Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Warnings in 2019

Tornado Warning 56, NWS Jackson, MS

April 18, 2019Leake County, Neshoba County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this tornado warning at Apr 18, 2019, 3:50 PM CDT for Leake County, Neshoba County, Mississippi. It was in force for 55 min. 25 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 18, 2019, 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC)
Expired: Apr 18, 2019, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 0.75 in

Counties Leake County, MS, Neshoba County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 18, 4:04 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Ene Sebastopol, MS	TREES DOWN IN THE KITCHENER COMMUNITY.
Apr 18, 4:04 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Dixon, MS	SEVERAL TREES DOWN AT DIXON ON CR 339 AND CR 129.
Apr 18, 4:06 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Ne Walnut Grove, MS	MULTIPLE TREES DOWN, MINOR ROOF DAMAGE WITH ROOF LEAKAGE.
Apr 18, 4:07 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Sw Rosebud, MS	TREES DOWN, POSSIBLE TORNADO ON GUNTER RD.
Apr 18, 4:13 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Nne Standing Pine, MS	HOUSE HEAVILY DAMAGED, TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE NOTED ON RADAR AT THE TIME OF REPORT.
Apr 18, 4:14 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Sw Deemer, MS	* 1 FATAL * ONE FATALITY OCCURRED AS A TREE FELL ON A CAR. THIS OCCURRED ON HIGHWAY 15S BETWEEN HIGHWAY 485 AND COUNTY ROAD 432. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.
Apr 18, 4:19 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Ene Freetrade, MS	THIS TORNADO BEGAN ALONG LAUREL HILL RD AND TRACKED ROUGHLY EAST ALONG AND MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF MADDEN RD. THE TORNADO CROSSED RISHER RD AND DISSIPATED JUST EAST OF THAT LOCATION. MANY TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG WITH SEVERAL POWER LINES AND POLES
Apr 18, 4:20 PM CDT	TORNADO	2 Nw Madden, MS	CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 2 NW MADDEN. THIS TORNADO BEGAN ALONG RISHER RD AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST CROSSING JOLLY RD TO JUST PAST HIGHWAY 488 AND TURTLENECK RD. MANY TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG MADDEN RD ALONG WITH SOME
Apr 18, 4:20 PM CDT	TORNADO	2 Nw Madden, MS	THIS TORNADO BEGAN ALONG RISHER RD AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST CROSSING JOLLY RD TO JUST PAST HIGHWAY 488 AND TURTLENECK RD. MANY TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG MADDEN RD ALONG WITH SOME POWER LINES DOWN. MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 100
Apr 18, 4:23 PM CDT	TORNADO	2 Nnw Laurel Hill, MS	THIS BRIEF TORNADO BEGAN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 427 AND JUST NORTH OF SISTRUNK LANE. THE TORNADO CROSSED HIGHWAY 427 WHERE IT SNAPPED AND UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES. THE TORNADO ENDED JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 427 NEAR LUNELUAH CREEK, UPROOTING SEVERAL TREES ALONG ITS PA
Apr 18, 4:23 PM CDT	TORNADO	3 Nne House, MS	THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT COUNTY ROAD 717 BREAKING SMALL TO LARGE SOFTWOOD AND HARDWOOD TREE LIMBS. AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST TO COUNTY ROAD 450 IT SNAPPED AND UPROOTED SEVERAL HARDWOOD TREES; IN ADDITION TO PEELING PORTIONS OF A TIN ROOF OFF A BARN. IT CONTINUE
Apr 18, 4:25 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Ssw Laurel Hill, MS	CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 1 SSW LAUREL HILL. THIS BRIEF TORNADO BEGAN JUST INSIDE LEAKE COUNTY WHERE HIGHWAY 488 INTERSECTS THE COUNTY LINE AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST WHERE IT CROSSED CR 123 BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE BETTER TREE DAMAGE WAS ALONG
