Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Showers and storms are possible through the late evening. Some of
these storms may be severe with hail and damaging winds. Cool and
dry conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday but additional
rain is expected thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Continue to focus primarily on severe chances this afternoon and
into the late evening. Our CWA continues to destabilize this
afternoon with surface temps around 80F and relatively cold temps
aloft. Surface dewpoints continue to run a few degrees lower than
guidance but excellent low/midlevel lapse rates still yielding
around 2K J/kg 0-1km MLCAPE per SPC/RAP mesoanalysis. Still waiting
on a trigger though with general AVA/subsidence/capping over IN.
Elevated WAA supporting convection across Michigan but this forcing
remains just north of our CWA. Guidance suggests enough heating late
this afternoon to erode lingering cap (particularly NE) and old
outflow/differential heating boundaries/lake breeze could generate a
few isolated storms during the afternoon/early evening as suggested
by the RAP. If this occurs...there will be a marginal severe risk
for wind and hail due to instability but storms will remain "pulsey"
given complete lack of deep layer shear over our area this afternoon
and little/no forcing for organization.

Much better forcing (and shear) arrives later this evening with
approach of fairly vigorous shortwave currently entering northern IL.
Associated cold front won't cross our area until 01-05Z tonight. Two
areas for concern with this later activity. One...potential for a
few isolated storms to develop ahead of the main front. Similar to
this afternoon...this would tap into better diurnal instability but
lack better forcing/shear. Two...with primary shortwave/cold front.
Diurnal timing is not favorable but healthy midlevel CVA and lapse
rates aloft could maintain stronger updrafts into the late evening.
Hail and damaging winds would be the primary concern. Very wet
antecedent conditions always lead to some flooding concern with
thunderstorms but expect storms will move fairly quickly and remain
more on the scattered side. Bottomline...several lower-end chances
for severe storms through the late evening across much of the CWA.
The risk is certainly there but delineating any particular location
and exact timing is difficult in this scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Sun/Mon/Tue still looking dry and pleasant with brief period of
highly amplified flow leaving our region in cool/dry NNW flow.
Incoming airmass is relatively chilly with 850mb temps around 0C
across MI and only mid-single digits over Indiana. This yields highs
in the mid/upper 60s and lows Mon morning near 40F. Will still
likely be a fair amount of cu on Sunday and even an outside chance
for a shower in our far east with trough axis swinging through the
eastern Lakes but will hold with silent 10 PoP.

Our reprieve will be short-lived though. Westerly flow returns high
theta-e plume to the area Tuesday night with an upper low meandering
into the region by the weekend. This leads to several periods of
rain and cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Atmosphere becoming very unstable but still capped. Area of storms
have moved by to our north where less capping and better forcing
exists. Cannot rule out an isolated tsra through the afternoon
near terminals but chances too low for inclusion. Better chances
arrive this evening ahead of cold front and stronger forcing
aloft. Expect better coverage with scattered tsra at that time and
made only minor adjustments to timing, mainly pushing start time
back a bit. Front passes bringing end to pcpn and northwest winds
for Sunday. Models bringing MVFR cigs into KFWA so added a group
for this overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Lashley

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-021915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 /209 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms through late evening. Some of
these storms may be severe with hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Dangerous swimming conditions are possible Sunday along the
southeast shore of Lake Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-021915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
531 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             3 N GOSHEN              41.62N 85.83W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       ELKHART            IN   PUBLIC

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
534 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             3 NW GOSHEN             41.60N 85.88W
06/01/2019  M1.00 INCH       ELKHART            IN   PUBLIC

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
548 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             1 W LAGRANGE            41.64N 85.44W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       LAGRANGE           IN   PUBLIC

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             LIBERTY CENTER          41.44N 84.01W
06/01/2019  E0.70 INCH       HENRY              OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
553 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             LAGRANGE                41.64N 85.42W
06/01/2019  E0.75 INCH       LAGRANGE           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             2 N NAPOLEON            41.42N 84.13W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MCD