Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Forecast concern for tonight will be the potential for locally
heavy rainfall across portions of southwest Nebraska. Strong warm
air advection occurring at the surface across western and central
Kansas this afternoon, where south winds are gusting to 20kt and
temperatures near 93 degrees. Latest CAMs models indicate a few
clusters of thunderstorms developing in western Kansas late this
afternoon and early evening. A few models, including the NAM Nest
and NMM show develoment northward into southwest Nebraska this
evening. the latest HRRR and RAP models are also generating
convective QPFs. Still, given the model differences, and some
models indicating dry this evening, confidence is below average on
the location. However, anomalously high atmospheric moisture will
be available, where any thunderstorms which do develop will be
capable of producing rainfall rates above an inch per hour. WPC
has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across southwest
Nebraska tonight. In addition, SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe
storms this evening across southwest Nebraska, with large hail and
damaging winds possible. A few lingering showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the overnight hours. Lows
tonight will remain quite mild for this time of the year with lows
ranging from the lower 60s across the west to the upper 60s
across the northeast.

On Friday into Friday night, the main concern will be the threat
for isolated/scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Friday
afternoon into Friday night.

An upper level trough will begin to lift northeast into the
Northern and Central Plains on Friday. Models agree on scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the day to move northward well
ahead of the approaching cold front. A few of the thunderstorms
could be strong to briefly severe. While brief heavy rainfall is
possible during the day, the potential for any flooding is low.

Going into Friday evening, the cold front will be the main forcing
for showers and thunderstorms. SPC currently has a Slight Risk
north of a line from Oshkosh through Thedford and Butte, while a
Marginal Risk covers the rest of the CWA. Damaging winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats for Friday
with the greatest risk being across the northeast Panhandle and
northwest Nebraska. As the storms progress eastward through the
area, we will also see a threat for heavy rainfall. WPC has a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across extreme north central
Nebraska with a Marginal Risk extending south to a line from
Oshkosh through O'Neill. for these areas, total rainfall amounts
exceeding 0.5 inches are expected, with as much as 1-2 inches
across portions of north central Nebraska possible. The cold front
and associated system will progress east fairly quickly and should
limit how much rainfall occurs. But, given how saturated the area
already is, localized flooding or flash flooding will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Dry with cooler temperatures behind the front on Saturday with a
mostly sunny sky. Highs from the upper 60s to low 70s northwest
Sandhills, to the upper 70s southeast. A breezy northwest wind
through the day. The dry conditions will be short lived for portions
of southwest Nebraska as precipitation chances increase once
again Saturday night. This will be aided by a strong upper jet
developing across western Kansas into eastern Nebraska as the base
of the upper trough swings through the region.

Sunday through Monday will remain dry across the area as upper level
ridging develops. Highs warm to around 80 Monday. An upper trough
will cross the Central Rockies on Monday, and the Northern and
Central Plains Monday night into Tuesday pushing a cold front
through the region. Only a 20 to 30 percent chance across
southwest into central Nebraska.

A closed upper low over Hudson Bay Canada will bring upper level
troughing into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will bring seasonable highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s and a
drier airmass to the region. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50s by
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KLBF terminal
through 02z this evening. Most of the activity will pass off to
the southeast of KLBF with some high dense cloudiness in
association with the thunderstorms. Overnight, expect some low
level wind shear at 2000 FT AGL around 40 KTS. For Friday, expect
mostly clear skies with some scattered clouds 15000 to 20000 FT
AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will be mainly clear over the
next 24 hours. Low level wind shear will be possible overnight
with 45 KTS expected 2000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 /200 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible starting
late this afternoon into this evening across southwest Nebraska.
Isolated thunderstorms will then be possible across the Sandhills
and north central Nebraska late this evening and early tonight as
storms move northeast over time. Isolated severe storms will be
capable of large hail and damaging winds. Localized heavy rain is
possible across portions of southwest Nebraska with slow moving
storms. However, widespread heavy rain is not likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and Friday night across portions of the Sandhills
and north central Nebraska. The greatest risk for severe storms
is northwest of a line from Butte to Thedford to Tryon. Severe
storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Heavy
rain is also possible, mainly across parts of the Sandhills and
north central Nebraska, especially along the Nebraska/South Dakota
border.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night, and again Monday night
and Tuesday. The severe threat is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

While spotter activation is not expected through tonight, any
hail, wind, or rainfall reports are appreciated.

Spotter Activation may be needed Friday.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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