Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lincoln, IL

841 
WWUS53 KILX 230630
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
130 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

ILC019-039-113-147-230645-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190523T0645Z/
Piatt-De Witt-McLean-Champaign-
130 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PIATT...NORTHEASTERN DE WITT...SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN
AND NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES...

At 129 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Chatsworth, or 10 miles north of Gibson City, moving northeast at 65
mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. Brief tornados are possible with this 
         storm.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Rantoul, Farmer City, Fisher, Gifford, Mansfield, Saybrook, Ludlow,
Bellflower, Cropsey, Anchor, Foosland and Dewey.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 248 and 257.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 158 and 169.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for central and
east central Illinois.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 8868 4062 8858 4061 8846 4040 8846
      4040 8794 4033 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 240DEG 58KT 4061 8831 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Area of storms continuing to develop and move into Central IL
mostly NW of the IL River valley this evening. Ongoing potential
severe weather the main concern, and only minor updates to the
forecast are required at this point.
To the severe threat, an area of instability out ahead of the
advancing storms providing a little bit of fuel...when able to
lift through the mixed layer cap. Plenty of shear in place, bulk
shear in the 50-60kts, to assist in the development and counter
any suppression of the storm genesis. Threat will remain in place
for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes through the evening in
the watch area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Although not much evidence in wind field, nice moisture
discontinuity evident across northwest Missouri into western
Wisconsin with dew points generally in the 50s and temps in the
70s to the southeast and 40s to near 50 dewpoints and temps in the
50s and 60s northwest. This boundary will shift southeast in
response to surface low over southwest Minnesota pulling quickly
out to the northeast. As the boundary moves southeast it will
encounter an increasing unstable environment.

One missing factor that is currently not evident is convergence
along the discontinuity. 12z models suggest a low-level jet will
develop this evening and the interaction of the jet with the
boundary will be sufficient to focus moisture and enable the
development of convection which will tap into the instability.
The LLJ will also provide a good source of shear producing
effective SRH around 300 m2/s2 this evening.

The intensity of the convection and the speed at which the
boundary can move southeast overnight depends on the strength and
organization of the cold pool. Initial threat this evening to the
northwest of the Illinois River will likely be large hail,
localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. As the system
becomes better organized the main threat of straight-line damaging
winds will become the primary threat. Late tonight the instability
should diminish and the storms should weaken.

Models do differ on the level of organization and therefore how
far the line gets overnight. This will have a bearing on whether
any residual threat remains for Thursday. If the front stalls as
expected in the southeast forecast area some threat of storms
refiring in the afternoon south of I-70 will be possible. If a
cold pool doesn't push the storms southeast, development on
Thursday could be further north across the heart of the forecast
area. Location of the boundary will also have implications as to
the temperatures tomorrow. May be a significant gradient between
upper 70s north to approaching 90 in the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Overall pattern changes little into next week with occasional
waves riding along the downstream side of the long-wave trough
over the Great Basin and southwest U.S. Models in decent agreement
with the general pattern. With the boundary oscillating across
the area in response to the waves. Blend of medium-range models
keep at least a chance of rain in some part of the forecast area
through the period. WPC 7-day QPF suggests highest rain threat
will be in the Illinois Valley where 3 to 4 inches of rain will be
possible between now and mid-week next week.

With split flow and northern stream remaining mostly north of the
Canadian border, temps should be above normal for the end of May.
There is some indication that phasing may be possible by the end
of the period and some cooler air may advect into Illinois, but
the solution envelope is all over the place as evidenced by the
latest 12z GEFS suite showing anything from mid-80s to mid-60s
next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

A line of severe thunderstorms is tracking east across central
Illinois. The strongest storms will impact DEC, BMI, and CMI
through 07Z to 09Z, then additional scattered embedded
thunderstorms will be possible for another hour or two before
activity settles southeast of the terminals. Winds will veer to
westerly behind the thunderstorms tonight, then eventually veer to
the north and northeast Thursday evening as surface ridge builds
into the Upper Midwest. After the storms overnight, fair weather
and VFR conditions should prevail the remainder of the forecast
period, but additional thunderstorms are expected Thursday night
beyond the current TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-231100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-
Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
309 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is an enhanced risk for severe weather tonight.
Thunderstorms will develop across northern Missouri late this
afternoon...then will spread into the Illinois River Valley this
evening. Given the moderately unstable and highly sheared airmass
in place, some of the storms will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. A few tornadoes will be possible as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River from
Henry to Peoria...while major flooding continues near Havana and
downstream from Beardstown through at least early next week.

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Friday through Tuesday. Some of these storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening...particularly between
7pm and midnight.

ILZ038-042>045-051>053-231100-
Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Logan-Macon-McLean-Piatt-Sangamon-
309 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk for severe weather tonight. Thunderstorms
will develop across northern Missouri late this afternoon...then
will spread into the Illinois River Valley this evening. The
storms will then shift eastward to the I-55 corridor toward
midnight. Given the moderately unstable and highly sheared
airmass in place, some of the storms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Friday through Tuesday. Some of these storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight...particularly between
10pm and 3am.

ILZ046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-231100-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-
Jasper-Lawrence-Moultrie-Richland-Shelby-Vermilion-
309 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Severe weather is
not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Friday through Tuesday. Some of these storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely through tonight.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     LITERBERRY              39.85N 90.20W
05/22/2019  E60 MPH          MORGAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1209 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 S ASHLAND             39.83N 90.01W
05/23/2019  E70 MPH          MORGAN             IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOSS OF POWER IN TOWN

1200 AM     HAIL             4 S ASHLAND             39.83N 90.01W
05/23/2019  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1229 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     TSTM WND GST     SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
05/23/2019  M67 MPH          SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

&&

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SHERMAN                 39.89N 89.61W
05/23/2019                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES DOWN AT PRINCE AND PARKWAY DR.

&&

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1251 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
05/23/2019                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

&&

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SW SPRINGFIELD          39.78N 89.64W
05/23/2019                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES BENT, 1-2 INCH TREE LIMBS AT CHATHAM ROAD AND
            VETERANS PKWY.

&&

HJS