Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
649 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

...HEAVY RAIN ISSUES CONTINUE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF discussion:
Generally poor flight conditions to start the period as a stalled
frontal boundary in our region has led to very low stratus and
periods of DZ and SHRA. Some TSRA also possible especially after
18Z, but chances to impact any particular site were generally too
low to include in the TAFs at this time. Ceilings in the IFR to
LIFR range will continue through around 15Z, with some scattering
and lifting of the stratus deck expected to mix in some MVFR and
even VFR ceilings after that. Increasing chances for IFR ceilings
to return by 06Z at all sites. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The surface frontal boundary that has been plaguing our region
for quite a while now is hung up just north of coastal MS and
basically running right through HBG. Model consensus is insistent
this boundary will make good progress north today as a warm front,
but long experience with predicting movement of this front
informs a forecast decision to not get too aggressive with
northward movement. But even with that in mind, there is high
confidence locations from MEI...to JAN...to HEZ (and points south)
will break well out into the 70s by the afternoon with high
levels of moisture to trigger MLCAPE values easily up to the
neighborhood of 1000 j/kg. Farther north, the gradient of
temperatures will be quite tight from north to south and still
some locations in the Arklamiss Delta (such as GLH) will probably
fail to reach 60 degrees.

This temperature contrast alluded to above is driving a strong
southwest to northeast upper jet just northwest of the region with
impressive northward warmth and moisture advection at 850 mb
aimed up toward the Arklamiss Delta. The baroclinic zone aloft
here, along with the other mentioned factors, continues to spur
heavy rains and embedded thunderstorms streaming across the
northwestern quarter of zones. These areas (and points to the east
down the highway 82 corridor) are very saturated due to rains the
past several days and have little tolerance for more heavy rain,
which is exactly what they are still getting right now from
Winnsboro LA to Grenada MS and points northwest, where some flash
flood warnings continue. Training heavy rainfall will try to focus
a little farther northwest through today and tonight, but the
threat for flooding is still enough to keep the inherited flash
flood watch in effect through Saturday for northern and
northwestern zones going. The highest risk for flooding will be
getting a bit more confined toward the Arklamiss Delta today and
tonight when the SIGNIFICANT flooding risk will be focused in the
HWO and graphics. Farther south, it will be hard to rule out some
locally torrential downpours through Saturday causing flooding
issues and thus the LIMITED flood risk for much of the rest of the
area will be kept going.

But, overall, expect the focus in our region to be gradually
transitioning more toward severe weather potential, especially on
Saturday into Saturday evening (and especially north of the I-20
corridor). This afternoon into this evening, the building
instability (mentioned in the first paragraph) will also present
some, but only MARGINAL, severe threat, primarily along and west
of the I-55 corridor. There is definitely a question mark as to
how much intense thunderstorm activity will actually develop with
access to good low level instability owing to generally weak
forcing this afternoon (and a bit of dry air in the 850 to 700 MB
layer) over central and southern zones. However, if deep
convection can manifest (that is rooted near the surface) in these
areas then there will be plenty of deep layer shear to organize
supercell structures. Good news is that low level shear this
afternoon will not be enough for more than a low end tornado
threat. We anticipate the risk for isolated severe storms will
become more confined to the Arklamiss Delta by late this evening
into the overnight hours. All this will be mentioned in the HWO
and graphics.

The warm front that will be trying to push north through the
region today will definitely be getting entirely north of the
region later tonight into very early Saturday. This will, of
course, allow warmth, moisture, and related instability to quickly
work north through the entire region in advance of the southern
fringe of a potent disturbance aloft set to come into the region
midday Saturday through Saturday evening. Surface low pressure
associated with this system will be well to the northwest of the
region, but low pressure will be deepening rapidly and ensuring
pressure falls well away from the center (and into our region).
Dropping pressures in the low levels will help develop high low
level shear (especially across the northwest half of the region)
in conjunction with high deep layer shear caused by
west/southwest 500 mb winds of 60 to 70 kts. Hope has been that
model consensus would trend farther north with favorable severe
weather parameter space associated with this event, but latest
model runs have shown this not to be the case. Considering the
above, the Storm Prediction Center has slightly expanded the
ENHANCED severe risk (including the risk for significant severe
weather and strong tornadoes) a little farther south into north-
central and northwestern zones with a SLIGHT RISK elsewhere
(except in portions of SE MS where the highest risk is currently
only at a MARGINAL level).

