Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

The main concern this forecast period is thunderstorm development
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to
develop across northwest Nebraska this afternoon. There is some
inconsistencies with the models in how far eastward the
thunderstorms will sustain themselves. Leaned more with HRRR and
HREF where storms will form into a cluster across northern
Nebraska and drop southeastward but should enter a less favorable
environment and will begin to diminish before reaching portions
of southwest and central Nebraska.

Storms that occur late this afternoon and evening have the
potential to become strong to severe, with the main hazards being
strong winds, large hail and heavy rain potential. The best chance
for severe thunderstorms will be across northwestern Nebraska,
mainly along and west of a line from Kilgore to Ellsworth.

A cold front will push through the area on Monday. There is a
chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in
association with the cold front. At this time the severe threat
looks to be marginal as storms may develop behind the cold front
in a less favorable environment for severe storms but with the
amount of moister in the area could have the potential for heavy
rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

Surface high pressure will sit over the Central Plains Tuesday
into Wednesday before a frontal boundary moves through the area
Wednesday evening. Highs will remain seasonal in the 80s, with
slight chances of thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A better chance of widespread thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon in association with the cold front. Cooler temperatures
on Thursday and Friday with highs only in the upper 70s to low
80s. There will be a chance of thunderstorms Thursday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

Scattered thunderstorms across the central Sandhills to near VTN
will continue to push south and east this evening. Expect quickly
improving conditions at VTN with return to VFR by 05/01z. Rain and
storms will move into TIF/ANW/ONL areas by 05/02-04z timeframe and
be capable of brief strong winds up to 35 knots and visibility
less than 1 mile with RA+. Confidence in impacts at LBF are low at
the moment so have limited wording to VCSH for now with possible
amendments to come later.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Jurgensen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 /240 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms across the northwest Sandhills, mainly
northwest of a line from Valentine through Thedford and Ellsworth
will be capable of producing large hail, strong wind gusts and
heavy rainfall this evening. Thunderstorms will track further
southeastward this evening into the Sandhills and portions of
southwest Nebraska and may produce small hail, gusty winds and
brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Additional scattered thunderstorms will move southeast across the
area Monday afternoon and evening. A few of these could be
severe.

An active pattern will bring chances for thunderstorms through
much of the week Tuesday through Saturday. Later forecasts will
determine any severe threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Roberg

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