Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
944 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.UPDATE...Morning fog and low clouds gradually lifting this
morning. Weak upper disturbance now spreading showers from the ne
Gulf into the eastern Fl panhandle. This activity will spread ne
across the Suwannee Valley into se Ga later this morning and
afternoon. An isolated strong to severe storm may be possible by late
this afternoon over se Ga as wind shear and instability increase.
A more widespread severe weather outbreak(damaging winds...hail...
and isolated tornadoes possible) is expected to occur over se Ga
this evening between 00z-05z as a stronger trough and associated cold
front develop a squall line to the nw of the area. The storms
will push se into ne Fl around midnight with weakening expected
overnight as a cold front pushes through by early Monday morning
bringing cooler and breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR conditions due to low ceilings/fog will
gradually improve to MVFR around 16z this morning and then VFR
after 18z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may affect SSI this
afternoon...with strong storms likely affecting SSI 00z-06z this
evening. Showers and storms will move se across the ne Fl TAF
sites between 05z-12z tonight as they gradually weaken. Winds will
increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon with a windshift to the nw
after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...Southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots this
afternoon as a strong cold front pushes into the se U.S. The cold
front will increase winds to at least Caution levels this evening
with marginal Small Craft Advisory levels possible especially
over the Georgia waters tonight. Seas offshore will build to 3-5
feet overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
strong cold front as it moves through the Georgia waters after
midnight. The shower activity should weaken as it crosses the
northeast Florida waters late tonight and Monday morning. Winds
will shift to north- northwesterly in the wake of the front by
sunrise over the Georgia waters and Monday morning for the
northeast Florida waters. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
will exit the northeast Florida waters by early afternoon.

Rip Currents: Low risk will continue through at least Tuesday as
offshore winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  51  63  43 /  40  70  20  10
SSI  75  60  65  47 /  20  60  20  10
JAX  81  64  70  48 /  20  50  30  10
SGJ  81  65  70  52 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  83  65  72  48 /  10  30  30  10
OCF  83  65  75  51 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Zibura/Kennedy/