Apr 18, 4:25 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Ssw Laurel Hill, MS	THIS BRIEF TORNADO BEGAN JUST INSIDE LEAKE COUNTY WHERE HIGHWAY 488 INTERSECTS THE COUNTY LINE AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST WHERE IT CROSSED CR 123 BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE BETTER TREE DAMAGE WAS ALONG HIGHWAY 488. MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 95 MPH AND RATE
Apr 18, 4:26 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Nnw Edinburg, MS	SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED ALONG MARS HILL RD.
Apr 18, 4:30 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Nw Hope, MS	CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 1 NW HOPE. THIS BRIEF TORNADO BEGAN JUST TO THE WEST OF CR 151 AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST IN THE HOPE COMMUNITY AND DISSIPATED AFTER IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 488. ONE HOME SUSTAINED MODERATE SHINGLE AND ROOF DAMAGE ALONG CR
Apr 18, 4:30 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Nw Hope, MS	THIS BRIEF TORNADO BEGAN JUST TO THE WEST OF CR 151 AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST IN THE HOPE COMMUNITY AND DISSIPATED AFTER IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 488. ONE HOME SUSTAINED MODERATE SHINGLE AND ROOF DAMAGE ALONG CR 151. THE TORNADO APPEARED TO PEAK AS IT CROSSED C
Apr 18, 4:30 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Nw Hope, MS	THIS BRIEF TORNADO BEGAN JUST TO THE WEST OF CR 151 AND TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF EAST IN THE HOPE COMMUNITY AND DISSIPATED AFTER IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 488. ONE HOME SUSTAINED MODERATE SHINGLE AND ROOF DAMAGE ALONG CR 151. THE TORNADO APPEARED TO PEAK AS IT CROSSED C
Apr 18, 4:34 PM CDT	TORNADO	4 N Pearl River, MS	THIS TORNADO BEGAN OVER A MARSHY AREA JUST SOUTH OF HOOPER MILL CREEK RD WHERE SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES WERE SNAPPED. IT THEN MOVED NORTHEAST CROSSING COUNTY ROADS 165 AND 820 WHERE SEVERAL SOFTWOOD TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO TOOK ON A SLIGHT EASTWARD
Apr 18, 4:37 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Sw Burnside, MS	DAMAGE IN SEVERAL AREAS, TREES DOWN ON HOUSES. LOTS OF DAMAGE PER EM.
Apr 18, 4:40 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Ene Deemer, MS	THIS EF-1 TORNADO BEGAN IN A WOODED AREA ABOUT A HALF MILE EAST OF DEEMER ROAD AND TRACKED NORTHEAST ABOUT 3 MILES. THE TORNADO MOVED ACROSS HOLLAND AVE KNOCKING DOWN NUMEROUS TREES IN THE AIRPARK SUBDIVISION. NUMEROUS TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED AND SNAPPED ACROSS
Apr 18, 4:40 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 N Deemer, MS	THIS EF1 TORNADO STARTED NEAR HOSPITAL ROAD WEST AND TRACKED NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF PHILADELPHIA. THE TORNADO ENDED JUST NORTH OF EAST MAIN STREET IN EAST PHILADELPHIA. ALONG THE PATH, NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED AND NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AN
Apr 18, 4:41 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 E Philadelphia, MS	BUILDING COLLAPSE PARTIALLY BURYING CARS.
Apr 18, 4:41 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Philadelphia, MS	TREES DOWN ALONG POPLAR, PECAN, AND EAST MAIN STREET, DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES IN PHILADELPHIA.
Apr 18, 4:41 PM CDT	TORNADO	1 Ese Philadelphia, MS	AN OUTER WALL COLLAPSED AT NESHOBA URGENT CARE IN THE EASTGATE SHOPPING CENTER ON EAST MAIN STREET, TRAFFIC SIGNALS WERE RIPPED FROM WIRES, CANOPIES TORN AWAY AND LOTS AND LOTS OF TREES WERE DOWN AND BLOCKING ROADWAYS. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED TH
Apr 18, 4:46 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Stallo, MS	SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HWY 15 JUST SOUTH OF THE WINSTON-NESHOBA COUNTY LINE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 14 storm reports to this tornado warning; the first came 29 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 18, 1:41 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1176 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 246 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

