Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Lincoln, IL

823 
WWUS53 KILX 211709
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILC137-167-211730-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-190621T1730Z/
Sangamon-Morgan-
1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN SANGAMON AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 1207 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near New Berlin to near Girard moving east-southeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham, Auburn, Pawnee, New Berlin, Waverly, Divernon, Loami, 
Thayer, Glenarm and Lowder.

This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 77 and 91.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 9003 3974 8954 3952 8954 3952 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 274DEG 33KT 3968 8995 3942 8982 3911 9010 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Miller

412 
WWUS53 KILX 211730
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILC137-167-211739-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-190621T1730Z/
Sangamon-Morgan-
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANGAMON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southeast Sangamon County until 130 pm CDT.

LAT...LON 3973 9003 3974 8954 3952 8954 3952 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 263DEG 41KT 3971 8963 3945 8951 3914 8979 

$$

Miller

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Updated the forecast a couple times this morning due to severe
thunderstorm watch over sw 7 counties til 4 pm today, and for
quicker movement of strong to severe convection into central IL
late this morning and afternoon. A severe thunderstorm warning
just issued for Scott and Morgan counties until 1145 am.

A mature MCS over northern MO, southern IA and ne KS was
associated with a large area of convection with the leading edge
of the strong to severe convection moving into west central IL at
11 am, just west of Schuyler, Cass, Morgan and Scott counties.
These thunderstorms were moving east around 50 mph and tracking
near 1 hour faster than the latest HRRR model. SPC mesoanalysis
page shows strong 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-65 kts over sw IL
including sw CWA while MU CAPES were 1000-3000 j/kg over sw IL,
highest near the MS river in sw IL. Surface map shows 998 mb low
pressure over sw KS with its warm front through southern MO and sw
KY into mid TN.

SPC day1 outlook has enhanced risk of severe storms sw of I-74
late this morning and afternoon, with slight risk along and ne of
I-74. Areas sw of I-74 have 30% risk of damaging winds and 2% risk
of tornadoes, while areas from I-74 ne have 15% risk of damaging
winds. There is a 5% risk of large hail across CWA. Strong to
severe convection to race eastward across central IL next few
hours, reaching eastern IL by mid afternoon and far se IL by late
afternoon, though isolated showers/thunderstorms possible in se IL
during early and mid afternoon. Strong wind fields supports
higher threat of damaging winds with these storms, especially sw
of I-74. More convection to expected to develop with low level jet
over CWA by late evening and overnight, with severe wx threat
again expected. Locally heavy rains also possible with
thunderstorms as WPC has slight risk of excessive rainfall over
areas sw of I-74 thru tonight, and shifts into areas from I-74
north on Sat/Sat night. Trimmed back highs a a bit this afternoon
due to widespread round of convection, with highs mid to upper 70s
central IL and lower 80s se of I-70 where convection arrives
during mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Well this mornings forecast was a little tough, as most models do
not have the best agreement for the developing MCS marching into
western Missouri. Some models indicate a northward swing through
Iowa, before beginning a SE dive through central Illinois, while
other models have a SE dive through west central and southern
Illinois, where moisture is more prevalent, or finally a straight
eastward path through central Illinois then diving SE into the
Ohio River Valley.

I went with the third option, as current radar indicates a
decreasing moisture field in SE Missouri and southern Illinois.
This should bring the convective system into the region late this
morning into midday. Approach time for the Illinois River Valley
will be near 17-18z, then tracking SE through the remainder of
the CWA through the afternoon. This could bring strong to severe
thunderstorms to the area today, as current Watches are being
issued into north central Missouri. Typically with these systems,
they gain strength overnight, with aid from the low-level jet
stream. As this continues tracking east, the area could go under a
Watch, but if that occurs, it will be later this morning.

Once this system slides through the area, unfortunately we will
not be done with showers and storms...this is only the start of
another wet pattern.

Temperatures will remain cooler today, as rainfall and cloud
coverage will inhibit sunshine from increasing ground temps.
Dewpoint temps will also begin to increase today, rolling in a
summer-like pattern to the region this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

As the weak upper level ridge shifts eastward Saturday, this will
open up the door for a large-scale Low pressure system in Canada
to begin driving the weather pattern again. Two Lows, a strong one
in Canada and a weaker one in the southern Plains will keep the
wet weather going throughout the weekend and into the start of
next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will filter into
the area, bringing upwards of 1.50-2.50 inches of additional
rainfall to already super-saturated soils.

