Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Jackson, MS

995 
WGUS74 KJAN 141351
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
851 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

MSC129-141400-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-190714T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Smith MS-
851 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN SMITH COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3180 8940 3180 8932 3222 8932 3222 8909
      3143 8907 3143 8940

$$

MSC061-067-141500-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-190714T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jasper MS-Jones MS-
851 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN JASPER AND JONES COUNTIES...

At 850 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Two to four inches of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is 
expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Laurel, Ellisville, Stringer, Bay Springs, Moss, Turnerville,
Eastabuchie, Tuckers Crossing, Garlandville, Moselle, Soso, Louin and
Montrose.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 8940 3180 8932 3222 8932 3222 8909
      3143 8907 3143 8940

$$

GRG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
645 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Widespread RA with isolated TS will continue to spread across the
region today as Tropical Storm Barry lifts northward across the
region. Ceilings will fluctuate between low VFR and MVFR.
Visibilities will fall to IFR at times in heavier rain bands.
SE/ESE winds will be gusty at times, especially across SE
Arkansas/W Mississippi/NE Louisiana. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday:
Overview - The center of Tropical Storm Barry is now over western
Louisiana near Toledo Bend Reservoir, drifting northward this
early morning. Deepest convection remains displaced south of the
center over the warm Gulf waters, but we are finally seeing
cooling cloud tops with heavier rain bands making it well inland
along convergent bands extending roughly along I-55 and from
Vermillion Bay northward to near Alexandria. Through today, these
rain bands will continue to train northward across the area with
multiple swaths of heavier rainfall resulting in flash flooding.
Barry will continue northward into Arkansas tonight and Monday,
with rain bands becoming increasingly SW/NE oriented. While
overall coverage will likely decrease, the potential for locally
heavy rain will persist as there will still be a tendency for
these rain bands to train over the same areas. There will also be
a trend by Monday toward greater coverage over the northern half
of the area, with rain chances decreasing over the south.

While flooding impacts have been slow to materialize thus far, it
is important to note that the worst part of this system has yet
to reach our area. Strong potential still exists for localized
areas of significant flash flooding.

Additional details on impacts follow...

Flash Flood Threat - A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
areawide. There has been a continued trend toward the highest
amounts occurring farther over the western portion of the forecast
area, with lesser amounts closer to the AL state line. With less
rainfall occurring last night, there has also been a downward
trend in storm totals. For this forecast, we opted to use the HREF
mean QPF as a starting point for where to place the highest
forecast amounts and advertise the greatest impacts. Storm totals
were tweaked down a bit across the board, but given the potential
for training rain bands in a tropical airmass, I want to underline
that some of the locally higher-end rainfall amounts may still
occur, even in the areas farther east where lesser average totals
are expected. This trend toward somewhat lower storm totals does
not mean we are out of the woods yet.

Gradient Wind Threat - The Wind Advisory for northeast Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi will be continued through this morning.
Overnight, winds have gusted to as high as 41 mph at Natchez, 37
at Alexandria, and 36 mph at Vidalia. Given the persistence of
these gusts and rain soaked soils, numerous trees have been downed
in these areas and scattered power outages have resulted. It is
worth noting that gusty winds will remain possible across a good
chunk of Northeast LA and the Delta through into this afternoon.
While this isn't currently addressed in the HWO/graphics, this is
something we will monitor through the day - especially given the
greater impact with soaked soils.

Severe Storm Threat - Potential for brief tornadoes remains
over the entire area today. We did have a few tornado warnings
late last night as sufficient instability still existed,
coinciding with enhanced low level shear associated with Barry.
With the decrease in instability early this morning, that threat
has decreased for now. During the day today, the greatest
potential for any of these brief tornadoes will come in areas
where we can get a few breaks in the cloud deck allowing for
greater instability. Storm relative helicity remains high across
much of the area. A similar theme will carry over into Monday,
though the threat will be limited more toward the northern half of
the forecast area as the greater low level shear pulls northward
with the remnant low. /DL/

Monday night through Saturday: come Monday evening the remnants
of Barry are expected to be over northern Arkansas maintaining
potential for heavy rainfall over our northwest zones. The
remnants of Barry will continue to lift out to the northeast
across the mid Mississippi River valley Tuesday shifting the
potential for heavy rainfall north of our CWA but, it will take
until late Wednesday before the rain associated with Barry leaves
our northeast and high pressure builds back across our region. The
chance for rain and associated cloud cover will keep daytime
temperatures below normal through Wednesday while overnight lows
continue above normal. Thursday surface ridging will continue to
nose across the southeast states from the east while mid level
ridging spreads over the region from the west. A moist airmass
will remain in place with PWATs between an inch and three quarters
to two inches. It will be hard to rule out isolated storms in the
east and south during peak heating but the remainder of the CWA
should be dry. As temperatures top back out in the low to mid 90s,
peak heat index values will be near 105 in the west each
afternoon. Models differ with the GFS dropping a frontal boundary
into our area Saturday but consensus suggests the heat will
continue building into Saturday raising concern for a possible
heat advisory for a portion of our area. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  74  82  72 / 100  91  85  34
Meridian      80  74  83  74 /  85  75  75  24
Vicksburg     75  74  82  75 / 100 100  84  43
Hattiesburg   80  74  84  74 /  80  73  72  21
Natchez       77  74  82  74 / 100  95  86  32
Greenville    74  73  81  74 / 100 100  88  62
Greenwood     76  73  81  75 / 100 100  88  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ059>061.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>038-042>045-048>051-054>057-
062>066-072>074-150930-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north
central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Several rounds of very heavy rain will lead to areas of flash
flooding becoming likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

MSZ030-031-033-039-046-052-058-150930-
Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Noxubee-Kemper-Lauderdale-Clarke-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Several rounds of heavy rain may lead to localized flash flooding
especially in low lying and urban areas through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-025-MSZ040-041-047-053-150930-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Tensas-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-Claiborne-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through tonight. Many roads could be flooded or closed
and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

LAZ023-024-026-MSZ059-060-150930-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through tonight. Many roads could be flooded or closed
and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained winds up
to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph today. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

MSZ061-150930-
Franklin MS-
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible today and will remain possible
this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Several rounds of very heavy rain will lead to areas of flash
flooding becoming likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained winds up
to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph today. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible Monday generally north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Flash flooding will remain possible across the region Monday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moves away from the area.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
07/14/2019                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED ACROSS ADAMS COUNTY,
            INCLUDING ALONG CRANFIELD RD, PALESTINE RD,
            OLD HWY 84, LOWER WOODVILLE RD, PINEMOUNT
            RD, AND DUMAS DR.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE LUMBERTON         31.04N 89.44W
07/14/2019                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DEBRIS AND DOWNED POWER LINES ON US 11
            AT SENECA RD.

&&

DL