Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions occurring today and should continue, especially for
TAF sites across the east. KJAN/KGLH/KHKS/KGWO may or will see
storms today which will reduce ceilings and visibility to MVFR or
lower. Storms should diminish this evening. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms continue to slide down through the western half
of the forecast area as an upper low pressure system meanders
across the northern part of the area. Expect this to continue
through the day, with storms mainly affecting the western part of
the region. Some storms could bring damaging winds and hail to the
region and the marginal risk still looks reasonable. Minor
adjustments needed for the forecast this morning. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Today through tonight:

The convective scenario for today could end up being similar to
yesterday as we watch a meandering upper level low continue to dig
southward around the eastern periphery of an expanding
subtropical high over the central CONUS. Colder air aloft (H500 T
~ -10 deg C) and lift associated with the low will continue to
interact with a very moist airmass to bring another round of
potentially organized storms today per latest CAM guidance. The
difference today will be the earlier onset of storms given that a
few showers and storms have already developed over north MS, and
a westward shift in focus area for potentially severe downbursts.
With that said, SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe
storms for mainly western portions of the forecast area and will
include that in the HWO/graphics this afternoon. Otherwise,
expect storms to diminish this evening with a mostly quiet
overnight. /EC/

Saturday through next Thursday:

A weak mid/upper level low will continue to meander about the
western Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sunday. This weakness over
the region will aid in the development of mainly diurnal showers
and storms over the CWA during this time, with a passing complex
of storms not out of the question, particularly Saturday. Gusty
winds and frequent lightning will be possible with the storms.
Otherwise, highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Lows each night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Rain chances wane a bit on Monday, and continue on the low end of
the spectrum through Thursday.  This is as a result of high pressure
aloft building into the region, and remaining as such through the
remainder of the period.  These rain chances will remain primarily
diurnally driven during the week, while dissipating shortly after
sunset each evening.  Highs during this time will range from the
lower to middle 90s, with some afternoon heat index values creeping
up to around the century mark.  Lows each night will fall to the low
and middle 70s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  68  89  70 /  59  20  40  28
Meridian      89  69  91  72 /  51  23  41  26
Vicksburg     86  68  87  71 /  63  33  44  25
Hattiesburg   89  69  89  71 /  52  28  54  31
Natchez       88  68  87  70 /  64  38  57  29
Greenville    82  69  88  71 /  66  37  31  19
Greenwood     82  69  88  72 /  58  19  34  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040>042-
047-048-053-054-059>063-290915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop with
daytime heating, and a few of these could become severe,
especially this afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ025>033-036>039-043>046-049>052-055>058-064>066-072>074-290915-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

ARZ075-MSZ018-034-281715-
Chicot AR-Washington MS-Bolivar MS-
1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHICOT...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN BOLIVAR COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
PM CDT...

At 1147 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Lamont, or 10 miles northwest of Greenville, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lamont around 1205 PM CDT.
  Greenville, Metcalfe and Winterville around 1215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 9090 3327 9106 3345 9130 3357 9121
      3357 9120 3358 9118 3358 9115 3359 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 299DEG 11KT 3349 9118

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

MSZ035-036-042-281800-
Humphreys MS-Yazoo MS-Holmes MS-
1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN HOLMES...NORTH CENTRAL
YAZOO AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1205 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Belzoni, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Thornton around 1220 PM CDT.
  Tolarville around 1230 PM CDT.
  Coxburg around 1235 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Eden and Silver City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 9009 3280 9042 3307 9066 3309 9066
      3310 9069 3311 9068 3312 9070 3314 9070
      3317 9068 3320 9068 3327 9045 3324 9042
      3325 9038 3324 9037 3328 9038 3328 9036
      3330 9035 3332 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 332DEG 27KT 3317 9042

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
108 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

MSZ048-054-281845-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-
108 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HINDS AND
NORTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 108 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Carpenter, or 19 miles west of Crystal Springs, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dentville and Barlow around 145 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9072 3195 9071 3206 9072 3215 9061
      3192 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 332DEG 9KT 3201 9068

TW