992 
WFUS54 KJAN 182050
TORJAN
MSC079-099-182145-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0056.190418T2050Z-190418T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
350 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Leake County in central Mississippi...
  Neshoba County in east central Mississippi...

* Until 445 PM CDT.
    
* At 349 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Harperville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Madden and Dowdville around 415 PM CDT.
  Dixon around 420 PM CDT.
  Edinburg around 425 PM CDT.
  Philadelphia and Pearl River around 430 PM CDT.
  Burnside around 440 PM CDT.
  Stallo around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tucker, Standing Pine and Walnut Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8954 3270 8944 3293 8972 3293 8892
      3258 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 223DEG 33KT 3251 8952 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DB

4 follow-up statements

692 
WWUS54 KJAN 182108
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
408 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

MSC079-099-182145-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190418T2145Z/
Leake MS-Neshoba MS-
408 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
LEAKE AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...
    
At 408 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Madden, or 8 miles southeast of Carthage, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Madden around 415 PM CDT.
  Dowdville around 420 PM CDT.
  Edinburg and Dixon around 425 PM CDT.
  Pearl River around 435 PM CDT.
  Philadelphia around 440 PM CDT.
  Burnside and Stallo around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tucker, Standing Pine and Walnut Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8955 3289 8966 3293 8966 3293 8892
      3258 8892 3258 8936 3261 8952 3270 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 234DEG 27KT 3266 8942 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DB

671 
WWUS54 KJAN 182115 CCA
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
415 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

MSC079-099-182145-
/O.COR.KJAN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190418T2145Z/
Leake MS-Neshoba MS-
415 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
LEAKE AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...
        
At 415 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Madden, or 7
miles southeast of Carthage, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Madden around 420 PM CDT.
  Edinburg and Dowdville around 425 PM CDT.
  Pearl River and Dixon around 435 PM CDT.
  Philadelphia around 440 PM CDT.
  Burnside around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tucker, Standing Pine and Walnut Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8955 3289 8966 3293 8966 3293 8892
      3258 8892 3258 8936 3261 8952 3270 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 255DEG 28KT 3266 8942 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DB

137 
WWUS54 KJAN 182120
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
420 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

MSC079-099-182145-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190418T2145Z/
Leake MS-Neshoba MS-
420 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LEAKE AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...
    
At 420 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Madden, or 8 miles south of Edinburg, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Dixon around 430 PM CDT.
  Pearl River around 435 PM CDT.
  Philadelphia and Neshoba around 440 PM CDT.
  Bethsaida around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tucker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8952 3293 8954 3293 8892 3258 8892
      3265 8939 3270 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 255DEG 25KT 3268 8933 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DB

863 
WWUS54 KJAN 182132
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
432 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

MSC079-182141-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190418T2145Z/
Leake MS-
432 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LEAKE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for central and
east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3273 8932 3293 8932 3293 8897 3292 8896
      3292 8893 3293 8893 3293 8892 3270 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 237DEG 29KT 3275 8924 

$$

MSC099-182145-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190418T2145Z/
Neshoba MS-
432 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
NESHOBA COUNTY...
    
At 431 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Pearl River, or near Edinburg, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Philadelphia around 435 PM CDT.
  Burnside and Stallo around 445 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 8932 3293 8932 3293 8897 3292 8896
      3292 8893 3293 8893 3293 8892 3270 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 237DEG 29KT 3275 8924 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Apr 18, 12:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 18, 12:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region today. MVFR ceilings will be widespread throughout the
TAF period with patchy IFR possible. The main concern will be a
line of severe thunderstorms moving from west to east across the
area. Winds will be gusty out of the south through the day before
shifting to out of the north and remaining gusty overnight. /TW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A widespread severe weather episode is still expected today with
all hazards likely. A strong shortwave trough currently over the
Southern Plains will continue to lift northeast through the Lower
Mississippi River Valley today. The main surface low over northern
Michigan will continue to lift through the Great Lakes region with
an attendant cold front draped through the Mississippi Valley.
Secondary cyclogenesis is ongoing along the frontal boundary over
east Texas with a deepening low progged to lift into northern
Mississippi through the day. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are already ongoing across portions of the Delta into central
Louisiana. The majority of this activity, especially across the
Delta, remains elevated above a slowly propagating cold pool.
Little additional forward progress of the cold pool is expected as
it encounters strengthening low-level wind fields in response to
the aforementioned deepening surface low. Warm and moist advection
across the capped warm sector will help 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
to build through the afternoon beneath strengthening vertical wind
shear, especially in the 0-1km layer.