The main timing window of severe weather potential on Saturday
still seems to be from midday through early evening, although
some risk could begin a little earlier in far northwestern zones
and end a little later in far eastern zones. A mixed mode of
severe weather is anticipated with at least a broken squall line
probably taking shape across a large portion of the region by late
in the day into the evening. But the highest severe potential
will likely come from isolated supercells that will probably form
in advance of any sort of MCS and the risk of these supercells
will be highest in north-central and northwestern zones. In
addition to the tornado threat, there will also be a risk for
damaging wind gusts and large hail. The HWO and graphics will be
updated to represent details of timing and impacts.

The cold front coming in the wake of the storms late Saturday
night will usher in more seasonable and dry air for Sunday and
Monday. There is a still a good deal of uncertainty after Monday
and going through the rest of next work week because of poor model
consensus. That said, the more reliable (at that time range) European
model continues to be largely dry through most of the long range
and chances of rain were kept relatively tame. Expect temperatures
to remain generally near seasonal values in this time frame,
although there will be opportunity for persistent colder air to
our northwest to spill in before the official forecast period is
over. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  69  79  48 /  28  54  79  59
Meridian      77  68  80  50 /  42  31  62  70
Vicksburg     69  66  78  46 /  34  69  87  30
Hattiesburg   80  69  81  53 /  20  24  57  57
Natchez       76  69  77  47 /  35  60  85  31
Greenville    56  55  74  44 /  87  90  90  22
Greenwood     63  60  77  45 /  71  80  89  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

NF/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-034-035-231115-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Washington-Humphreys-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today through tonight, several rounds of heavy rainfall will
likely result in widespread flash flooding and possible
significant flash flooding. Many roads could be flooded or
closed, and some structural flooding and water rescues are
likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ030>033-231115-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
producing heavy rainfall will likely result in areas of flash
flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed, and some
structures may be potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

LAZ007>009-MSZ036-037-040-041-231115-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-
Sharkey-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today through tonight, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
producing heavy rainfall will likely result in areas of flash
flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed, and some
structures may be potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047-048-053-059-231115-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Claiborne-Jefferson-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today through tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy
rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible,  especially
in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with
visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday.

MSZ042-043-231115-
Yazoo-Madison MS-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today through tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy
rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible,  especially
in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ038-039-044>046-231115-
Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy
rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible,  especially
in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

MSZ049-054-061-062-231115-
Rankin-Copiah-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with
visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will
make localized flash flooding possible,  especially in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ050>052-055>058-063>066-231115-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with
visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will
make localized flash flooding possible,  especially in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

MSZ060-231115-
Adams-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with
visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday.

MSZ072>074-231115-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with
visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*FOG*
Significant...Widespread dense fog with visibilities a quarter
 mile or less are likely.
Elevated...Areas of dense fog with visibilities a quarter mile
 or less are likely.
Limited...Patchy dense fog is possible with visibilities
 potentially down to a quarter of a mile.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
803 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ITTA BENA               33.49N 90.32W
02/22/2019                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE HOUSE FLOODED IN ITTA BENA.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
814 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW TIE PLANT          33.67N 89.85W
02/22/2019                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CO RD 286 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. MUD
            SLIDES HAVE ALSO OCCURRED HERE WITH DEBRIS
            ACROSS PART OF THE ROAD.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
818 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S TEOC                33.55N 90.06W
02/22/2019                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUD SLIDE DEBRIS ACROSS 186 ALONG WITH OTHER
            FLOODING IN THE AREA.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W GEESLIN CORNER      33.82N 89.92W
02/22/2019  M9.24 INCH       GRENADA            MS   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KMSGRENA8. TOTAL
            SINCE FEBRUARY 17, INCLUDING 5.27 INCHES
            SINCE FEBRUARY 21. RAIN WAS STILL FALLING.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
822 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW BERCLAIR           33.52N 90.42W
02/22/2019  M10.91 INCH      LEFLORE            MS   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KMSITTAB2. TOTAL
            SINCE FEBRUARY 17, INCLUDING 6.96 INCHES
            SINCE FEBRUARY 21. RAIN WAS STILL FALLING.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
823 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW INDIANOLA         33.45N 90.66W
02/22/2019  M9.92 INCH       SUNFLOWER          MS   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KMISINDIA4. TOTAL
            SINCE FEBRUARY 17, INCLUDING 5.15 INCHES
            SINCE FEBRUARY 21. RAIN WAS STILL FALLING.

&&

NF