Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
227 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.NEAR TERM /Through Saturday/...
Weak inverted upper trough remains over forecast area between
ridges further east and west. Warm, moist environment, with 2.0"
precip water values, supporting another round of scattered to
numerous showers and t-storms across the forecast area, with
greatest coverage likely interior areas. Conditions favorable for
strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Low temperatures Tonight
similar to last night with lower-mid 70s across forecast area.

For Saturday, upper-level inverted trough shifts a bit westward.
Environment favors sea breezes moving well inland and converging
along spine of FL peninsula where greatest coverage of afternoon
showers/t-storms is expected. Maybe slightly less coverage
compared to Today with upper trough further west. Latest
consensus guidance supports current high temperature forecast
in the mid 90s well inland, around 90 coast.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Night through Sunday Night/...
Pattern changes little this period, with scattered showers/t-storms
expected again Sunday afternoon into evening. High temperatures
will be in the lower-mid 90s.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Pattern changes across the country this period, with strong upper
ridge over western U.S. and trough over eastern U.S. Still
expecting daily round of afternoon/evening showers/t-storms
across forecast area with sea breezes along with surface trough
across se GA. A little stronger flow aloft and colder mid-level
temperatures could support more intense t-storms at times. With
weak upper trough over forecast area, temperatures should be near
normal for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Convection is currently firing along the Atlantic sea
breeze front near and just east of I-95. Additional storms are
developing along an old outflow boundary from Mayport-Gainesville-
Cedar Key and yet a third boundary from Brunswick-Waycross-Perry.
With all of these boundaries and a slow westward movement expect
storms to be in the VCNTY at North Florida Regional Airport (KSGJ)
and McKinnon Airport (KSSI) through 20 utc and over the KCRG,
KJAX, KVQQ and KGNV fields through 20-22 utc. In general, seeing
bases on the CU/TCU/CB of 4-6 KFT with stratus Fractus at 2.5-4
kft below the bases. Expect the widespread convection over the
Jacksonville Metro/Gainesville areas to diminish after 22 utc as
the air mass stabilizes and is worked over with just a few storms
still about to keep them in the VCNTY there. After 02-03 utc, will
see mainly convective debris over the region through the morning
hours with some light mist/fog around 4 SM between 09-12 utc at
KVQQ and KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will be east of the waters through early
next week, maintaining southerly winds at 10-15 knots with 2-4 ft
seas.

Rip Currents: SE GA: low risk through Saturday
              NE FL: moderate risk through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  74  94 /  50  30  10  30
SSI  77  89  78  92 /  20  20  10  30
JAX  75  94  75  94 /  40  40  20  30
SGJ  75  91  75  91 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  73  93  74  93 /  40  50  20  30
OCF  73  93  74  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Wolf/Enyedi/Peterson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

FLZ122-222-191945-
Southern Columbia FL-Northern Columbia FL-
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

* At 305 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Lake City, moving east at 10
  mph.

* Nickel size hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due
  to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lake City, Watertown and Five Points.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 8248 3008 8270 3018 8278 3028 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 250DEG 10KT 3017 8266

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

FLZ030-031-136-191930-
Eastern Alachua FL-Union FL-Bradford FL-
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALACHUA...WESTERN
BRADFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* At 306 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Palestine Community to near Alachua. These storms were nearly
  stationary.

* Nickel size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and minor flooding due
  to heavy rainfall is possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Worthington Spring, Worthington Springs, Upland Pines, Groves, La
  Crosse and Dukes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 8239 2985 8236 2984 8250 3004 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 351DEG 1KT 3005 8242 2986 8247

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
307 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSE KINGSLAND         30.75N 81.65W
07/19/2019  M42 MPH          Camden             GA   MESONET

            AT THE CAMDEN WELCOME CENTER ON I-95

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             3 SW JACKSONVILLE INTL  30.46N 81.74W
07/19/2019  E0.88 INCH       Duval              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MRUSSELL

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