn zones where mean QPFs are higher...for
now, QPFs look to stay below flash flood guidance levels so have
decided to hold off on any watches for now. One last thing for
first period issues...have issued a Wind Advisory for lower
Acadiana beginning late morning and valid through the afternoon as
srly winds are progged to increase to 20 knots as the gradient
continues to tighten and stronger winds aloft mix down. Convection
will work its way past the Atchafalaya by late afternoon with a
few lingering showers possible over the far ern zones through the
early evening.

The holiday weekend looks fine as a drier/briefly cooler airmass
builds over in wake of the passing storm system. Wake up temps
Friday morning look to be in the lower/mid 50s while highs
tomorrow are currently progged to struggle to reach 70 across the
nern 1/2 of the area (lower 70s swrn 1/2). Saturday morning looks
even cooler with mins in the 40s all but the coast. With sfc high
pressure moving east of the area and heights beginning to build
aloft, a warm up is expected to commence Saturday and continue
into the new week.

Some discrepancies are noted in long-range solutions for the next
storm system crossing the wrn CONUS early next week. For now,
expect rain chances to begin nudging upward by Tuesday.

MARINE...
Have upgraded the SCA to a Gale Warning for the coastal waters
from Cameron ewd as gusts are progged to exceed 35 knots for a
brief time from late morning through early afternoon. Expect the
need for another Gale Warning for tonight once the front passes
and a strong offshore flow develops...with gusts progged to run
around 40 knots at that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  51  68  45 / 100  10  10   0
LCH  79  53  72  49 / 100  10   0   0
LFT  79  53  70  48 / 100  10  10   0
BPT  80  53  72  49 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ028-029-
     031>033-042>045-052>055-074.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ044-045-052>055.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ052>054.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ452-455-472-475.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ452-455-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through late tonight for GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ435.

&&

PUBLIC...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
548 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
191100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
548 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An upper level storm system along with a surface cold front will
clash with a moist and unstable air mass to produce showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather as it crosses
the area today.

An Enhanced Risk (30 percent) that severe weather will occur
within 25 miles of a point is outlined roughly east of a
Leesville to Cameron line. The primary hazard with the severe
storms will be damaging wind gusts, although there is a small
chance (5 to 10 percent) for tornadoes and/or large hail.

West of a Leesville to Cameron line to the Sabine River, a Slight
Risk (15 percent) of severe weather is outlined, mainly from
damaging winds and/or large hail.

In addition, there is a Slight Risk (10-20 percent) of excessive
rainfall leading to flooding east of a Leesville to Abbeville
line, and a Marginal Risk (5-10 percent) of excessive rainfall
leading to flooding across the remainder of southwest Louisiana
and all of southeast Texas. This will be mainly from street
flooding due to high rainfall rates falling in poor drainage
areas. Also, high tides along the coast may back- up some drainage
systems in lower Acadiana that run into the Gulf.

Due to strong south winds ahead of the front, tides will run about
1 to 2 feet above predicted levels that may cause some water run
up along the coast and minor coastal flooding for lower Acadiana
and the lower Atchafalaya Basin. Also, a Wind Advisory is in
effect for the late morning and afternoon hours for lower Acadiana
as sustained winds in excess of 20 mph are expected.

All the showers and storms are expected to move east of the
Atchafalaya River by early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Drier and cooler weather is expected for Friday before
temperatures begin to moderate as we move through the weekend.
Rain chances return to the region by the middle of next week as
the next storm system approaches the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-191100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
548 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Gale Warning has been issued for the coastal waters east of
Cameron for late this morning and early this afternoon as wind
gusts exceeding 35 knots look possible. Otherwise small craft
advisory conditions are expected on the coastal waters as low
pressure deepens over the Plains States, tightening the pressure
gradient over the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

Widespread showers and scattered, sometimes strong thunderstorms
will develop along and ahead of a passing cold front today. Behind
the front, a strong offshore flow is forecast to develop...with
gale force wind gusts again likely late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Once winds diminish on Friday, no hazardous weather is expected
through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

25

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