Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected again
this afternoon, which is the main concern in the short term forecast
period. Two main concerns with these thunderstorms will be the
severe thunderstorm threat and excessive rainfall threat.
Convection is expected to develop in two portions. Southwest
Nebraska back into northeastern Colorado look to be the focus for
initial storm development this afternoon around 3 to 4 pm CDT.
Thunderstorms will then increase in coverage heading into late
afternoon and evening.

Current thinking is the thunderstorms that develop across
southwest Nebraska should be mainly supercell thunderstorms with
the main hazards being hail, damaging winds, heavy rain and even
an isolated tornado could be possible. Supercells are expected to
track northeastward becoming more scattered to widespread, then a
second line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front in
more of a linear setup of thunderstorms and move across the
Sandhills and north central Nebraska, however confidence is low in
thunderstorms developing across southwest Nebraska with the
second area of convection.

The second focus is on the heavy rain potential. As we saw with
storms last night, these storms produced rainfall rates around 1
inch per hour or greater in some locations. Forecaster confidence
is moderate that we will see a similar situation again with
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening. PWAT values
greater than 1 inch with the 12z LBF sounding recording a PWAT of
1.31 inches. There is also the potential for some training of
thunderstorms across the area, mainly across portions of north
central Nebraska as we head into the evening hours. The second
area of convection is also expected to be a heavy rain producer,
which is why a flood watch has been issued for portions of north
central Nebraska. This area received several inches of rainfall
with last nights storms, with the saturated ground from recent
rainfalls, a decision was made to expand the Flood Watch issued
last night farther south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Cooler temperatures on Friday with highs in the upper 60s and
70s. Temperatures will warm this weekend with highs in the 80s.
This is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will
remain warm through early next week. Next chance of thunderstorms
will come next Wed. along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Main aviation story is the threat of severe storms that are
capable of large hail, gusty erratic wind and very heavy rainfall.
The latest CAMs develop two main area of convection this afternoon
and evening. Storms are shown to develop first across southwest
Nebraska between 2-4 PM MDT. These storms will be severe with
large hail and isolated tornadoes possible. Additional storms are
expected across the panhandle between 3-5 PM MDT. Eventually, all
the storms will congeal into a complex and possibly impact the
entire outlook area late evening/overnight with heavy rainfall and
gusty wind.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
Thursday morning for NEZ005>010-025>027-038-094.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
349 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 /249 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A strong cold front will serve as a focus for strong and severe
thunderstorm development this evening and tonight across western
and north central Nebraska. Storms are expected to first develop
across southwest Nebraska and the panhandle, possibly as early as
3 pm MDT. These discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail,
damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. By mid evening,
storm coverage is expected to increase, especially across the
panhandle with strong winds and large hail being the primary
threats.  The storms will congeal into a convective system that
will push east across the entire outlook area. Strong wind, hail
and flooding rainfall will be primary threats late this evening
and overnight.

Flooding concerns will increase late this evening and overnight,
especially across north central Nebraska where heavy rainfall was
observed yesterday. A flash flood watch is in effect for portions
of north central Nebraska through Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across southwest
Nebraska and portions of the Panhandle after 2 pm MDT today.
Spotter activation may be needed elsewhere across western and
north central Nebraska after 4 pm CDT. All spotters are encouraged
to report tornadoes, funnel clouds, hail, strong winds, flooding
rainfall and any damage to the National Weather Service in North
Platte.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ004-112230-
Sheridan NE-
346 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 345 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Hay Springs, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Hay Springs, Clinton, Metcalf State Wildlife Management
Area, Intersection of Beaver Creek Road and White Clay Creek Road,
Intersection of Highway 87 and Larabee Road, Mount Maria, Highway 250
crossing the Niobrara River, Intersection of Highway 87 and Antelope
Road and Walgren Lake State Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 76 and 103.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 36 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4299 10267 4290 10218 4246 10250 4254 10277
      4261 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 209DEG 28KT 4258 10264

JWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
514 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HAIL             RUSHVILLE               42.71N 102.47W
09/11/2019  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THORNE

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