Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1244 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
A few areas of MVFR ceilings have hung on into the early afternoon
across the area but most locations have lifted to VFR. The main
concern, however, is a line of showers and thunderstorms slowly
pushing east through the area. This line is currently, as of 18z,
located from CBM to JAN to HEZ. It will continue east through the
afternoon and into the early evening hours with VCTS/VCSH as
GTR/JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG/PIB. Clouds will clear from west to east
through the evening and most locations will return to VFR. /TW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A compact cyclone continues to lift northeast through the Midwest
and into the Great Lakes region today. A stalled frontal boundary
has begun to slowly push east again today and is currently located
across eastern Arkansas and Louisiana. Earlier convection that
prompted a tornado watch, which has now been canceled, has
weakened and become elevated above the respective cold pool.
Showers and storms will continue to push east/northeast through
the rest of today into tonight and will become reinvigorated this
afternoon as instability increases across the region. Shear will
be plentiful, however forcing will be confined to the surface
front as mid-level heights begin to rise across the area. This,
along with boundary parallel flow, will limit the overall coverage
and severity of severe weather the rest of today. The greatest
severe potential will be across northeast portions of the area
generally along a line from Meridian to Columbus. The wind
advisory will continue through this afternoon for locations across
the Delta and Hwy 82 corridor where winds continue to remain
gusty. Will also keep the flash flood watch going across the
backwater flooding areas of the Delta as any additional heavy
rainfall will only exacerbate the ongoing flooding. Once precip
exits the backwater area later this morning the flash flood watch
will be canceled. /TW/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: One more day of "busier" weather is on tap
during this midweek stretch, so let's get after it. Right now,
isolated showers dot the radar scope across the forecast area. The
line of convection that moved into the Delta last night stalled
and fell apart as the driving upper level support pulled northward
and away from the region. Now a new line of storms has developed
along the front itself and is currently moving across the ArkLaTex
this morning. Some of these storms are severe, producing strong
wind gusts and small hail. An overall weakening trend is
anticipated with this line as it continues eastward. This
convection may bring a few bands of locally heavy rainfall into
the flooded Yazoo Backwater area. Given the ongoing situation
there, we extended the Flash Flood Watch shortly for a very
limited area most impacted by current flooding out of an abundance
of caution.

Through the day as the front continues eastward, a band of
showers and perhaps isolated storms will accompany it across
central portions of the area. With instability building through
the day convection is expected to become reinvigorated as it moves
into eastern MS and approaches AL. Much like yesterday, though
there will be respectable parameter spacing for severe weather,
other negating factors will come into play. Most notably, upper
level forcing will be negligent as mid level heights begin rising
through the day. This doesn't suggest there will be no severe
weather, but it often indicates it won't be as widespread as it
might otherwise be with better forcing. We will tweak our
HWO/graphics to show the greater severe threat more limited to
East MS, but otherwise our expectations have not substantially
changed. Much of the area will be dry by sunset following the
passage of the front, but showers and a few storms will hang up
near the Pine Belt into the evening hours, with rain chances
generally decreasing overnight.

Strong gradient winds have persisted through the night as the
strong surface cyclone lifts across the Central Plains, with GLH
recently reporting a 25 mph sustained wind. This will continue
ahead of the front today and increase with daytime mixing,
especially over the northern portion of the area where the
pressure gradient will be tightest. Thus, we have extended/
expanded the Wind Advisory for the Delta and North MS through the
daytime hours. Wind will subside from west to east with the
passage of the front. /DL/

Friday through Wednesday:

A chance for showers will continue into the day on Friday across
the Pine Belt as the front continues to slowly push south and east
of our forecast area, but drier air moving in at the surface
should greatly limit chances by the afternoon and evening. The
remainder of the forecast should remain mostly quiet with near
normal temperatures as the upper-level trough axis orients more
over the East Coast and flow aloft becomes progressively more
northwesterly. Some of the model guidance hint at some light QPF
with a quick moving shortwave sometime early to middle of next
week, but expect dry conditions to prevail.

Temperatures may be able to radiate cool enough on Saturday night
for some frost to develop as a surface high pressure settles over
the region. Will hold off on including in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook text and graphics for now as there is some uncertainty
whether cloud cover or wind will be the most favorable for frost.
A mention of patchy frost has been added to the forecast however.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  49  61  39 /  50  16   5   1
Meridian      81  53  61  40 /  69  63  19   5
Vicksburg     78  47  61  40 /  69   3   2   1
Hattiesburg   82  56  60  43 /  35  67  38  19
Natchez       79  49  59  41 /  66   6   4   3
Greenville    75  44  58  37 /  76   0   0   0
Greenwood     78  44  58  36 /  75   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ026>033-
     036>039.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/DL

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