Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Strong southwest flow aloft combined with strong southerly low
level flow ahead of the dryline will be providing sufficient deep
layer shear to generate supercells along the dryline after about 3
PM CDT. Bunkers right-moving supercells will be from the
southwest and rapid - about 35 kts or so making supercell
interaction likely. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with initial development and as storms remain in the warm sector.
As expected, storms that encounter the warm from will have an
enhanced tornado threat as explains in prev SPC and the mesoscale
update discussions. As upper support strengthens through the
evening the small clusters will likely grow upscale to one or two
large convective systems with large hail and damaging winds a
continued threat. Storms push north into SD after midnight. Cold
front overtakes the area through the night.

Mainly a dry start to Saturday but a secondary frontal surge will
drop quickly south across the area. Some chance for weak
thunderstorm development along this front Sat afternoon though
coverage is expected to be limited.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

A cooler and wetter pattern shapes up for the first half of the work
week as yet another upper low becomes negatively tilted and closes
off over the Great Basin area. Deep southerly flow ahead of this
feature across the central and southern Plains will allow moisture
to return and increase across the area setting the stage for a
prolonged rain event in areas that have seen plenty of rain already
this year. While some deterministic solutions suggest snow at least
mixing with rain in the far northwest portion of the area,
believe at this time a lack of deep cold air will preclude
anything but a brief mix Tuesday night at this point, and
confidence on that is low. So will leave precip type as all rain
for now.

Chances for rain continue through the remainder of the week as well
and another system drops into the main long wave trough across the
west by late Wedneday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Storm conditions continue this evening until around 06z.
Thereafter, VFR is expected along and south of highway 2 with
IFR/MVFR/local LIFR in low or very low ceilings north of highway
2. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected 12z-18z Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-182030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
318 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 /218 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across much of
western and north central Nebraska through tonight. All types of
severe weather will be possible with these storms including very
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The greatest
risk for tornadoes is expected to be south and east of a line from
O'Neill to Thedford to Big Springs. North of this area very large
hail will be possible along with damaging winds.

Locally heavy rain will also be possible with any of the stronger
storms initially, as well as later this evening when the storms
merge across north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Heavy rainfall is possible Monday through Wednesday with most
locations seeing greater than 1" of rain and some locations
exceeding 2" total.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this evening across much of
southwest into central Nebraska.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
831 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

NEZ036-037-059-180200-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
831 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN...WESTERN LOGAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 831 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Dickens to near Ringgold.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
North Platte, Stapleton, Lake Maloney State Recreation Area, North
Platte Airport, Ringgold, Keith and Birdwood.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 212 and 234.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 23.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 166 and 189.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 68 and 126.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4096 10056 4172 10043 4146 10093 4083 10102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 228DEG 37KT 4093 10090 4145 10080

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
837 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

NEZ006-180200-
Keya Paha NE-
837 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KEYA PAHA COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springview, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springview, Burton and Nets Peak.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 209 and 225.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 33 and 61.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4275 9973 4284 10002 4300 10000 4300 9990
      4299 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 212DEG 26KT 4288 9980

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
839 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

NEZ005-024-025-036-094-180215-
Eastern Cherry NE-Hooker NE-McPherson NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
839 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY...HOOKER...
NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND WESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT/815 PM MDT/...

At 839 PM CDT/739 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 20 miles northwest of
Mullen to 9 miles north of Tryon. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mullen, Thedford, Seneca, Merritt Reservoir, Marsh Flat, Norway,
Giant Hill, Sevenmile Hill, Natwick, Hecla, Kelso and Shimmons Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 172 and 217.
 Highway 92 near mile marker 200.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 34 and 117.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 141 and 160.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/ for
north central and west central Nebraska.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4266 10086 4197 10043 4154 10103 4228 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 224DEG 49KT 4228 10127 4170 10096

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
849 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

NEZ005-006-008-180230-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Keya Paha NE-
849 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHERRY...BROWN AND
WESTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Keyapaha to near Johnstown
to near Elsmere. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Springview, Johnstown, Elsmere, Norden, Wood Lake, Hofeld
Lake, Raven, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area, Moon Lake,
Meadville, North River Trail, Sparks, Willow Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Long Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Smith
Falls State Park and Antelope Peak.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 214 and 224.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 219 and 245.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 10 and 51.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4291 9973 4215 9988 4214 10033 4256 10023
      4300 10046 4300 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 216DEG 21KT 4297 10022 4263 10003 4220 10014

Snively