Early morning runs of the hi-res CAM guidance continue to depict
an intense QLCS moving through the area late this morning through
the early evening hours. Ongoing upstream convection is expected
to congeal into a solid line of storms as strong forcing for
ascent and stout pressure falls overspread the area. A semi-
discrete supercell or two will also be possible ahead of the line.
Favorable parameter space will be supportive of tornadoes, both
line embedded and in any pre-line supercells, of which a few could
be strong, in addition to damaging winds of 70-80mph and isolated
hail up to quarter size. Anomalous moisture combined with heavy
rainfall rates will also lead to flash flooding as 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts could fall in a short amount of time.
The ongoing graphics remain on track and no major changes were
needed with this forecast update. /TW/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...Chances for severe storms and heavy rainfall
resulting in flash flooding, will be possible across the ArkLaMiss
from late this morning through early this evening.  The most intense
storms will be capable of producing winds gusts of 70-80 mph, in
addition to tornadoes, to which a strong tornado cannot be ruled
out, and hail to the size of quarters.  Also, high rainfall rates in
a short amount of time and the potential for training storms, could
result in flash flooding across the forecast area where soils are
already saturated from recent heavy rains.  Rainfall totals on the
order of 2-4 inches will be possible across the forecast area, with
localized higher amounts possible.  As a result, a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect until 10 PM tonight for the entire CWA.

A potent and still deepening mid/upper level low pressure system,
will dig south and pivot east into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley over the next 24 hours.  The resulting increased flow
throughout the atmosphere over the region ahead of it, will cause
anomalous moisture increase across the CWA, resulting in increased
instability across the forecast area through the late morning and
afternoon hours today. Wind shear values will increase across the
forecast area during this time as well.

Meanwhile at the surface, the southeast digging mid/upper level low
will be responsible for causing a strong cold front to develop
across the southern plains and stretching south into South Texas.
This front will begin shifting east towards the ArkLaMiss through
the day.  However ahead of this, a large east advancing outflow
boundary stretches southwest from the Missouri Bootheel, through the
ArkLaTex, and into South Texas.

As today progresses, this cold pool(s) will continue its east
advancement, but should weaken at bit through the early morning
hours due to a diurnal heating minimum.  However, as heating ensues
from the late morning through the afternoon hours, instability, wind
shear, and ascent increase across the forecast area as a surface low
develops and lifts northeast through the CWA.  This will result in
robust thunderstorms developing and becoming organized out ahead of
the aforementioned cold front.  It'll again be during this time,
late morning through early evening, when the chances for severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding increase across the entire
ArkLaMiss.

High-res models are in good agreement and continue to indicate the
overall mode of convection being in the form of an intense QLCS
shifting east across the forecast area.  With bowing segments
expected within this line, damaging straight-line winds are
expected, in addition to the potential for tornadoes spinning up
along breaks in the line.  Some models also continue to indicate the
potential for discrete supercells lifting northeast across mainly
southern Mississippi ahead of the QLCS.

The tightening pressure gradient over the area both pre and post-
frontal, will result in gusty southerly winds today and gusty
northerly winds this evening and overnight.  Surface winds could
become sustained between 15-25 during this time, with gusts between
25-35 mph possible.  As a result, I've introduced a "Limited" threat
for strong gradient winds across the entire ArkLaMiss into the HWO
for today into tonight. /19/

Friday through Saturday night...a deepening upper trough will dig
southward through the MS Valley and eventually close off to form
an impressive low over the TN Valley. Resulting cold cyclonic
flow above the ArkLaMiss region will support scattered to numerous
showers Friday as substantial instability develops even with
afternoon surface temperatures only in the mid/upper 50s. Some
thundershowers and perhaps even small hail could develop during
the afternoon given the steep lapse rates and low freezing levels.
In any case, expect much below normal temperatures for this time
of the year with breezy northwesterly surface wind and
clouds/precip making for uncomfortable mid April conditions. As
we go into the weekend, precip chances will end and conditions
will improve significantly with much milder daytime temperatures,
but nights will remain chilly as clearing skies/light wind
combine to bring ideal cooling with lows dropping well into the
40s.

Sunday through next Wednesday night...mid/upper level ridging will
increase over the ArkLaMiss region supporting warmer temperatures
and continued mostly dry weather through early week, but there are
indications that a slow-moving shortwave trough crossing the
Southern Plains may eventually increase rain chances over the
ArkLaMiss by the time we get to Wednesday and Wed night. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  49  59  41 / 100  57  57   8
Meridian      80  50  60  40 / 100  97  53  20
Vicksburg     74  50  62  42 / 100  47  42   4
Hattiesburg   82  51  63  41 / 100  97  36   7
Natchez       77  49  62  42 / 100  47  28   2
Greenville    72  50  59  44 / 100  51  36   4
Greenwood     76  50  57  40 / 100  60  62   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

