Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Jackson, MS

069 
WGUS54 KJAN 142037
FFWJAN
MSC061-067-150000-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-190715T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
337 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Jackson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Jasper County in east central Mississippi...
  Jones County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar and rain gauges indicated heavy rain 
  falling across the warned area. Up to seven inches of rain have 
  fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Laurel, Ellisville, Stringer, Bay Springs, Sandersville,
  Heidelberg, Paulding, Moss, Rose Hill, Turnerville, Eastabuchie,
  Orange, Ovett, Stafford Springs, Mill Creek, Tuckers Crossing,
  Moselle, Soso, Louin and Montrose.

Additional rainfall amounts of two to three inches are possible in 
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 8939 3180 8932 3221 8932 3222 8892
      3201 8891 3183 8892 3182 8894 3144 8894
      3143 8940

$$

JM

040 
WGUS74 KJAN 142315
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

MSC061-067-142324-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-190715T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jasper MS-Jones MS-
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JASPER AND JONES COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3180 8939 3180 8932 3221 8932 3222 8892
      3201 8891 3183 8892 3182 8894 3144 8894
      3143 8940

$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Widespread rain will continue to keep MVFR conditions predominant
through the period, but occasionally becoming IFR. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible around HBG and PIB. Winds will
continue from the southeast at 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30
knots./GG/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Focus this morning remains on Barry and its decreasing transition.
Despite the center near Shreveport LA, the asymmetric nature remains
and the moisture rich areas continue to the be the S/SE and now E
sides. This fits the overall transition the models have been
suggesting and with the wind field relaxing today, look like the
active sides will continue to be on the S/SE with more of the E side
becoming a bigger part. For us, our forecast area in all within this
active side and this looks to remain so as we move into Monday, so
our active period will remain for another 24-36 hrs. As for specific
threats and impact priority, here's a breakdown:

Flood Threat: This threat remains the focus for biggest impacts.
We've see a few corridors from the overnight/morning period with
measured amounts of 2-5 inches. These have been more with the
eastern bands and in focused corridors. However, models continue to
support the idea of a heavy precip axis taking shape today and
overnight across our SW and the W-central. This is where the really
deep tropical moisture (sfc dewpts 77-79) will be tapped in the
primary confluent zone. Our graphics and messaging have been hitting
this potential and will remain. Here, confidence is high in 4-8
inches with localized 8-12 inches possible. Rain rates will be very
high with extremely efficient rainfall process. The rest of the area
should see 2-6 inches with locally higher amounts. This is event
total expectations. As noted, some locations are already in the 2-5
inch range, the wording for locally higher fits that thinking. For
timing, today into a good portion of Mon is the main window with
tonight potentially seeing some really high amounts over the SW cwa.

Severe Threat: Thinking is not much different in terms of brief
tornadoes being the main threat with some damaging wind gusts mixed
in the better/more intense bands. What has changed is confidence is
a little higher based off latest trends where conditions may support
a bit more coverage of severe storms. Due to this, Slight risk was
added and expanded to cover a large portion of the area. Instability
will be lacking, but the deeper tropical airmass where sfc dewpts in
the upper 70s will make for a more favorable thermodynamic
environment. Additionally, low level shear is best from I-55 and
west, with lesser shear the more E. Overall, the best overlap of
shear/instability is roughly across central parts of the cwa and
fits with the Slight risk area. Timing is now into the overnight and
could linger into Monday. Basically long duration as residence time
in the favorable parameter space will exist.

Wind Threat: this has ended as the circulation center of Barry is
too far removed. There could be occasional gusts to 25 mph. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  73  82  72 / 100  91  85  34
Meridian      82  73  83  74 /  84  75  75  24
Vicksburg     76  73  82  75 / 100 100  84  43
Hattiesburg   80  73  84  74 / 100  73  72  21
Natchez       76  73  82  74 / 100  95  86  32
Greenville    75  72  81  74 / 100 100  88  62
Greenwood     77  72  81  75 / 100 100  88  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>038-042>045-048>051-054>057-
062>066-072>074-150930-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north
central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Several rounds of very heavy rain will lead to areas of flash
flooding becoming likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

MSZ030-031-033-039-046-052-058-150930-
Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Noxubee-Kemper-Lauderdale-Clarke-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Several rounds of heavy rain may lead to localized flash flooding
especially in low lying and urban areas through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-025-MSZ040-041-047-053-150930-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Tensas-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-Claiborne-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through tonight. Many roads could be flooded or closed
and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

LAZ023-024-026-MSZ059-060-150930-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through tonight. Many roads could be flooded or closed
and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained winds up
to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph today. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

MSZ061-150930-
Franklin MS-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Several rounds of very heavy rain will lead to areas of flash
flooding becoming likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained winds up
to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph today. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1134 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE MOSELLE            31.52N 89.26W
07/14/2019                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON THE INTERSECTION OF
            JOSH ROAD AND MOSELLE OAK GROVE ROAD.

&&

JE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1138 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

MSZ051-052-057-058-141700-
Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
1138 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN
NEWTON...WESTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON CDT...

At 1137 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Goodwater, or 12 miles south of Quitman, moving north at 70 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. We are
also monitoring weak rotation with ths storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  De Soto and Barnett around 1145 AM CDT.
  Quitman around 1150 AM CDT.
  Stonewall around 1155 AM CDT.
  Savoy and Sable around 1200 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pachuta, Shubuta and
Chunky.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8876 3182 8897 3236 8901 3238 8869
      3185 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 185DEG 59KT 3187 8880

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1157 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE MOSELLE            31.52N 89.26W
07/14/2019                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 2
            NE MOSELLE. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON THE
            INTERSECTION OF JOSH ROAD AND MOSELLE OAK
            GROVE ROAD.

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE LUX               31.47N 89.38W
07/14/2019                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 2
            NNE LUX. TREE DOWN ON ABNER BRYANT ROAD.

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S PURVIS              31.13N 89.41W
07/14/2019                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 11 NEAR PURVIS.

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N MACEDONIA           31.40N 89.17W
07/14/2019                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON WALTERS ROAD NEAR MACEDONIA
            ROAD.

&&

JE