Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS North Platte, NE

176 
WWUS53 KLBF 200310
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1010 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

NEC101-111-135-200320-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0280.000000T0000Z-190920T0315Z/
Perkins NE-Keith NE-Lincoln NE-
1010 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PERKINS...SOUTHEASTERN
KEITH AND SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM
CDT/915 PM MDT/...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4070 10162 4116 10180 4119 10118 4071 10122
      4070 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 172DEG 23KT 4112 10150 

$$

Jurgensen/CLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Forecast concern for tonight will be the potential for locally
heavy rainfall across portions of southwest Nebraska. Strong warm
air advection occurring at the surface across western and central
Kansas this afternoon, where south winds are gusting to 20kt and
temperatures near 93 degrees. Latest CAMs models indicate a few
clusters of thunderstorms developing in western Kansas late this
afternoon and early evening. A few models, including the NAM Nest
and NMM show develoment northward into southwest Nebraska this
evening. the latest HRRR and RAP models are also generating
convective QPFs. Still, given the model differences, and some
models indicating dry this evening, confidence is below average on
the location. However, anomalously high atmospheric moisture will
be available, where any thunderstorms which do develop will be
capable of producing rainfall rates above an inch per hour. WPC
has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across southwest
Nebraska tonight. In addition, SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe
storms this evening across southwest Nebraska, with large hail and
damaging winds possible. A few lingering showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the overnight hours. Lows
tonight will remain quite mild for this time of the year with lows
ranging from the lower 60s across the west to the upper 60s
across the northeast.

On Friday into Friday night, the main concern will be the threat
for isolated/scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Friday
afternoon into Friday night.

An upper level trough will begin to lift northeast into the
Northern and Central Plains on Friday. Models agree on scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the day to move northward well
ahead of the approaching cold front. A few of the thunderstorms
could be strong to briefly severe. While brief heavy rainfall is
possible during the day, the potential for any flooding is low.

Going into Friday evening, the cold front will be the main forcing
for showers and thunderstorms. SPC currently has a Slight Risk
north of a line from Oshkosh through Thedford and Butte, while a
Marginal Risk covers the rest of the CWA. Damaging winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats for Friday
with the greatest risk being across the northeast Panhandle and
northwest Nebraska. As the storms progress eastward through the
area, we will also see a threat for heavy rainfall. WPC has a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across extreme north central
Nebraska with a Marginal Risk extending south to a line from
Oshkosh through O'Neill. for these areas, total rainfall amounts
exceeding 0.5 inches are expected, with as much as 1-2 inches
across portions of north central Nebraska possible. The cold front
and associated system will progress east fairly quickly and should
limit how much rainfall occurs. But, given how saturated the area
already is, localized flooding or flash flooding will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Dry with cooler temperatures behind the front on Saturday with a
mostly sunny sky. Highs from the upper 60s to low 70s northwest
Sandhills, to the upper 70s southeast. A breezy northwest wind
through the day. The dry conditions will be short lived for portions
of southwest Nebraska as precipitation chances increase once
again Saturday night. This will be aided by a strong upper jet
developing across western Kansas into eastern Nebraska as the base
of the upper trough swings through the region.

Sunday through Monday will remain dry across the area as upper level
ridging develops. Highs warm to around 80 Monday. An upper trough
will cross the Central Rockies on Monday, and the Northern and
Central Plains Monday night into Tuesday pushing a cold front
through the region. Only a 20 to 30 percent chance across
southwest into central Nebraska.

A closed upper low over Hudson Bay Canada will bring upper level
troughing into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will bring seasonable highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s and a
drier airmass to the region. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50s by
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KLBF terminal
through 02z this evening. Most of the activity will pass off to
the southeast of KLBF with some high dense cloudiness in
association with the thunderstorms. Overnight, expect some low
level wind shear at 2000 FT AGL around 40 KTS. For Friday, expect
mostly clear skies with some scattered clouds 15000 to 20000 FT
AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will be mainly clear over the
next 24 hours. Low level wind shear will be possible overnight
with 45 KTS expected 2000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 /200 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible starting
late this afternoon into this evening across southwest Nebraska.
Isolated thunderstorms will then be possible across the Sandhills
and north central Nebraska late this evening and early tonight as
storms move northeast over time. Isolated severe storms will be
capable of large hail and damaging winds. Localized heavy rain is
possible across portions of southwest Nebraska with slow moving
storms. However, widespread heavy rain is not likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and Friday night across portions of the Sandhills
and north central Nebraska. The greatest risk for severe storms
is northwest of a line from Butte to Thedford to Tryon. Severe
storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Heavy
rain is also possible, mainly across parts of the Sandhills and
north central Nebraska, especially along the Nebraska/South Dakota
border.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night, and again Monday night
and Tuesday. The severe threat is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

While spotter activation is not expected through tonight, any
hail, wind, or rainfall reports are appreciated.

Spotter Activation may be needed Friday.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
825 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S WALLACE             40.73N 101.15W
09/19/2019  M62 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

            PWS STATION

&&

JURGENSEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
832 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

NEZ023-024-035-036-057-059-200230-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
832 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ARTHUR...SOUTHEASTERN
GRANT...NORTHEASTERN KEITH...SOUTHWESTERN HOOKER...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN AND WESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT/830 PM
MDT/...

At 832 PM CDT/732 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Keystone, or 15 miles northeast of Ogallala, moving
north at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paxton, Keystone, Lena, Flatts, Big Lamunyon Flats, Nevens,
Broganville, East Cody Lake, Calora, Big Bald Hill, Bucktail Lake,
Sand Beach Lake, Three Mile Lake, Diamond Bar Lake, Bucktail and
Schnick Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 172 and 199.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 39 and 45.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska near mile marker 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 10136 4119 10162 4185 10150 4174 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 194DEG 34KT 4130 10152

Jurgensen/CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
839 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE IMPERIAL          40.52N 101.62W
09/19/2019  M71 MPH          CHASE              NE   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KIML IMPERIAL AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
844 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

NEZ058-059-069-070-200230-
Chase NE-Hayes NE-Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-
844 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PERKINS...SOUTHEASTERN
KEITH...NORTHEASTERN CHASE...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN
HAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT/830 PM MDT/...

At 844 PM CDT/744 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Wallace, or 19 miles northwest of Hayes Center,
moving northwest at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wallace, Madrid, Elsie and Grainton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 10167 4101 10138 4101 10126 4102 10125
      4079 10099 4054 10125
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 136DEG 17KT 4076 10121

Jurgensen/CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
848 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE KEYSTONE          41.20N 101.48W
09/19/2019  M53 MPH          KEITH              NE   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7246 KEYSTONE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
854 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

NEZ023>025-035-036-057-059-200245-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Thomas NE-Lincoln NE-
Keith NE-
854 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ARTHUR...GRANT...
NORTHEASTERN KEITH...HOOKER...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...MCPHERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

At 854 PM CDT/754 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles north of Arthur to
24 miles west of Tryon to 10 miles north of Sarben. Movement was
north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hyannis, Whitman, Carr Lake, Duluth, Lena, Sand Puddin Lake, Flatts,
Big Lamunyon Flats, Cogill Lake, East Cody Lake, Calora, Green Lake,
Sand Beach Lake, Highway 97 crossing the Dismal River, Three Mile
Lake, Pratt Lake, Diamond Bar Lake, Spring Valley Lake, Bucktail and
Schnick Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 141 and 175.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 128 and 165.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 168 and 203.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 32 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 10129 4176 10083 4118 10119 4152 10142
      4168 10186 4209 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 186DEG 32KT 4172 10177 4159 10142 4131 10123

Jurgensen/CLB