Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
322 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Showers and storms will be possible this evening with damaging
winds and heavy rain being the main threats. Then, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon and
evenings over the next several days. Temperature-wise, highs will
be around 80 up until the weekend with highs into the 80s during
the weekend and into next week. The humidity will also return for
this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

An area of cyclonic flow develops across the region and an area
of low level convergence across the forecast area coupled with low
decent level lapse rates and CAPE values over 1500 J/kg along
with 0-6 km bulk shear over 30 kts will provide an environment
capable of producing strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
this afternoon ahead of sunset. With DCAPE between 800 and 1000
J/kg and inverted-V profiles, wind damage would be the primary
threat along with locally heavy rain. With surface vorticity and
some low level MLCAPE, a brief funnel cannot be ruled out despite
limited low-level turning in the hodograph as evidenced by lacking
SRH.

Behind the chance for showers and thunderstorms, we'll have to
watch for some low stratus to develop. Models are indicating the
potential for fog to form with favorable cross-over temperatures
and light winds overnight, but cross-sections are not as moist as
one would expect for fog development so will hold off on fog
mention for now. The most likely place for stratus development
appears to be in areas south of US-30 by Thursday morning where
models are picking up better low level dew point depression
values.

Then we'll have to watch the afternoon on Thursday for another
chance at showers and thunderstorms as the region of cyclonic flow
shifts to our east. This would make the southward translation of
an instability trough possible allowing portions of our northeast
to see a storm or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

The long range period will continue to be characterized by blocking
in the Pacific as atmospheric wave breaking allows for the wave
train in the Pacific to essentially stall out and for a ridge to
build in the East Pacific.

Closer to home, Friday appears to start the day dry until a
theta-e surge associated with a northwestward traversing shortwave
can bring in some cloudiness before sunset. There still is some
variance about the location for showers and storms overnight
Friday, if at all, so will cap PoPs at chance for now. The
blocking in the Pacific likely isn't helping model predictability
this weekend with the thunderstorm chances, but a shortwave is
able to traverse to the northwest from the Central Plains towards
the Great Lakes and has the looks of being a convective complex
with it being on the edge of the low level jet, accompanied by
large scale convergence and traversing along the gradient of
instability. As a result, will continue the chance for showers and
storms later Saturday in an area closer to the forcing. The
aforementioned blocking allows the trough in the Western US to
build somewhat off the East Pacific ridge from late week in the
weekend. This allows a trough associated with a low in
southwestern Canada to attempt a negative tilt. With the ECMWF and
GFS ensemble more limited precipitation-wise than the GFS-op, am
more apt to side with the drier solution for Sunday. Still, can't
rule out an afternoon shower or storm within an environment with
CAPE over 1500 J/kg, shear near 30 kts closer to the lake, temps
in the upper 80s to 90 and dew points in the low 70s.

For the early work week next week, expect afternoon chances for
showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 80s as the trough in
the west lifts north and the subtropical high builds into the
south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

VIS satellite imagery depicting SCT/BKN diurnal cu over the area
this afternoon with cigs primarily VFR with a few MVFR noted on
17Z obs. Diffuse frontal boundary with weak frontal wave
continues to meander over the area and will provide focus for
potential convection later this afternoon as KIWX radar indicating
a few cells already developing just south of KAOH. Uncertainty
remains in extent of aerial coverage so plan for now is to stay
with VCSH and continue to monitor/amend as needed. Other concern
will be overnight and early Thursday morning as forecast
soundings indicating saturated boundary layer beneath weak low
level inversion which will bring potential for IFR cigs/vsbys
near daybreak...especially for KFWA where more residual boundary
layer moisture already in place.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...JAL

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-151930-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 /223 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight with
a marginal risk for severe weather. Damaging winds and locally heavy
rain are expected to be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, and
then
a chance for showers and thunderstorms between Saturday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-151930-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms at times between Saturday and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             CONANT                  40.72N 84.28W
08/14/2019  E0.70 INCH       ALLEN              OH   PUBLIC

&&

GH

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