Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The short term will be dominated by a shortwave that has the
potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
The instability parameters are marginal at best, with the MLCAPE
of 1500 J/kg and weak shear not able to support much in the way of
severe wind/hail. However, the Non-Supercell Tornado (NST)
parameter on SPC's website is showing increased potential for a
few quick spin-up tornadoes under some of the stronger updrafts.
So far, only a couple of funnels have been reported. Circulations
are being monitored, and the trends are for a quick
intensification and then weakening. That is supported by the lower
CAPE values present. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch just south of
our area has better instability and is also in the path of
stronger 500mb speed max, increasing shear in that area.

The main push of rain and storms for areas south of I-74 looks to
continue through around 03z/10pm, then advances into Indiana. The
northern counties look to remain under the influence of the 500mb
shortwave through around 09z/4am, before the steadier rains shift
east into northern Indiana. Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2"
will support very efficient rainfall production from any stronger
storm cells. Therefore, the FF Watch was expanded northward to
include the counties of Peoria, Woodford, Tazewell and McLean
earlier this afternoon. The watch ending was kept at 18z tomorrow,
but most areas should be able to be cancelled early, if current
model solutions are correct about a dry Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The extended forecast will be dominated by rain chances through
Sunday night, as the forecast area remains under the influence of
the back side of an upper level trough. The area will experiencing
a warming trend and increasing humidity, as the upper ridge inches
into Illinois from the west. However, the storm track will remain
active on the leading edge of that ridge, guiding several waves of
energy across central Illinois from Friday afternoon through
Monday night. The target periods for more widespread rain/storms
looks to be Friday night, Saturday night-Sunday, and in eastern
Illinois on Monday. While the models have generally overdone the
coverage of 2+" rainfall areas that far out, we are seeing more
potential for widespread 2" rainfall amounts across all of our
forecast area during the Fri night-Monday time frame.

Increasing heat and humidity will be noticeable on Saturday and
Sunday, when heat indices climb into the mid to upper 90s in some
locations. Those numbers are highly dependent on if any extended
periods of sunshine can develop. In any case, dewpoints in the 70
to 75 deg range will be well above anything we have seen in quite
a while.

A break in the rain chances looks to develop for Wednesday, as a
progressive trough shifts east of Illinois and upper level ridging
becomes established farther north into Illinois.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

An MCV lifting across central Illinois this afternoon is
triggering a line of showers/storms from NW to SE. The line has
embedded periods of heavy rain, which has been reducing visibility
to 3/4SM in heavy rain at times. Ceilings have briefly dipped to
MVFR during any storms to this point, and that potential will
increase with the next wave of rain and storms for later this
afternoon into evening. An extended period of rain/storm potential
will be present through this evening, as an upper level wave
progresses from west to east across Illinois. Storm chances will
diminish by mid to late evening, with lingering rain showers and
lowering ceilings forecast by the CAMs. A solid MVFR cloud deck is
projected to start out the day on Thursday, as winds turn
northwest.

Winds this afternoon will have most areas seeing east to
southeast flow. As the low pushes across IL, winds will back to
the northeast, but sustain below 10kt in general during that time.
As the storm and rain chances subside later tonight into Thursday,
winds will become N to NW with time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

ILZ027-028-030-201100-
Knox-Marshall-Stark-
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight. Severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms will occur Friday through Monday.
There is a risk for severe weather Friday night: however, it is
still too early to determine any potential risks over the weekend.
Heavy rainfall will be likely through the period...with early
indications suggesting storm total rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches
Friday night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061-201100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Fulton-Logan-
Macon-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-
Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight. Severe
weather is not expected: however, a few thunderstorms with
excessive rainfall rates could produce localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms will occur Friday through Monday.
There is a risk for severe weather Friday night: however, it is
still too early to determine any potential risks over the weekend.
Heavy rainfall will be likely through the period...with early
indications suggesting storm total rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches
Friday night through Monday.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River from
Havana downstream through at least early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-201100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight. Some of
the storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts and large
hail through early this evening. Localized flash flooding will be
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Several rounds of thunderstorms will occur Friday through Monday.
There is a risk for severe weather Friday night: however, it is
still too early to determine any potential risks over the weekend.
Heavy rainfall will be likely through the period...with early
indications suggesting storm total rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches
Friday night through Monday.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers for several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORTON                  40.61N 89.47W
06/19/2019                   TAZEWELL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES OF MOVING WATER DUE TO
            HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PEKIN                   40.57N 89.63W
06/19/2019                   TAZEWELL           IL   PUBLIC

            MANHOLE COVERS BLOWN OFF, WATER FLOWING 1000-2000 GAL/MIN
            AT N 2ND ST

&&

VWILSON