Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
654 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across most of the region this early
evening, but a line of severe thunderstorms is moving across NE
Louisiana and S Arkansas and will push across Mississippi later
this evening. Along with a period of ceiling/visibility reduction,
wind gusts to 50 kt, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Overnight, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop across
much of the area. An additional round of SHRA/TSRA is expected
late overnight into the daytime tomorrow, bringing the potential
for additional visibility reductions. Flight conditions are
expected to gradually improve tomorrow afternoon from west to
east. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday Night:

Regional analysis shows a line of showers and storms continuing to
move northeast across our forecast area this afternoon, but the main
focus will be with an MCS moving east across northwest Louisiana this
afternoon. There is a Limited risk for severe weather with this MCS,
as favorably aligned wind shear vectors will support organized
convection as the line propagates east toward our northeast
Louisiana parishes and far southeast Arkansas counties. As long as
instability remains ahead of the line, expect this line to continue
pushing east into this evening. Analyzed effective helicity values
in excess of 300 just ahead of the line indicate plenty of low-level
stretching potential, and thus a few tornadoes will be possible in
addition to damaging wind gusts before the line weakens later this
evening. With the loss of instability farther east through the
evening, the severe and tornado threat will diminish as the MCS
moves into western Mississippi. A Tornado Watch has been issued to
cover these portions of the forecast area, and currently we do not
anticipate the severe threat continuing much beyond the the 11
o'clock hour.

The other element of the short-term forecast to watch for is the
potential for flash flooding. The MCS moving into the area this
evening will bring storms producing heavy rainfall, and we will
continue the Flash Flood Watch for far northwestern portions of the
area heading into tomorrow. As the MCS decays overnight, the outflow
boundary may help to focus additional re-development of heavy
showers and storms overnight into tomorrow morning. With an expected
40-50kt low level jet interacting with such an outflow boundary,
this overnight convection could overachieve with rainfall
production. Some of the hi-res guidance has backed off from earlier
depictions of intense rainfall, but we will continue to monitor for
signs of training storms setting up overnight. Apart from the Flash
Flood Watch, we will continue to advertise an Elevated threat for
flash flooding across areas which are already waterlogged after
weeks of heavy rain events.

During the day on Thursday, wherever the outflow boundary starts the
day, expect this to be the focus for the new day's thunderstorm
development. Storms should build south and east throughout the day as
they propagate into the unstable airmass. Given some spatial
uncertainties following tonight's round of convection, the Slight
risk for severe weather has been expanded to cover the entire
forecast area. Damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail will be
the primary severe weather hazards, and the possibility of training,
slow-moving thunderstorms will expand the threat for flash flooding
across the area tomorrow. Again, the greatest risk for flash
flooding will be where soils are already saturated, but high rain
rates and the possibility for training storms will keep the threat
for at least localized flooding a concern through the day. /NF/

Friday through Tuesday...

A wet pattern will continue Friday through the weekend as the region
remains under southwest flow aloft. A front will stall generally
across the central part of the forecast area. Several disturbances
will move across the front, which will result in a period of
prolonged of heavy rain, and subsequently flash flooding. While
severe weather cannot be completely ruled out during the latter
portions of the week, this is something that will need to be
assessed on a smaller scale from residual boundaries/heating/shear,
etc. The bigger concern during this time period will be from the
continued rainfall, leading to flooding issues. After the forecasted
amounts of 3-4.5 inches in the Delta(1-2 inches elsewhere) in the
short term, another 2-3.5 inches of rain will be possible in the
west from Friday through Saturday night. 1-2 inches will be possible
elsewhere. Will continue to message this in our HWO and graphics for
an extended period and the Flash Flood Watch will likely need to be
extended in area and time at some point.

The rain will finally move out of the region later Sunday night as
the upper trough pushes through the region. Upper ridging and
surface high pressure will move into the region for the early
portions of the week. Drier air will move in and conditions look
rather pleasant across the area. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  81  68  79 /  34  84  61  92
Meridian      68  85  67  82 /  28  84  58  88
Vicksburg     71  82  68  76 /  34  92  65  88
Hattiesburg   70  86  69  83 /  21  84  65  87
Natchez       71  84  70  77 /  27  82  74  93
Greenville    69  80  65  72 /  62  92  49  78
Greenwood     69  79  66  75 /  51  92  47  82

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ018-034.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ007.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/NF/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040-041-
047-092200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening and again
during the day on Thursday. These thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds to 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a
few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Areas of flash flooding are possible through Thursday, and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will continue into the weekend with additional rounds of
thunderstorms through that time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday night.

MSZ029-032-037-092200-
Webster-Choctaw-Attala-
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Thursday

Areas of flash flooding are possible through Thursday, and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. These
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph, hail up to
the size of quarters, and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will continue into the weekend with additional rounds of
thunderstorms through that time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Thursday
through Thursday night.

MSZ025>028-036-042-092200-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Holmes-Yazoo-
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Thursday

Areas of flash flooding are possible through Thursday, and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening and again
during the day on Thursday. These thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds to 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a
few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will continue into the weekend with additional rounds of
thunderstorms through that time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday night.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-
092200-
Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Thursday

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. These
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph, hail up to
the size of quarters, and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will continue into the weekend with additional rounds of
thunderstorms through that time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Thursday
through Thursday night.

MSZ043-048-049-053-054-059-061-062-092200-
Madison MS-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Thursday

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening and again
during the day on Thursday. These thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds to 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a
few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will continue into the weekend with additional rounds of
thunderstorms through that time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday night.

MSZ060-092200-
Adams-
448 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening and again
on Thursday. These thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will continue into the weekend with additional rounds of
thunderstorms through that time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday night.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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