River Flood Warning 102, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
708 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Deteriorating flying conditions are occurring this morning as a
line of showers and storms moves into the area. While VFR
conditions continue to occur at many TAF sites, these should
decrease as storms move through. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
this afternoon. VFR ceilings will return from west to east as
storms and rain move out of the region. Winds will be gusty out of
the south to west ahead of the front with sustained speeds around
10-15kts and gusts to 20kts. Winds will shift out of the north
behind the frontal passaged but speeds will still be around 10kts.
VFR and some MVFR ceilings will linger into the overnight hours.
/28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Showers and storms have developed across the region this morning and
pushed into portions of the Delta. These storms have had a history
of tornadoes and damage across Louisiana but the severity has
seemingly decreased some as it pushes east. Nevertheless, there
remains a risk for damaging winds and even a tornado. Thus, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of the region
through 9am. As this line moves east, it is possible or likely that
this watch will need to be extended to cover additional counties.
This activity, as depicted on several hi-res model solutions, will
continue to push east through the morning and will continue the
potential for severe weather through the afternoon hours. Flash
flooding will also be of a concern as rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches
will occur in a short period of time.

Much of the convective line will push east of the state border by
early evening. However, another band of isolated storms will follow
as the main upper level trough pushes through. Rain should taper off
from west to east  through the evening, if not before, and drier
weather should start Friday. /28/

Tomorrow through mid next week (Friday - next Wednesday):

As the trough digs through the Appalachians, this will help the
surface low & cold front to continue to swing into the mid-Atlantic.
Our area will remain on the eastern side of the mid-level & surface
ridge of high pressure building in. Due to north-northwesterly flow
aloft, we should continue to have some drier air, with PWs around or
less than a half inch, filtering in. This will help clouds to clear
out & slightly cooler temperatures to filter in on Friday.

Expect mid-level ridging & increasing thermal warmth to increase
through the weekend, with a trough & mostly dry cold front to filter
in across the Highway 82 corridor. This will lead to some increase
in very light rain chances & possibly a rumble of thunder or so in
this region Sunday morning. Expect strong ridge to build over the
western Gulf of Mexico into early next week, leading to increasing
thermal warmth (i.e. 925mb temperatures around upper teens) &
humidity. Highs will be above normal temperatures into the mid-upper
80s by early through middle of next week (i.e. Monday-Wednesday).
Due to strengthening ridge to the south & east, the warmest should
be across our central & eastern zones. As a trough ejects out of the
Rockies & another digs into the Pacific northwest, southwesterly
flow aloft will help rain & storm chances to increase across the
Plains. Our area should remain mostly capped & drier air aloft,
keeping the best rain & storm chances off the west. Majority of the
increasing rain & storm chances will be at the end & just after the
period into late next week, as better ascent, moisture & lapse rates
become juxtaposed over the area. For now, kept some diurnal rain &
storm chances across the west on Wednesday, with better chances into
late week. Due to the "summer-like" pattern, some microburst &
stronger organized convection is possible into late next week. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  58  76  52 /  99  38   4   2
Meridian      74  59  77  50 / 100  59   6   2
Vicksburg     76  58  75  52 /  98  19   3   2
Hattiesburg   75  59  78  51 / 100  42   6   2
Natchez       76  59  76  52 /  99  20   3   1
Greenville    74  58  73  53 /  84  26   3   2
Greenwood     73  57  74  52 /  84  44   4   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>