Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
629 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Well this mornings forecast was a little tough, as most models do
not have the best agreement for the developing MCS marching into
western Missouri. Some models indicate a northward swing through
Iowa, before beginning a SE dive through central Illinois, while
other models have a SE dive through west central and southern
Illinois, where moisture is more prevalent, or finally a straight
eastward path through central Illinois then diving SE into the
Ohio River Valley.

I went with the third option, as current radar indicates a
decreasing moisture field in SE Missouri and southern Illinois.
This should bring the convective system into the region late this
morning into midday. Approach time for the Illinois River Valley
will be near 17-18z, then tracking SE through the remainder of
the CWA through the afternoon. This could bring strong to severe
thunderstorms to the area today, as current Watches are being
issued into north central Missouri. Typically with these systems,
they gain strength overnight, with aid from the low-level jet
stream. As this continues tracking east, the area could go under a
Watch, but if that occurs, it will be later this morning.

Once this system slides through the area, unfortunately we will
not be done with showers and storms...this is only the start of
another wet pattern.

Temperatures will remain cooler today, as rainfall and cloud
coverage will inhibit sunshine from increasing ground temps.
Dewpoint temps will also begin to increase today, rolling in a
summer-like pattern to the region this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

As the weak upper level ridge shifts eastward Saturday, this will
open up the door for a large-scale Low pressure system in Canada
to begin driving the weather pattern again. Two Lows, a strong one
in Canada and a weaker one in the southern Plains will keep the
wet weather going throughout the weekend and into the start of
next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will filter into
the area, bringing upwards of 1.50-2.50 inches of additional
rainfall to already super-saturated soils.

The stronger Low will remain north of the area as it progresses
slowly eastward over the next several days. This will hold the
secondary Low is in the southern Plains for the weekend, lifting
warmer Gulf air to the region, and more moisture. As WAA is
brought into central Illinois Saturday, temps and dewpoints will
climb into the 80s and 70s, respectively. Heat index values are
forecast to climb into the mid and upper 90s Saturday, while
reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s Sunday.

Going into Monday, the main Low will lift north...allowing the
secondary Low to finally shift NE through the Midwest and into the
upper Great Lakes. The spigot will finally be shutoff Monday
evening, however temps will remain more on the seasonal side
throughout next week...along with the return of a drier weather
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

A couple different lines of thunderstorms are ongoing across
portions of MO, KS, and NE this morning and pushing east towards
Illinois. Evolution of these systems remain uncertain, however,
believe that the eastern line of storms will persist into central
Illinois late this morning and afternoon, quite possibly in a
weakening state with diminishing coverage. After these initial
waves of thunderstorms push through by around mid afternoon,
expect a window of dry weather before additional storms redevelop
nearby or overhead mid to late this evening and persist over the
area through the night. Outside of the influence of
thunderstorms, southeast winds will prevail through the period.
VFR ceilings today will lower to MVFR this evening, then IFR or
near IFR overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
846 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-221100-
Cass-Fulton-Mason-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
846 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A couple rounds of thunderstorms are likely today. The first will
be late this morning into early afternoon, and the second this
evening into tonight. There is an enhanced risk of severe weather,
with the potential for widespread damaging winds. Heavy rain is
also possible and could lead to localized flash flooding.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River
from Havana downstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

Heat index values will approach 100 degrees on Saturday in areas
from Havana southward.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon, with the most likely
time frame between noon and 4 pm.

A conference call for emergency managers and broadcast media will
be held at 10 am.

ILZ027>031-037-221100-
Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
846 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A couple rounds of thunderstorms are possible today. The first
will be late this morning into early afternoon, and the second
this evening into tonight. Some of these storms will be severe,
especially south of I-74, with damaging winds the main concern.
Heavy rain is also possible and could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Minor flooding will continue or redevelop along portions of the
Illinois River from Henry through Peoria.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon, with the most likely
time frame between noon and 4 pm.

A conference call for emergency managers and broadcast media will
be held at 10 am.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-221100-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
McLean-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion-
846 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Widespread damaging winds are the primary concern.
Another round of strong to severe storms is possible later
tonight. Heavy rain is also possible and could lead to localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening, with the
most likely time frame between 2 pm and 6 pm.

A conference call for emergency managers and broadcast media will
be held at 10 am.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
846 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Widespread damaging winds are the primary concern.
Another round of strong to severe storms is possible later
tonight. Heavy rain is also possible and could lead to localized
flash flooding.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Monday, with the best chances from Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Damaging wind is the main concern, though a few storms may
produce large hail. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times and
may result in additional flooding.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely late this afternoon and evening,
with the most likely time frame between 4 pm and 9 pm.

A conference call for emergency managers and broadcast media will
be held at 10 am.

Geelhart