Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

The primary forecast challenge through Friday night deals with
thunderstorms and severe potential. A surface boundary / cool front
bisecting the Sandhills should drop south tonight, which will be the
focus for the storms. The atmosphere is primed for large hail,
strong winds, and torrential rainfall.

This evening and tonight... Convective initiation is underway across
northwest Nebraska (Sheridan Co) as of 20z. A few thundershowers are
also pulsing up and down along the differential heating boundary,
roughly aligned with I-80, caused by a stubborn stratus deck over
far SW Neb. Expect an increase in activity through the evening in
the panhandle as CIN continues to erode and upper air support
arrives in the form of an H5-7 shortwave. Severe indices suggest the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, very heavy rain, and
possibly a tornado. The 19z LBF RAOB shows a cap remaining around
H7, while SPC mesoanalysis suggests it's quickly eroding (also shown
by the showers). Instability is ample (MUCAPE 2000-3000j/kg) due to
mid/upper 60s dew points and lifted index around -5. CAPE in the -10
to -30C hail growth zone is also rather fat. Deep layer shear has
increased to around 40 kts in western Neb and around 30 kts central
Neb, which is sufficient for organized and sustained convection.
Short-term model guidance is in agreement with bringing the LLJ nose
right into southwest Neb, which should increase low level shear.
Current southeast surface winds are creating a veering profile and
are not forecast to change much tonight. Thinking the greatest hail
and tornado threat will be west of Hwy 61, where convective mode is
more likely to be supercellular. Around 06z, storms should grow more
upscale around the Hwy 83 corridor as they become more elevated and
the wind profile becomes more unidirectional. Forecast soundings
maintain plenty of DCAPE (1000+ j/kg) while the storms become
clusters or a QLCS, adding to the damaging wind threat. Included
heavy rain wording to the entire CWA as PWATs are well above climo,
moisture transport vectors indicate a large fetch of moisture
streaming up the Plains, and previous nights' rainfall totals have
exceeded one inch. The greatest thunder coverage, and subsequent
severe threat, should be out of the CWA by 12z. Generally followed a
blend of the HRRR and NAMnest for storm timing.

Friday and Friday night... Continued thunder mention as the region
sits in easterly/upslope flow in the post fropa environment.
Sufficient instability remains with the help of cooler temps
aloft/steep lapse rates and continued moisture advection in the low
levels. Deep layer shear is also supportive of severe potential.
Concerns include effects from tonight's convection, location of
outflow boundaries, the lack of an LLJ, and overall coverage (CAMs
not as bullish). Cooled max temps slightly to account for mixed
cloudiness, northeast flow at H85, and potential storms. Forecast
highs range from upper 70s along the Pine Ridge to mid 80s far
southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

The synoptic pattern into early next week suggests continued
periodic thunderstorm chances and seasonable temperatures for
western Nebraska. The area sits on the periphery of the Western US
trough and southern Plains high, a favored area for storm tracks and
in an environment supportive of strong convection. Various surface
boundaries (quasi-stationary or warm front Sunday and cool front
Tuesday) will add forcing and lift. Temperature-wise, highs should
stick to the lower 80s through the weekend, then warm early next
week under WAA and southerly flow at H85.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Two thunderstorm complexes are expected overnight across
southwest Nebraska and northern Nebraska. The storm activity could
span most to nearly all of western and north central Nebraska.
Storm activity is expected to exit swrn and ncntl Nebraska 12z-14z
Friday morning. VFR is expected thereafter through 22z Friday
afternoon.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage is expected Friday
evening with storms developing in the west and moving east in the
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-060345-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 /943 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will blossom late this
evening across southwestern Nebraska and parts of the Sandhills.
These storms will then continue through late tonight. Severe
storms will be possible with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall all threats.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
northwestern Nebraska and northern Nebraska late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue this weekend and into next
week. A marginal risk of severe weather exists across portions of
the outlook area both Friday and Saturday, with hail, wind, and
heavy rain being the main threats. Severe weather potential for
Sunday and beyond is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening,
especially west of Highway 83. Reports of hail, wind, and
rainfall reports are appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 SSW EUSTIS            40.56N 100.09W
07/05/2019                   FRONTIER           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING REPORTED VIA SPOTTERNETWORK.ORG. VERY HEAVY RAIN
            CAUSING LOW LYING AREAS TO FLOOD. 2 INCHES OF RAIN LAST
            HOUR.

&&

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

NEZ035-036-057-050615-
Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Keith NE-
1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR...CENTRAL
KEITH AND SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT/1215 AM
MDT/...

At 1242 AM CDT/1142 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Kingsley Dam, or near Ogallala, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Lemoyne, Keystone, Roscoe, Kingsley Dam, Broganville and
Lake View Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 82 and 113.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 132 and 138.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 123 and 133.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT/400 AM
MDT/ for southwestern and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4102 10168 4117 10191 4156 10162 4139 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 216DEG 30KT 4120 10171

Gomez

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
138 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE NORTH PLATTE      41.19N 100.75W
07/05/2019  M48 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7235 NORTH PLATTE 4N.

&&