River Flood Warning 246, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
713 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Wet weather will give way to a dry afternoon Friday, but by
Saturday afternoon rain chances will return. Once the work week
commences, chances for rain and thunderstorms will be in the
forecast for the majority of the period, with a front setting up
somewhere in the vicinity of central Indiana and upper waves
interacting with it to bring more rain to the area. Temperatures
will start below normal but climb above normal by around
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Early this morning and today/...

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

At 3 am the radar loop shows an area of light to moderate rain
over eastern Indiana continuing to move off to the east, and an
area of light rain showers overspreading the northwestern
counties moving toward the southeast. Temperatures were in the low
60s southeast to upper 40s northwest, with winds out of the
northwest around 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 19 to 25 mph.

The area of rain over the eastern counties should move east of the
area over the next few hours. Meanwhile the lighter showers over
the northwestern counties will move across the forecast area. By
12z these showers should still be over at least the eastern
counties, if not stretching back to central parts of the area.
Over the first few hours of the today period these showers will be
moving through, but by mid to late morning the rain will be off to
the east and upper ridging will start building in and bring dry
conditions with it. Wind gusts in the wake of the surface low
pulling away will run around 25 to 35 mph, with a few 40 mph
gusts possible, and this will be the case through the daylight
hours.

High temperatures should reach into the lower to middle 60s. While
there will be some cold advection occurring, clearing will also be
moving in and this should allow temperatures to climb a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Mostly clear skies tonight will allow for low temperatures to
drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Right now doesn't look like
temperatures will dip enough for frost to be a problem. Saturday
an upper wave will approach from the west along with a surface
low, and this will bring chances for rain into the area by the
afternoon hours. Right now the best chances appear to be focused
across the northern half or so of the forecast area, closest to
the upper wave. Only a little elevated instability showing up in
the forecast models, so will leave thunder out at this time. The
surface system looks like it will be relatively quick-moving, so
that by Sunday morning the area will be dry once again.
Temperatures Sunday will remain in the 50s in the wake of the cold
frontal passage late Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

A rather active extended period is expected across central Indiana
as a surface low traverses the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be possible from Monday through Thursday with the
thunderstorms subsiding a bit by Thursday night. Meanwhile,
temperatures through the period will be a bit below normal across
the northern third of the forecast area, while the remaining two-
thirds of central Indiana will generally be at or slightly above
normal depending on placement of a frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/12Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 706 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

A few lingering rain showers will continue at KIND through Fri
13Z, but conditions are at VFR levels there, and the rain will be
ending within the next hour. Elsewhere, remaining TAF sites are at
VFR, except for KHUF where some MVFR ceilings are lingering. KHUF
should return to VFR, too, though fairly quickly this morning. VFR
will then be the prevailing flight category through the end of the
TAF period. The other area of focus will be the strong northwest
winds. Sustained wind speeds will be between 15 to 20 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts as late as Sat 06Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
505 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-270915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
505 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Northwesterly wind gusts of 40 mph are possible at times
through the day. Some moderate river flooding will continue into
the afternoon on the Mississinewa near Ridgeville, and nuisance
flooding could continue through much of central Indiana through at
least mid morning.

Hazards: Gusty winds. Ponding of water on roads and water on river
area roads.

Timing: Gusty winds should dissipate by around sunset. Moderate
flooding should end by early afternoon if not before.

Discussion: A low pressure system to the east of the area will keep a
tight gradient across central Indiana leading to a blustery day.
Rainfall yesterday and early this morning is leading to nuisance
flooding across much of central Indiana, with moderate flooding
occurring in the Ridgeville area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: There are chances for thunderstorms from Monday through
Thursday. No severe storms are expected at this time, but lightning
is a threat from any storm that forms. Heavy rainfall that leads to
flooding could occur as well.

Discussion: A frontal system will approach and then stall near the
area, allowing a series of upper waves to interact with it bringing
rain and thunderstorm chances to the area. Should rain develop
repeatedly over the same area, more moderate flooding could develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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