Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Lincoln, IL

448 
WWUS53 KILX 260519
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1219 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

ILC039-107-260545-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190526T0545Z/
Logan-De Witt-
1219 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND DE WITT COUNTIES...

At 1219 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hartsburg to near Lincoln to 6 miles northwest 
of Mount Pulaski, moving east at 40 mph. Additional strong storms 
were located near Waynesville, also moving east at 40 mph. 

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Clinton, Atlanta, Wapella, Waynesville, Kenney, Beason,
Lawndale, Weldon Springs State Park, Lane, Clinton Lake Dam, Midland
City, Rowell and Hallsville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 122 and 141.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 8927 4028 8879 4006 8882 4005 8914
      4011 8945 4024 8942 4029 8938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 274DEG 34KT 4026 8940 4019 8937 4010 8934 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Geelhart

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1002 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

A developing band of convective precipitation is moving across the
Mississippi River and into northwestern and westernIllinoiss.
Current radar has this system sliding into Knox, Fulton, and
Schuyler right now, and will continue to shift eastward while
growing toward the south over the next several hours. Strong to
severe storms are expected with these storms, to include: damaging
winds, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. Another
larger system will slide northeast out of the central Plains
overnight, arriving in the Midwest early Sunday morning. This is
expected to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region
by daybreak.

This is all riding just south of a frontal boundary. With warm,
moist air filtering into the region overnight, these storms are
forecast to hold steady. The possibility of a downstream watch is
likely, as storms continue to hold strength.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Synoptic pattern remains unchanged from the past several
days...with a large upper-level ridge anchored over the Deep
South and a pronounced trough in place west of the Rockies.
Central Illinois continues to be located in the prevailing
southwesterlies between these two features, resulting in periodic
showers and thunderstorms. While 20z/3pm radar mosaic is clear
across the KILX CWA, the next round of convection is expected to
begin developing upstream across eastern Kansas into northern
Missouri over the next couple of hours. A slow-moving cold front
interacting with a moderately unstable/sheared environment will
trigger scattered thunderstorms across this area...with the
storms gradually working into the Illinois River Valley by mid
evening. Convection will become more widespread overnight into
Sunday morning as a short-wave trough currently over New Mexico
approaches from the southwest and provides additional lift. It
appears an organized cluster of storms may develop ahead of this
wave toward dawn Sunday, then track E/SE into Indiana by midday
Sunday. Have therefore increased PoPs to likely/categorical
everywhere north of I-70 late tonight into Sunday morning. Once
this complex exits, scattered thunderstorms will re-develop along
the residual outflow boundary during the late afternoon and
evening. Exact location of this boundary is uncertain, but model
consensus suggests it will be south of I-70. Have therefore
focused highest PoPs Sunday afternoon across the far SE CWA. Total
rainfall tonight through Sunday will be highest in a corridor from
Rushville/Macomb eastward toward Bloomington where 1 to 1.25 will
be likely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Short-wave ridging in the wake of the Sunday storm complex will
lead to a warm/dry evening across central Illinois before
scattered convection once again develops late Sunday night into
Monday morning along a warm front lifting northward through the
area. After a few morning storms, much of the convection will
shift into northern Illinois and the Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon as SE CONUS ridge builds northward into the region. A
period of very warm/dry weather appears likely from Monday
afternoon through much of Tuesday as the ridge shunts the
convection N/NW of Illinois. Highs both days will climb well into
the 80s, with a few spots across the southern half of the CWA
reaching 90 degrees.

The western U.S. trough will eject E/NE next week, eventually
flattening the upper ridge and pushing a cold front through
Illinois. Models still do not agree exactly on the timing of this
process, but consensus suggests a round of showers/storms Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, then again Wednesday night into
Thursday morning before the system finally pushes through the
region. After the cold front passes, high temperatures will drop
back into the 70s Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Thunderstorms should continue to develop over northern Missouri
and southern Iowa along a frontal zone and spread eastward into
the central IL area this evening, eventually becoming widespread
overnight as a disturbance aloft moves into the area from the
southwest, promoting predominant rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Although timing continues to be somewhat uncertain,
have VCTS in TAFs starting 3-5Z, and predominant SHRA starting
9-10Z. As the disturbance moves east of the area midday Sunday,
shower activity should diminish, resulting in chances of
precipitation too low for mention after 18Z. Predominantly VFR
cigs/vsbys through the period, although isolated IFR possible
thunderstorms. Winds becoming WSW 10 kts or less early this
evening. Strong gusty winds possible, however, in thunderstorms.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

ILZ027>031-037-038-261100-
Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
314 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, but
should become more numerous tonight. A few storms later tonight
and overnight may briefly be strong or severe, but a widespread
severe weather threat is not expected. However, areas of heavier
rain may result in some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
through Tuesday night. While isolated strong to severe storms are
possible on Monday, the best chance of any severe weather is
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River through
the period. However, flooding along the Spoon River should
subside around mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ036-040>042-047>051-261100-
Cass-Fulton-Logan-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-
314 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, but
should become more numerous tonight. A few storms later tonight
and overnight may briefly be strong or severe, but a widespread
severe weather threat is not expected. However, areas of heavier
rain may result in some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Major flooding will continue along much of the Illinois River
through the end of the month.

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
through Tuesday night. The best chance of any severe weather is
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061-261100-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Macon-Moultrie-
Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
314 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, but
should become more numerous tonight. A few storms later tonight
and overnight may briefly be strong or severe, but a widespread
severe weather threat is not expected. However, areas of heavier
rain may result in some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms through Tuesday
night. A few of the storms Monday afternoon and evening may be
strong, as well as on Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-261100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
314 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, but
should become more numerous tonight. A few storms later tonight
and overnight may briefly be strong or severe, but a widespread
severe weather threat is not expected. However, areas of heavier
rain may result in some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Sunday, and Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Some of the storms may be strong.

Minor flooding will continue along the Wabash and Little Wabash
Rivers into the middle of the week. However, flooding on the
lower Embarras River should subside Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required late this afternoon into early
evening.

Auten

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             IPAVA                   40.35N 90.32W
05/25/2019  E0.88 INCH       FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEWISTOWN               40.40N 90.16W
05/25/2019  E60 MPH          FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1124 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREEN VALLEY            40.41N 89.64W
05/25/2019  M65 MPH          TAZEWELL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOPEDALE                40.42N 89.42W
05/25/2019  M62 MPH          TAZEWELL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANITO                  40.42N 89.78W
05/25/2019                   MASON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN TOWN

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S TALLULA             39.92N 89.94W
05/25/2019                   MENARD             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

JRP