TW/19/EC

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 18, 5:19 AM CDT, 10 hours 31 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-182000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
being possible. High profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, and
quarter size hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding are likely,
with some road closures possible due to flooding.  Two to four
inches of rain, with locally higher amounts over a short period
of time is expected. River flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026-MSZ025-034-035-040>042-047-053-059>061-
182000-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northwest Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today an tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph being
possible. High profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely, and a
strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Damaging wind gusts of 70 to
80 mph, and quarter size hail are likely as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding are likely,
with some road closures possible due to flooding.  Two to four
inches of rain, with locally higher amounts over a short period
of time is expected. River flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ026>030-032-033-036>038-043-044-048>050-054-055-062>064-182000-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-
Attala-Winston-Madison MS-Leake-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Copiah-Simpson-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
being possible. High profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely, and a
strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Damaging wind gusts of 70 to
80 mph, and quarter size hail are likely as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding are likely,
with some road closures possible due to flooding. Two to four
inches of rain, with locally higher amounts over a short period of
time is expected. River flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ031-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-065-066-072>074-182000-
Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today into early this evening, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes
are likely, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Damaging
wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph, and quarter size hail are likely as
well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today into tonight, heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding
are likely, with some road closures possible due to flooding. Two
to four inches of rain, with locally higher amounts over a short
period of time is expected. River flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
being possible. High profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:30 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE CLINTON           32.33N 90.30W
04/18/2019                   HINDS              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            SOUTH END OF PATIO PL FLOODED NOW.

&&

TP

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:31 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE CLINTON           32.33N 90.30W
04/18/2019                   HINDS              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ON ROOF OF HOUSE.

&&

TP

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:37 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW LE FLEURS BLUFF   32.33N 90.18W
04/18/2019                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STATE AND WOODROW WILSON AREA FLOODED.

&&

TP

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:39 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE CLINTON           32.33N 90.30W
04/18/2019                   HINDS              MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CARS FLIPPED IN WALMART PARKING LOT.

&&

AW

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:45 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW BRAXTON            31.99N 90.01W
04/18/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES REPORTED DOWN BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

TP

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:48 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE TOUGALOO          32.39N 90.13W
04/18/2019                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING KRISTEN DR IN NORTHEAST
            JACKSON AND REDDOCH DRIVE.

&&

AW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 18, 12:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Adams, Jefferson	60 min
Apr 18, 12:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Adams	31 min
Apr 18, 1:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Claiborne, Franklin, Jefferson, Warren	74 min
Apr 18, 1:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Claiborne, Jefferson	46 min
Apr 18, 1:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Copiah, Hinds, Warren	82 min
Apr 18, 1:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lincoln	77 min
Apr 18, 1:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Copiah, Hinds	62 min
Apr 18, 1:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Franklin, Lincoln	63 min
Apr 18, 2:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Hinds, Issaquena, Madison, Warren	3 hr
Apr 18, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Madison, Rankin, Simpson	74 min
Apr 18, 2:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Lawrence, Lincoln	49 min
Apr 18, 2:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Marion	75 min
Apr 18, 2:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Hinds, Madison, Rankin	53 min
Apr 18, 2:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	JAN	Rankin, Simpson	65 min
Apr 18, 3:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis	43 min
Apr 18, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Scott, Smith	55 min
Apr 18, 3:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	JAN	Scott, Smith	45 min
Apr 18, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington	74 min
Apr 18, 3:21 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Leake, Madison, Rankin, Scott	3 hr
Apr 18, 3:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper, Newton	80 min
Apr 18, 3:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	JAN	Leake, Madison, Rankin, Scott	64 min
Apr 18, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leake, Madison, Neshoba, Rankin	77 min
Apr 18, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion	64 min
Apr 18, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jones	76 min
Apr 18, 3:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Newton	29 min
Apr 18, 4:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clarke, Lauderdale	73 min
Apr 18, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Kemper	65 min
Apr 18, 4:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Kemper, Lauderdale	63 min
Apr 18, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Forrest, Lamar	75 min
Apr 18, 4:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Forrest, Jones, Lamar	46 min
Apr 18, 4:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Noxubee, Winston	64 min
Apr 18, 4:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Neshoba, Noxubee, Winston	61 min
Apr 18, 4:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Forrest	47 min
Apr 18, 4:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Noxubee	62 min
Apr 18, 5:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Forrest, Jones, Lamar	117 min
Apr 18, 5:05 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Marion	51 min
Apr 18, 5:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Lowndes, Noxubee	26 min
Apr 18, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha	37 min
Apr 18, 5:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha	115 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Mississippi, 2019 Every tornado warning in 2019 Tornadoes in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.