Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS North Platte, NE

817 
WGUS73 KLBF 051053
FFSLBF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
453 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019

NEC031-161-051103-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190705T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherry NE-Sheridan NE-
453 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY AND CENTRAL
SHERIDAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4277 10278 4278 10222 4262 10159 4249 10150
      4226 10149 4239 10275 4254 10278

$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

The primary forecast challenge through Friday night deals with
thunderstorms and severe potential. A surface boundary / cool front
bisecting the Sandhills should drop south tonight, which will be the
focus for the storms. The atmosphere is primed for large hail,
strong winds, and torrential rainfall.

This evening and tonight... Convective initiation is underway across
northwest Nebraska (Sheridan Co) as of 20z. A few thundershowers are
also pulsing up and down along the differential heating boundary,
roughly aligned with I-80, caused by a stubborn stratus deck over
far SW Neb. Expect an increase in activity through the evening in
the panhandle as CIN continues to erode and upper air support
arrives in the form of an H5-7 shortwave. Severe indices suggest the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, very heavy rain, and
possibly a tornado. The 19z LBF RAOB shows a cap remaining around
H7, while SPC mesoanalysis suggests it's quickly eroding (also shown
by the showers). Instability is ample (MUCAPE 2000-3000j/kg) due to
mid/upper 60s dew points and lifted index around -5. CAPE in the -10
to -30C hail growth zone is also rather fat. Deep layer shear has
increased to around 40 kts in western Neb and around 30 kts central
Neb, which is sufficient for organized and sustained convection.
Short-term model guidance is in agreement with bringing the LLJ nose
right into southwest Neb, which should increase low level shear.
Current southeast surface winds are creating a veering profile and
are not forecast to change much tonight. Thinking the greatest hail
and tornado threat will be west of Hwy 61, where convective mode is
more likely to be supercellular. Around 06z, storms should grow more
upscale around the Hwy 83 corridor as they become more elevated and
the wind profile becomes more unidirectional. Forecast soundings
maintain plenty of DCAPE (1000+ j/kg) while the storms become
clusters or a QLCS, adding to the damaging wind threat. Included
heavy rain wording to the entire CWA as PWATs are well above climo,
moisture transport vectors indicate a large fetch of moisture
streaming up the Plains, and previous nights' rainfall totals have
exceeded one inch. The greatest thunder coverage, and subsequent
severe threat, should be out of the CWA by 12z. Generally followed a
blend of the HRRR and NAMnest for storm timing.

Friday and Friday night... Continued thunder mention as the region
sits in easterly/upslope flow in the post fropa environment.
Sufficient instability remains with the help of cooler temps
aloft/steep lapse rates and continued moisture advection in the low
levels. Deep layer shear is also supportive of severe potential.
Concerns include effects from tonight's convection, location of
outflow boundaries, the lack of an LLJ, and overall coverage (CAMs
not as bullish). Cooled max temps slightly to account for mixed
cloudiness, northeast flow at H85, and potential storms. Forecast
highs range from upper 70s along the Pine Ridge to mid 80s far
southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

The synoptic pattern into early next week suggests continued
periodic thunderstorm chances and seasonable temperatures for
western Nebraska. The area sits on the periphery of the Western US
trough and southern Plains high, a favored area for storm tracks and
in an environment supportive of strong convection. Various surface
boundaries (quasi-stationary or warm front Sunday and cool front
Tuesday) will add forcing and lift. Temperature-wise, highs should
stick to the lower 80s through the weekend, then warm early next
week under WAA and southerly flow at H85.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Two thunderstorm complexes are expected overnight across
southwest Nebraska and northern Nebraska. The storm activity could
span most to nearly all of western and north central Nebraska.
Storm activity is expected to exit swrn and ncntl Nebraska 12z-14z
Friday morning. VFR is expected thereafter through 22z Friday
afternoon.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage is expected Friday
evening with storms developing in the west and moving east in the
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-060345-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 /943 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will blossom late this
evening across southwestern Nebraska and parts of the Sandhills.
These storms will then continue through late tonight. Severe
storms will be possible with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall all threats.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
northwestern Nebraska and northern Nebraska late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue this weekend and into next
week. A marginal risk of severe weather exists across portions of
the outlook area both Friday and Saturday, with hail, wind, and
heavy rain being the main threats. Severe weather potential for
Sunday and beyond is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening,
especially west of Highway 83. Reports of hail, wind, and
rainfall reports are appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
138 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE NORTH PLATTE      41.19N 100.75W
07/05/2019  M48 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7235 NORTH PLATTE 4N.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
149 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW SUTHERLAND         41.17N 101.14W
07/05/2019  M58 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

            PWS STATION KNESUTHE2

&&

JURGENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
151 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 WNW MAXWELL           41.11N 100.63W
07/05/2019  M53 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KLBF NORTH PLATTE AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
108 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019

NEZ004-094-050745-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
108 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM MDT...

At 108 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gordon, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Clinton, Hoover Lake, Lone Butte, Irwin, Highway
27 crossing the Niobrara River, Shell Lake State Wildlife Management
Area, Rock Hill and Intersection of Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 87 and 116.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 47 and 48.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4300 10189 4258 10210 4271 10256 4300 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 204DEG 40KT 4274 10226

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
226 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

NEZ005-008-009-025>027-037-038-059-050815-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Custer NE-Rock NE-Thomas NE-
Blaine NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
226 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...
SOUTHWESTERN ROCK...LOUP...SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...EASTERN LINCOLN...
EASTERN LOGAN...CUSTER...BLAINE AND SOUTHERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

At 225 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Thedford to 10 miles south of
Dunning to 13 miles northeast of Wellfleet. Movement was northeast at
45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Taylor, Brewster, Arnold, Callaway, Brady, Merna, Oconto,
Anselmo, Dunning, Halsey, Victoria Springs State Recreation Area,
Lillian, Milburn, Highway 83 crossing The Dismal River, Milburn
Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area, Fox Bayou, Almeria
Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Walworth and Lodi.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 122 and 148.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 216 and 283.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 244 and 273.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 193 and 208.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 131 and 144.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central, southwestern, north central and west central Nebraska. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4076 10062 4165 10018 4182 10080 4221 9995
      4200 9924 4105 9973 4105 10022 4089 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 242DEG 47KT 4183 10064 4168 10011 4086 10053

Gomez

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
231 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW CALLAWAY           41.21N 100.03W
07/05/2019  M64 MPH          CUSTER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

ET