Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

The main concern this forecast period is the thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. This is a bit of a
challenge as the stratus cloud deck from this morning stuck around
a little longer than anticipated, and has still stuck around
southern portions of north central Nebraska. Areas stuck under the
clouds have not warmed up as much as forecast, which may hinder
development of thunderstorms in this area.

Another thing to consider is early convection across the northwest
Sandhills this morning, the original thought was the convection
would move out of the area by mid morning, this has not been the
case and convection has remained over the northwest Sandhills longer
than expected which could have an effect on thunderstorms this
afternoon.

A warm front is draped across the Sandhills from west to
east which will become the focus for most of the thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. A very moist airmass is in
place with dewpoints in the 60s across much of the area, along
with a southeast surface wind, CAPE values around 3000 j/kg or
greater along with deep layer shear with 0 to 3km of 250 or more
across the northern Sandhills. This area is the most favorable
area to see severe thunderstorms including the possibility of a
tornado.

Along with the severe potential there is the possibility of heavy
rainfall with these thunderstorms with pwat values over an inch.
The greatest potential for excessive rainfall will be across the
northern Sandhills, mainly north of highway 2.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms once again
as an upper level TROF moves across the area Wednesday afternoon.
The best area for severe weather will be across the Sandhills,
where the instability will be the greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper
60s to 70s. Temperatures will warm back up into the 80s this
weekend through early next week. Temperatures will be around 5 to
10 degrees above normal. Rain chances will be minimal from
Thursday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Latest radar imagery shows numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the northeast Panhandle and north central Nebraska.
Thunderstorms will impact the KVTN terminal this evening and into
the overnight hours. Visibility will fall as low as 3sm and wind
gusts up to 50 kts will be possible. There is also a threat for
some hail with any of the thunderstorms this afternoon across
northern Nebraska. After around 07z, thunderstorms will begin to
diminish across northern Nebraska, however, will keep mention of
VCSH through 18z. For KLBF, VFR conditions are expected through
the next 24 hours. Have removed all mention of thunderstorms from
KLBF through the night. Low level wind shear will be a threat for
KLBF overnight with southerly winds of 40 to 45 kts 2000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Thorne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
134 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-111845-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
134 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 /1234 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms will overspread the Sandhills this evening and
tonight as a warm front drifts north. Some storms will likely be
severe, with the greatest potential along and north of Highway 2.
South of Highway 2, the threat for severe storms will decrease
heading south toward Interstate 80. The primary threats are large
hail and damaging winds along with heavy rain. A tornado is
possible as well, mainly along the warm front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Another round of thunderstorms will move through western and
north central Nebraska Wednesday evening and night. Some storms
may be severe, with the main threats being large hail, damaging
winds, and torrential rainfall. At this time, the main severe
threat is across the entire outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
evening, mainly for areas along and north of Highway 2. Reports of
tornadoes, funnel clouds, large hail, severe winds, and flooding
are appreciated. Spotter activation is possible Wednesday for
areas generally east of the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

CLB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
845 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

NEZ023-024-094-110315-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Western Cherry NE-
845 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
MDT...

At 845 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 17 miles southwest of Medicine Lake to 8 miles
north of Hyannis. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 97 crossing the North Loup River, Speckel Meir Lake, Highway
61 crossing the Snake River, Round Lake, Hire, Whitman Road crossing
the North Branch of the Middle Loup River, Highway 97 crossing Big
Creek, Sevenmile Hill and Intersection of Highway 61 and Survey
Valley Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 163 and 204.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 89 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for north central
and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4254 10094 4209 10113 4204 10185 4264 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 265DEG 38KT 4258 10171 4212 10178

CDC