Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions occurring today and should continue, especially for
TAF sites across the east. KJAN/KGLH/KHKS/KGWO may or will see
storms today which will reduce ceilings and visibility to MVFR or
lower. Storms should diminish this evening. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms continue to slide down through the western half
of the forecast area as an upper low pressure system meanders
across the northern part of the area. Expect this to continue
through the day, with storms mainly affecting the western part of
the region. Some storms could bring damaging winds and hail to the
region and the marginal risk still looks reasonable. Minor
adjustments needed for the forecast this morning. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Today through tonight:

The convective scenario for today could end up being similar to
yesterday as we watch a meandering upper level low continue to dig
southward around the eastern periphery of an expanding
subtropical high over the central CONUS. Colder air aloft (H500 T
~ -10 deg C) and lift associated with the low will continue to
interact with a very moist airmass to bring another round of
potentially organized storms today per latest CAM guidance. The
difference today will be the earlier onset of storms given that a
few showers and storms have already developed over north MS, and
a westward shift in focus area for potentially severe downbursts.
With that said, SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe
storms for mainly western portions of the forecast area and will
include that in the HWO/graphics this afternoon. Otherwise,
expect storms to diminish this evening with a mostly quiet
overnight. /EC/

Saturday through next Thursday:

A weak mid/upper level low will continue to meander about the
western Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sunday. This weakness over
the region will aid in the development of mainly diurnal showers
and storms over the CWA during this time, with a passing complex
of storms not out of the question, particularly Saturday. Gusty
winds and frequent lightning will be possible with the storms.
Otherwise, highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Lows each night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Rain chances wane a bit on Monday, and continue on the low end of
the spectrum through Thursday.  This is as a result of high pressure
aloft building into the region, and remaining as such through the
remainder of the period.  These rain chances will remain primarily
diurnally driven during the week, while dissipating shortly after
sunset each evening.  Highs during this time will range from the
lower to middle 90s, with some afternoon heat index values creeping
up to around the century mark.  Lows each night will fall to the low
and middle 70s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  68  89  70 /  59  20  40  28
Meridian      89  69  91  72 /  51  23  41  26
Vicksburg     86  68  87  71 /  63  33  44  25
Hattiesburg   89  69  89  71 /  52  28  54  31
Natchez       88  68  87  70 /  64  38  57  29
Greenville    82  69  88  71 /  66  37  31  19
Greenwood     82  69  88  72 /  58  19  34  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040>042-
047-048-053-054-059>063-290915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop with
daytime heating, and a few of these could become severe,
especially this afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ025>033-036>039-043>046-049>052-055>058-064>066-072>074-290915-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
119 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

LAZ025-281845-
Tensas LA-
119 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISH UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Cooter Point, or 20 miles north of Ferriday. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Helena around 145 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 9154 3191 9153 3193 9151 3195 9151
      3196 9153 3197 9152 3201 9136 3187 9129
      3181 9154 3190 9156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 344DEG 4KT 3192 9145

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
135 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

MSZ043-048-281900-
Hinds MS-Madison MS-
135 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HINDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Clinton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clinton around 140 PM CDT.
  Jackson around 200 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 9038 3238 9046 3256 9019 3243 9006
      3242 9006 3242 9007 3240 9007 3238 9010
      3236 9010 3236 9011 3234 9011 3232 9014
      3233 9015 3230 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 336DEG 22KT 3240 9029

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
149 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

MSZ054-059-062-281930-
Jefferson MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-
149 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Allen, or 14 miles southwest of Hazlehurst, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Caseyville around 220 PM CDT.
  Loyd Star around 230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 9081 3187 9051 3162 9038 3161 9082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 334DEG 7KT 3176 9061

TW

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