Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
321 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will continue until around 9pm with
damaging wind and heavy rain the main threats, but hail cannot be
ruled out of any storm. It'll be cooler tonight and Saturday with
temperatures tonight dropping back into the 50s and then rising
into the mid 70s to low 80s. Another chance for showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm exists Sunday as a front drops into the
area from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Low level moisture in the form of light fog and a stratus deck to
start the day was able to be eroded, but surface dew points were
able to be realized around 70F just ahead of the front. 1500 to
2500 J/kg SBCAPE has been able to move in and an 850 mb jet
progged between 30 and 35 is expected to pass through this evening
allowing gusty winds and around 25 to 30 kts of shear for
thunderstorms to work with. There is some looping to the lower
portion of the hodograph, but it seems to be on the low end to get
rotating cells. Soundings indicate low level moisture will be
prevalent and low level lapse rates will be able to surpass 8
C/km. PWATs will be able to rise above 1.75 inch allowing any
thunderstorms that do form to produce heavy rain and it appears to
be a wet microburst type setup again with close to 900 J/kg of
DCAPE. With mid level lapse rates only just over 6 C/km think the
hail threat is lower than the wind threat because of how moist the
profile looks.

The cold front pushes through during the evening hours tonight
allowing cooler and drier air to come through for Saturday with
highs expected to rise into the mid 70s to the low 80s and sunny
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Behind Saturday's nicer day, another weaker theta-e return moves
in on Sunday. It is interesting to see that the ECMWF is a little
bit later with the moisture return bring it into the area and
stalling it across the area as opposed to pushing the moisture
return through fairly quickly like on the GFS with a backdoor
front type signal. Generally, these backdoor front type scenarios
offer lacking support for thunderstorms as easterly winds
generally eat the instability across the region. So, depending on
the timing of the frontal passage with the front pushing through a
theta-e surge, thunderstorms may initially be possible but as the
front stalls across the area, would lean more towards shower
coverage and a shrinking threat from thunderstorms.

Heading towards Tuesday, a cyclonic wave break occurring over the
West Coast of the CONUS will drive a large ridge over the center
of the CONUS, all the while, allowing blocking to develop in the
Atlantic Ocean on the downslope side of the building ridge. This
allows high pressure to settle over the Northeast and affect us
with cooler and drier air on its western periphery. This is as a
result of those aforementioned easterly winds keeping us cooler on
Tuesday and Wednesday and, depending on the timing of the next
moisture surge, Thursday than what would normally be expected
within a ridge of that magnitude.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Main TAF focus will be KFWA where convection is expected to
develop near the site and move east. Confidence on impacts to the
site remain low, warranting no more than the VCTS for the moment.
If anything occurs, it should only be for a 30 to maybe 60 minute
period. Winds will eventually shift to the west behind the front
with VFR conditions prevailing. Threat for convection is almost
zero at KSBN with any potential being right at the start of the
period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...Fisher

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