Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
227 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.NEAR TERM /Through Saturday/...
Weak inverted upper trough remains over forecast area between
ridges further east and west. Warm, moist environment, with 2.0"
precip water values, supporting another round of scattered to
numerous showers and t-storms across the forecast area, with
greatest coverage likely interior areas. Conditions favorable for
strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Low temperatures Tonight
similar to last night with lower-mid 70s across forecast area.

For Saturday, upper-level inverted trough shifts a bit westward.
Environment favors sea breezes moving well inland and converging
along spine of FL peninsula where greatest coverage of afternoon
showers/t-storms is expected. Maybe slightly less coverage
compared to Today with upper trough further west. Latest
consensus guidance supports current high temperature forecast
in the mid 90s well inland, around 90 coast.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Night through Sunday Night/...
Pattern changes little this period, with scattered showers/t-storms
expected again Sunday afternoon into evening. High temperatures
will be in the lower-mid 90s.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Pattern changes across the country this period, with strong upper
ridge over western U.S. and trough over eastern U.S. Still
expecting daily round of afternoon/evening showers/t-storms
across forecast area with sea breezes along with surface trough
across se GA. A little stronger flow aloft and colder mid-level
temperatures could support more intense t-storms at times. With
weak upper trough over forecast area, temperatures should be near
normal for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Convection is currently firing along the Atlantic sea
breeze front near and just east of I-95. Additional storms are
developing along an old outflow boundary from Mayport-Gainesville-
Cedar Key and yet a third boundary from Brunswick-Waycross-Perry.
With all of these boundaries and a slow westward movement expect
storms to be in the VCNTY at North Florida Regional Airport (KSGJ)
and McKinnon Airport (KSSI) through 20 utc and over the KCRG,
KJAX, KVQQ and KGNV fields through 20-22 utc. In general, seeing
bases on the CU/TCU/CB of 4-6 KFT with stratus Fractus at 2.5-4
kft below the bases. Expect the widespread convection over the
Jacksonville Metro/Gainesville areas to diminish after 22 utc as
the air mass stabilizes and is worked over with just a few storms
still about to keep them in the VCNTY there. After 02-03 utc, will
see mainly convective debris over the region through the morning
hours with some light mist/fog around 4 SM between 09-12 utc at
KVQQ and KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will be east of the waters through early
next week, maintaining southerly winds at 10-15 knots with 2-4 ft
seas.

Rip Currents: SE GA: low risk through Saturday
              NE FL: moderate risk through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  74  94 /  50  30  10  30
SSI  77  89  78  92 /  20  20  10  30
JAX  75  94  75  94 /  40  40  20  30
SGJ  75  91  75  91 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  73  93  74  93 /  40  50  20  30
OCF  73  93  74  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Wolf/Enyedi/Peterson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
258 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

FLZ024-GAZ165-264-191930-
Inland Nassau FL-Northeastern Charlton GA-Inland Camden GA-
258 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...
SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND EASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* At 258 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Hilliard, moving west at 30
  mph.

* Nickel size hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due
  to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hilliard and Kings Ferry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8197 3079 8200 3078 8198 3082 8200
      3089 8183 3066 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 100DEG 24KT 3073 8188

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
259 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             3 WNW GAINESVILLE       29.69N 82.39W
07/19/2019  M0.25 INCH       Alachua            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN NW GAINESVILLE

&&

MRUSSELL