The stronger Low will remain north of the area as it progresses
slowly eastward over the next several days. This will hold the
secondary Low is in the southern Plains for the weekend, lifting
warmer Gulf air to the region, and more moisture. As WAA is
brought into central Illinois Saturday, temps and dewpoints will
climb into the 80s and 70s, respectively. Heat index values are
forecast to climb into the mid and upper 90s Saturday, while
reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s Sunday.

Going into Monday, the main Low will lift north...allowing the
secondary Low to finally shift NE through the Midwest and into the
upper Great Lakes. The spigot will finally be shutoff Monday
evening, however temps will remain more on the seasonal side
throughout next week...along with the return of a drier weather
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

A couple different lines of thunderstorms are ongoing across
portions of MO, KS, and NE this morning and pushing east towards
Illinois. Evolution of these systems remain uncertain, however,
believe that the eastern line of storms will persist into central
Illinois late this morning and afternoon, quite possibly in a
weakening state with diminishing coverage. After these initial
waves of thunderstorms push through by around mid afternoon,
expect a window of dry weather before additional storms redevelop
nearby or overhead mid to late this evening and persist over the
area through the night. Outside of the influence of
thunderstorms, southeast winds will prevail through the period.
VFR ceilings today will lower to MVFR this evening, then IFR or
near IFR overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILZ036-040-041-047>052-221100-
Cass-Christian-Fulton-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-
1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A couple rounds of thunderstorms are likely through tonight. The
first round of storms will be late this morning and early
afternoon, and the second round of storms will be after dusk
tonight. There is an enhanced risk of severe storms today, with
the potential for widespread damaging winds. Isolated large hail
and tornadoes also possible. Heavy rain is also possible and could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River
from Havana downstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

Heat index values will approach 100 degrees on Saturday in areas
from Havana southward.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today, with the most likely
time frame between 11 am and 3 pm.

ILZ027>031-037-221100-
Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A couple rounds of thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
tonight. The first will be during early and mid afternoon, and the
second round will be late this evening into overnight. Some of
these storms will be severe, especially southwest of I-74, with
damaging winds the main concern. Isolated hail will also be
possible along with heavy rain that could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Minor flooding will continue or redevelop along portions of the
Illinois River from Henry through Peoria.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon, mainly from
noon to 4 pm today especially southwest of I-74.

ILZ038-042>046-053>057-061-221100-
Champaign-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-McLean-Moultrie-
Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A couple rounds of thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
tonight. There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon southwest of I-74 with a slight risk from I-74
northeast. Widespread damaging winds are the primary concern with
isolated large hail and isolated tornadoes possible mainly
southwest of I-74. Another round of strong to severe storms is
possible overnight. Heavy rain is also possible and could lead to
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon, especially from
2 pm to 6 pm.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A couple rounds of thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
tonight. There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from
mid afternoon into early evening. Widespread damaging winds are
the primary concern, though isolated tornadoes and large hail will
also be possible. Another round of strong to severe storms is
possible overnight. Heavy rain is also possible and could lead to
localized flash flooding.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed from mid afternoon into early
evening, mainly between 3 pm and 7 pm.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1110 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILZ036-040-041-047-211700-
Mason-Schuyler-Cass-Fulton-
1110 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FULTON...WESTERN
CASS...SCHUYLER AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

At 1110 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Augusta to near Buckhorn. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beardstown, Rushville, Astoria, Bluff Springs, Vermont, Ipava,
Arenzville, Littleton, Browning, Table Grove, Bernadotte, Smithfield,
Frederick, Huntsville, Camden, Ripley, Ray and Weinberg King State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4028 9091 4027 9045 4046 9045 4050 9029
      3988 9024 3988 9058 3992 9054 3998 9051
      3998 9060 4003 9061 4002 9063 4005 9068
      4008 9067 4008 9070 4011 9071 4011 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 244DEG 37KT 4029 9092 3989 9079

Miller